This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The BNP Paribas Open continues on the hard courts of Indian Wells, California on Sunday with men's second-round and women's third-round matches. All of the women have already had a chance to take the court, while this will still be the first action for the men's seeds, who received first-round byes. A couple of Americans are in prime position to notch quality wins, while a pair of favored women at the opposite ends of their careers should have no trouble breezing through their third-round matches at the first ATP Masters 1000 and second WTA 1000 tournament of 2022. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Now that we're getting into the meat of the tournament, we've gotten a chance to see the players in action and assess their form. That small-sample knowledge, coupled with the larger contexts of players' careers and recent performances should help identify which favorites are likely to cruise to victory and which underdogs are ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Alison Riske (+180) vs. Madison Keys
Riske just pulled off one of the most improbable comebacks you'll ever see, storming back from 6-0, 3-0 down for a 0-6, 6-3, 6-1 victory over No. 8 seed Garbine Muguruza. She'll be playing with house money in this all-American matchup against the 25th-seeded Keys. Keys defeated Riske 6-1, 6-2 in the Adelaide final as part of her 11-2 run in Australia to start the year, but she's slumped to a 1-2 record since then, playing tennis reminiscent of a forgettable 2021 campaign in which Keys went just 11-15, including a 1-7 finish to the year. If Keys has regressed back to her 2021 form, Riske has a serious chance to pull off the upset here.
Tommy Paul (+320) vs. Alexander Zverev
Zverev has never been viewed as particularly mentally strong, and his fragile psyche's in a particularly vulnerable place after his outburst at the chair umpire at a doubles match at the Mexican Open got him disqualified from the singles and has him on probation for the next year. His first match since then will be against a tricky opponent in Paul, who beat Zverev 6-3, 6-4 on the hard courts of Acapulco in their only previous meeting in 2020. The crowd will be on the 24-year-old American's side, and Paul has the weapons to hang with the big boys when he's on his game.
Honorable Mention:
Steve Johnson (+160) vs. Aslan Karatsev
Lock It In
Emma Raducanu (-230) vs. Petra Martic
Raducanu showed that she's over her recent injuries with a convincing 6-1, 3-6, 6-1 second-round win over Caroline Garcia, and the 19-year-old Brit faces a less tricky opponent in the third round. Martic's best days appear to be behind her at age 31, as the former top-20 player has slipped to No. 79 in the world due to a 4-11 record in her last 15 matches coming into this tournament. Martic defeated just one top-100 opponent over that stretch, while Raducanu has played as well as anyone in the world when healthy over the same span.
Kaia Kanepi (-350) vs. Harriet Dart
Kanepi only plays the bigger tournaments at this stage of her career, so her No. 63 ranking is deceiving. The 36-year-old Estonian is still among the toughest outs on the WTA Tour, as she's 7-2 in 2022 with wins over Angelique Kerber, Aryna Sabalenka and, most recently, Belinda Bencic. Dart has taken advantage of a favorable draw; her first-round opponent retired mid-match before the 122nd-ranked Brit upset the slumping Elina Svitolina, who's just 1-5 against top-100 opponents this year. Kanepi's the superior player, and she couldn't ask for a more comfortable third-round draw.
Honorable Mention:
Taylor Fritz (-400) vs. Kamil Majchrzak
Value Bet
Diego Schwartzman (-170) vs. Emil Ruusuvuori
Ruusuvuori is a promising young player, but the 22-year-old Finn hasn't quite proven ready to hang with the big boys – luckily for the 5-foot-7 Schwartzman, I mean that figuratively. All three top-30 foes to face Ruusovuori have defeated him this year, and his losing streak against such quality of competition stretches back five matches since a September win over Aslan Karatsev in Kazakhstan. Schwartzman's ranked in the top half of the top 30, and the hard-working Argentine's always a tough out, as indicated by his solid 12-5 record this season.
Honorable Mention:
Marin Cilic (-150) vs. Miomir Kecmanovic
