DraftKings NFL: Week 11 Tournament Guide

DraftKings NFL: Week 11 Tournament Guide

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Sunday's slate features 12 games. The first thing that stands out is that there are mostly low totals, except for the Chiefs-Cowboys, which has a whopping 56-point total. That game will popular and rightly so. If you choose to target it, make sure the rest of your lineup isn't too chalky or use a more unconventional stack to get some leverage. Looking elsewhere, AJ Dillon ($6,200) will be a popular option in the absence of Aaron Jones while Christian McCaffrey has reclaimed his spot as the top option in DFS after putting up 26 floor points last week. Remember to avoid putting cash-game lineups in GPPs. More than 50 people entered the exact same lineup in the $50 single entry GPP last week and I assume there were just as many duplicates in the lower stakes. It featured Dak Prescott without a Cowboys pass-catcher. Those types of lineups without correlation and/or leverage have very little to chance to win and on the off change that they do, you don't want to split first place with a bunch of other people. The NFL is especially unpredictable. It's always a good idea to avoid some of the chalk and take some chances on less popular players. Focus on passing-stacks with a run-back from the opposing team. Good Luck!

Note: All prices listed come from DraftKings, but most of the logic can be applied to other sites across the DFS industry. Discussion is limited to players from the "main slate" of games kicking off at 1 p.m., 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. EST on Sunday. The strategy below is meant for large-field tournaments, where payouts typically are limited to ~20 percent of lineups, with the vast majority concentrated at the very top.

The Games

45Baltimore Ravens25.25Chicago Bears19.75
47.5Green Bay Packers24.5Minnesota Vikings23
45Miami Dolphins24.25New York Jets20.75
43.5New Orleans Saints20.75Philadelphia Eagles22.75
49.5Indianapolis Colts21.25Buffalo Bills28.25
43.5Detroit Lions16Cleveland Browns27.5
43Washington FT20Carolina Panthers23
45.5San Francisco 49ers26Jacksonville Jaguars19.5
44.5Houston Texans17.25Tennessee Titans27.25
50Cincinnati Bengals25.5Las Vegas Raiders24.5
48.5Arizona Cardinals25.25Seattle Seahawks23.25
56Dallas Cowboys26.75Kansas City Chiefs29.25

Point-Per-Dollar Value

These are the players with the best projections relative to their salaries — good plays both for cash games and large-field tournaments. While we don't want our GPP lineups to look like cash-game lineups top to bottom, there's nothing wrong with using a few chalky plays. These players, along with a couple passing-game stacks, tend to form the core that remains fairly consistent throughout my lineups.

With Aaron Jones out for the Packers, Dillon will see most of the work at running back. He's looked great this season in a complimentary role and is coming off his best game last week against the Seahawks when he rushed for 66 yards and two touchdowns while catching two passes for 62 yards. He's drawn six targets the last two weeks, so expect to see him involved in the receiving game as well. With Jones out, Dillon's salary is just too cheap for a feature role. He's the first player in my cash lineup. 

Higgins continues to be underpriced week after week. He's averaging more than nine targets per game over his last three and he's scored double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season. I'd guess that his salary stays the same because he hasn't caught a touchdown since Week 2 but that will change soon. The Bengals are fresh off a bye and have a favorable matchup against the Raiders, who just got torched by Mahomes on Sunday night. Higgins is the first WR in my cash lineup. 

