This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 21.10% | 425 | 80.95% | 4.02 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 17.90% | 1450 | 93.55% | 1.15 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 12.90% | 385 | 79.38% | 2.66 |
| STEELERS | Packers | 12.20% | 800 | 88.89% | 1.36 |
| CHIEFS | Bills | 9.20% | 450 | 81.82% | 1.67 |
| EAGLES | Bears | 8.60% | 825 | 89.19% | 0.93 |
| REDSKINS | Giants | 7.40% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.85 |
| RAVENS | Texans | 4.00% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.03 |
| Seahawks | 49ERS | 2.60% | 295 | 74.68% | 0.66 |
| Panthers | JETS | 1.80% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.59 |
| RAIDERS | Broncos | 0.80% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.25 |
| COWBOYS | Chargers | 0.30% | 91 | 47.64% | 0.16 |
| Titans | COLTS | 0.30% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.11 |
| Jaguars | CARDINALS | 0.20% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.07 |
| Vikings | LIONS | 0.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.08 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week is so full of good choices and the ownership is so dispersed, you really have to look at who's available for the remaining survivors in your pool. The overall polling probably won't help much, and if multiple good choices are available to your competition, just go with the team you think is most likely to prevail.
My Picks
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a good game, is at home and the Steelers have had extra rest against a Packers team that doesn't do anything particularly well. I give
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 21.10% | 425 | 80.95% | 4.02 |
| PATRIOTS | Dolphins | 17.90% | 1450 | 93.55% | 1.15 |
| BENGALS | Browns | 12.90% | 385 | 79.38% | 2.66 |
| STEELERS | Packers | 12.20% | 800 | 88.89% | 1.36 |
| CHIEFS | Bills | 9.20% | 450 | 81.82% | 1.67 |
| EAGLES | Bears | 8.60% | 825 | 89.19% | 0.93 |
| REDSKINS | Giants | 7.40% | 300 | 75.00% | 1.85 |
| RAVENS | Texans | 4.00% | 290 | 74.36% | 1.03 |
| Seahawks | 49ERS | 2.60% | 295 | 74.68% | 0.66 |
| Panthers | JETS | 1.80% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.59 |
| RAIDERS | Broncos | 0.80% | 220 | 68.75% | 0.25 |
| COWBOYS | Chargers | 0.30% | 91 | 47.64% | 0.16 |
| Titans | COLTS | 0.30% | 175 | 63.64% | 0.11 |
| Jaguars | CARDINALS | 0.20% | 205 | 67.21% | 0.07 |
| Vikings | LIONS | 0.20% | 140 | 58.33% | 0.08 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This week is so full of good choices and the ownership is so dispersed, you really have to look at who's available for the remaining survivors in your pool. The overall polling probably won't help much, and if multiple good choices are available to your competition, just go with the team you think is most likely to prevail.
My Picks
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a good game, is at home and the Steelers have had extra rest against a Packers team that doesn't do anything particularly well. I give the Steelers a 90 percent chance to win this game.
2. New England Patriots
The Patriots are hitting on all cylinders and face a soft Dolphins team that hasn't shown up the last couple weeks. The familiarity between these teams is a small wild card, but it's a minor concern. I give the Patriots a 90 percent chance to win this game.
3. Philadelphia Eagles
The Bears can run the ball and have been stout on defense at times, but the Eagles are so solid on both sides of the ball and are at home. I give the Eagles an 88 percent chance to win this game.
4. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals have disappointed for much of the year, but their defense is solid, and they should be able to move the ball against a weak Browns pass defense at home. I give Cincinnati a 77 percent chance to win this game.
5. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens can't advance the ball to save their lives, but their defense is among the league's best and should have its way at home against the Tom Savage-led Texans. I give them a 76 percent chance to win this game.
6. Atlanta Falcons
The Bucs are weak and on the road, and the Falcons have played much better of late. But this is a division game, Atlanta's defense is far from stout, and Ryan Fitzpatrick gives Tampa a puncher's chance. I give the Falcons a 77 percent chance to win this game.
7. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks almost lost at home to the 49ers the first time around, and now they're suffering from significant injuries to their secondary. I don't think San Francisco is the team to exploit it, however, and I expect Russell Wilson to roll against a weak 49ers defense. I give the Seahawks a 74 percent chance to win this game.
8. Washington Redskins
The Giants haven't packed it in yet, and the Redskins offense is dealing with a ton of injuries, but Washington is at home on the short week, has the better quarterback and probably the better defense too. I give the Redskins a 74 percent chance to win this game.
9. Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton typically plays better against mediocre competition, and the Panthers defense is very good. I give them a 72 percent chance to win this game.
10. Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs are big favorites, but with Tyrod Taylor starting, the Bills could easily hang around - especially if weather is an issue. I give the Chiefs a 63 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions:
Jacksonville Jaguars - Their offense is terrible, and they're on the road against a team that's not a doormat.
Oakland Raiders - The Raiders defense is among the worst in the league, something that could be a problem even against Paxton Lynch.
Tennessee Titans - The Titans aren't good enough on either side of the ball to trust on the road against a Colts team with an improving young quarterback.
