This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was hilarious – the Patriots, Vikings and Ravens were all dead to rights, but somehow prevailed, keeping virtually every team alive, as the Bucs and Cowboys cruised to easy wins.
Let's take a look at Week 6:
|Team||Opponent||%Taken*||Vegas ML**||Vegas Odds||Expected Loss|
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** Game in London
The Rams and Colts stand apart, both in winning percentage and usage. The question is whether the Chiefs, the next best choice, make sense from a pot-odds perspective.
A Rams win/Chiefs loss is .85*.25 = 21.25%. A Chiefs Win/Rams loss is 11.25%. The ratio of 21.25/11.25 = 1.89.
In our hypothetical $10 buy-in, 100-person pool, if the Rams win/Chiefs lose, 12 are out on the Chiefs and 11 on other teams, for a total of 23. 100-23 = 77, $1000/77 = $12.99.
If the Chiefs win/Rams lose, 37 are out on the Rams plus 11 on other teams for a total of 48. $1000/52 = $19.23. The ratio of $19.23/$12.99 = 1.48.
The risk ratio is 1.89, reward only 1.48. That