Other Cash-Game Options

QB Patrick Mahomes vs. DAL ($7,600)

QB Dak Prescott at KC ($7,200)

QB Joe Burrow at LV ($6,600)

QB Tua Tagovailoa at NYJ ($5,500)

QB Cam Newton vs. WAS ($5,100)

RB Christian McCaffrey vs. WAS ($8,900)

RB Nick Chubb vs. DET ($7,800)

RB Ezekiel Elliott at KC ($7,700)

RB D'Andre Swift at CLE ($7,000)

RB James Conner at SEA ($6,100)

RB Myles Gaskin at NYJ ($5,700)

RB David Montgomery vs. BAL ($5,500)

RB Mark Ingram at PHI ($5,400)

RB Jeff Wilson at JAX ($5,100)

WR Davante Adams at MIN ($8,400)

WR Tyreek Hill vs. DAL ($8,200)

WR Ja'Marr Chase at LV ($7,200)

WR DK Metcalf vs. ARI ($6,800)

WR Tyler Lockett at ARI ($6,000)

WR Hunter Renfrow at CIN ($5,800)

WR Jaylen Waddle at NYJ ($5,600)

WR Michael Gallup at KC ($4,200)

TE Travis Kelce vs. DAL ($7,100)

TE Darren Waller vs. CIN ($6,100)

TE Dan Arnold vs. SF ($4,100)

TE Cole Kmet vs. BAL ($3,400)

D/ST Cleveland Browns vs. DET ($3,100)

Passing-Game Stacks

Stacks are the centerpiece of tournament lineups, seeking to take advantage of positive correlations between players. It rarely makes sense to use a quarterback without one or two of his pass catchers, even if the player in question scores a decent portion of his fantasy points with his legs. Ideally, a stack also includes a pass catcher from the other side of the game, hoping to take advantage of a back-and-forth shootout. (Implied team totals are listed in parentheses.)

Dallas Cowboys (26.75) at Kansas City Chiefs (29.25)

Cowboys:

Dallas got back on track last week with a 43-3 drubbing of the Falcons. Dak Prescott ($7,200) topped 25 fantasy points for the fourth time in eight games this season. Sunday's matchup against the Chiefs has a 56-point total, the highest on the slate by a wide margin. Kansas City's defense has given up some big scores to QBs and this game has shootout written all over it. CeeDee Lamb ($7,600) had six catches for 94 yards and two TDs last week. It was the third time in four games that he's eclipsed 20 fantasy points. Amari Cooper (COVID-19) is out, which means more targets for the remaining Cowboys pass-catchers. Michael Gallup ($4,200) looked good in his return from a calf injury last week, catching three of five targets for 42 yards. He has big play potential for a bargain salary. I'd expect him to benefit most from Cooper's absence. Dalton Schultz ($4,600) probably gets a few more looks as well and it's nice too see him a few hundred dollars cheaper than in recent weeks. With so many people focused on the passing attacks in this game, Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700) could offer leverage in tournaments. He had two short rushing TDs last week and should have similar opportunities around the goal line. 

Chiefs:

The Chiefs have the highest implied team total. They're fresh off their best performance of the season Sunday night when they hung 41 points on the Raiders. Patrick Mahomes ($7,600) threw for 406 yards and five touchdowns to put up 39 DK points. From a point-per-dollar perspective, he looks like the top QB option on the slate. Tyreek Hill ($8,200) is averaging 11 targets per game this season. He's shown to be matchup-proof and has as much upside if not more than any player on the slate. Travis Kelce ($7,100) seems like somewhat of a bargain as we'd grown accustomed to seeing his salary around $8K. He looked like his former self with eight catches and 119 yards last week. Mecole Hardman ($4,000) and Byron Pringle ($3,400) are options for large-field GPPs but neither has much of a floor. The status of Clyde Edwards-Helaire will be important to monitor. If he's out, Darrel Williams ($5,400) becomes one of the better cheap value options at running back. He caught nine passes for 101 yards last week and scored at least 17 DK points for the third time in five games. He's still a viable option if Edwards-Helaire is active but limited. 

