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Past Fantasy Outlooks
Dubnyk continues to shine in a Wild jersey, racking up more than 30 wins and exactly five shutouts for the third straight season while recording strong ratios -- his 2.52 GAA was actually his worst performance in that category since he came to Minnesota, even it ranked a respectable 13th among goalies who played in at least 30 games last year. The 32-year-old benefits from playing behind a blue line anchored by two legitimate studs in Ryan Suter and Mathew Dumba, and his massive 6-6 frame and airtight positional play make him tough to beat even when an attacker does find some open ice. The Wild will probably continue to look for opportunities to scale back his workload, but barring an injury he'll once again head into the regular season as a viable Vezina Trophy candidate.
Merely good in 2015-16 after being nearly unbeatable following his trade to Minnesota the season before, Dubnyk busted out of the gate last season and stayed red hot for a while -- over his first 51 appearances, he went 35-12-3 with a 1.99 GAA and .934 save percentage, setting himself up as a serious candidate for the Vezina Trophy. However, he took a precipitous tumble in March and April, posting a 5-7-2 record with a 3.16 GAA and .883 save percentage, though he did look better in the playoffs despite the Wild’s five-game elimination in the first round. While Dubnyk certainly burned his fantasy owners by collapsing on them in the fantasy playoffs, it's hard to find flaws in his final numbers: 40 wins, a 2.25 GAA and a .923 save mark. Finishing fifth in the Vezina voting certainly isn't a bad show, and with the Wild’s offensive and core intact with room for growth, the 31-year-old netminder should be in for another great year, though the team may look to dial his workload back just a bit to avoid another late fade.
It shouldn’t be any surprise that Dubnyk experienced regression last year after his magical 39-game post-trade run with the Wild two seasons ago. But even while doing so, he remained an eminently useful fantasy goalie, taking on a hefty 66-start workload and responding with a .918 save percentage and 2.33 GAA – numbers quite comparable to those of more respected goalies like Jonathan Quick. The Wild as a team had a bit of a tough 2015-16 even though they made the postseason – they were the bottom-seeded playoff team in the Western Conference, nine points below the No. 7 Predators, and they lost more games than they won. That said, improved health team-wide as well as continued development by the Wild’s developing young blue-line crew could help Dubnyk boost his own stats a bit this year.
Dubnyk was one of the NHL's biggest revelations last season, as he almost single-handedly carried the Wild into the playoffs. After toiling away in three different organizations in 2013-14 before landing as the backup for Arizona to open the past season, Dubnyk was traded for virtually nothing to the Wild in January. From there, he went on a tear the likes of which are rarely seen. In 39 games for the Wild, he posted a 1.78 GAA and a .936 save percentage with five shutouts. Even including his time spent in Arizona, Dubnyk finished second in GAA and save percentag (trailing only Vezina winner Carey Price) en route to winning the Masterson Trophy, awarded for perseverance. After signing a lucrative contract extension this summer, it will be interesting to see if Dubnyk is able to carry over his tremendous success from last season, or if he was simply a flash in the pan that caught fire for a few months. With an enormous frame at 6-foot-6 and 210 pounds, Dubnyk has the measurables to remain among the league's top goalies, but if he struggles right away to begin the upcoming season, it may not be long before the Wild regret extending him.
Dubnyk had a disappointing season in 2013-14, registering an .894 save percentage in 32 games with the Oilers before being traded to Nashville, where he sat on the bench for all but two games before he was dealt again to the Canadiens' AHL affiliate. Now he comes into Arizona to play backup to Mike Smith with no pressure and a chance to reestablish himself as a viable NHL goaltender. He has a long way to go to do that, but working with netminding guru Sean Burke -- who has a reputation for helping out tall goalies -- sure can't hurt.
Dubnyk had a bit of a mixed bag of a season last year. He went 14-16 with a 2.57 GAA and .920 SV% -- certainly not bad numbers, but ones that need to improve. But the Oilers' defense is the weakest part of the team and that means that Dubnyk will more than likely see his fair share of rubber. He's also not entrenched as the long-term starting goaltender for the team -- remember the Oilers were in on the Cory Schneider talks on draft day -- which means any kind of slump could see the team start Jason LaBarbera. The Oilers are under some pressure to make the playoffs this season, or at the very least, be in the hunt. Dubnyk could have a short rope if he doesn't get off to a good start. He might be worth a spot as your second goalie, but only if you have an absolute sure thing in the top seat.
Dubnyk went 20-20-3 last season with Edmonton with a 2.67 GAA and .914 save percentage, very respectable numbers for a team that had major holes on defense. The Oilers are getting better, especially on offense, but how much better their defense will be remains to be seen. As the defense goes, so goes Dubnyk -- for good and bad. There's also the looming shadow of Nikolai Khabibulin, who is nowhere near the goaltender he used to be, but will still see plenty of time between the pipes as the Oilers look to justify his contract. In a perfect world, Dubnyk would see 75 to 80 percent of the starts in goal, but that number could be closer to 60 percent with the Bulin Wall still in town.
Don't let Dubnyk's subpar numbers from last season (12-13, 2.71 GAA, 91.6 SV%) fool you. He outplayed Nikolai Khabibulin and may have earned the right to be the starter this season. The Oilers' decision on whether to stick with the veteran Khabibulin or go with Dubnyk promises to be one of the bigger questions in training camp. Edmonton is a young, up-and-coming team, and may prefer to have a young goalie grow with that nucleus. However, the defense is still a work in progress and there will be games where Dubnyk will see more rubber than a tire factory, but he is a tender worth watching in 2011-12.
Dubnyk entered last season being no better than third on the Oilers depth chart and although his final numbers were nothing to crow about, 4-10-2, 3.57 GAA, 88.9 SV%, he seems to be the backup to starter Nikolai Khabibulin entering training camp. Ordinarily this may not mean all that much, but with Khabibulin involved in a DWI trial that could spill into training camp or even into the regular season, Dubnyk could play more than first thought.
Dubnyk had a 27-58-2 record with a 3.02 goals against average and a .905 save percentage with AHL Springield in the past two years. He will once again be the main man in net at Springfield.
Could be the future goalie for the Oilers, but still needs some seasoning.
The future of Edmonton goaltending, Dubnyk's huge frame offers up little daylight for shooters. He still has some maturation to undergo, but that's nothing a year or two in the AHL won't cure.
Dubnyk had a decent training camp heading into the 2006-07 season. This will be his first in the AHL (played in the WHL the previous five seasons). He is a possible #1 netminder for Edmonton down the road.