  • Favorite Chiefs Stack: QB Mahomes + WR Hill + TE Kelce + WR Gallup
  • Favorite Cowboys Stack: QB Prescott + WR Lamb + WR Gallup + TE Kelce or WR Hill

Cincinnati Bengals (25.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (24.5)

Bengals:

I prefer the Cincinnati side in this matchup. The Bengals are fresh off a bye and looking rebound after two disappointing losses while the Raiders just got trounced by the Chiefs on Sunday night. Joe Burrow ($6,600) is coming off his worst performance the season but prior to that had five consecutive games with at least 20 fantasy points. Ja'Marr Chase ($7,200) is one the top deep threats in the league and has seen a slight drop in salary. He's topped 30 fantasy points in two of his last five games. Tee Higgins ($5,400) continues to be a bargain. He has 29 targets the last three weeks and looks like one of top overall values on the slate. Tyler Boyd ($4,800) will go overlooked, but might see a few extra targets if the Raiders stellar pass rush forces Burrow into some quick throws. C.J. Uzomah ($3,500) could offer some leverage at a tight end position that is weak overall, especially in the cheap range. He's caught multiple TDs in a game twice already this season. Few will choose to roster a priced-up Joe Mixon ($7,600), but he's put up 25-plus DK points in three of his last four and has drawn at least five targets in each of those games. 

Raiders:

Again, this stack is more about the Bengals, but the Raiders have some appealing run-back options. Hunter Renfrow ($5,800) has caught seven passes in three consecutive games and has touchdowns in his last two. Darren Waller ($6,100) has drawn at least seven targets in seven of eight games this season. He's considerable upside, especially if the Raiders are playing from behind. Bryan Edwards ($4,100) had his best game of the season last week, catching three balls for 88 yards and a touchdown. He should continue to see more opportunities in the absence of Henry Ruggs

  • Favorite Stack: QB Burrow + WR Chase + WR Higgins + WR Edwards

Other Stacks to Consider

QB Josh Allen + WR Stefon Diggs + WR Michael Pittman

QB Aaron Rodgers + WR Davante Adams + RB Dalvin Cook or WR Justin Jefferson

QB Ryan Tannehill + WR A.J. Brown + WR Brandin Cooks +/- WR Marcus Johnson

QB Russell Wilson + WR DK Metcalf + RB James Conner +/- TE Gerald Everett

QB Russell Wilson + WR Tyler Lockett + RB James Conner +/- TE Gerald Everett

QB Carson Wentz + WR Stefon Diggs + WR Michael Pittman

QB Tua Tagovailoa + WR Jaylen Waddle + WR Corey Davis/WR Jamison Crowder +/- TE Mike Gesicki

High-Priced Heroes

McCaffrey looked back to his best last week, rushing 13 times for 95 yards and catching 10 passes for 66 yards on his way to scoring 26 fantasy points without a touchdown. He would've had an even bigger game had he not sat out the fourth quarter due to the blowout. His touchdown equity suffers a bit with Cam Newton stealing goal-line carries, but Newton likes to target him in the passing game. The Panthers have a favorable matchup at home against a Washington defense that's missing its top two defensive linemen. All signs points to this being a great spot for a healthy McCaffrey. 

Hill is averaging a whopping 11 targets per game this season. He's coming off a two-touchdown performance on Sunday night when the Chiefs looked much improved as they blew out the Raiders. The matchup against Dallas is unquestionably the best spot on the slate as it features a massive 56-point total. Of course, Hill makes sense paired with Mahomes, but he can also be rostered opposite Dak Prescott in Cowboys stacks or even as a one-off just to get some exposure to the best game environment. 

Honorable Mentions: Dalvin Cook, MIN vs. GB ($8,200); Davante Adams, GB at MIN ($8,400)

Fading the Field

Every week we see at least one or two players who are popular without the backing of a top point-per-dollar projection. Recency bias is often to blame, but in some cases it even makes sense to fade a player with a strong projection, particularly when there are good alternatives at the same position and price range.

Taylor has been the best running back in DFS this season. He's now scored at least 20 DK points in seven consecutive games, topping 30 three times in that span. There are a few reasons I'm fading him this week. The matchup away to Buffalo is one of the worst spots in the league. The Bills have a good defense and the Colts are expected to be trailing, which would limit the run game. I'd prefer rostering Dalvin Cook ($8,200), who crushed the Packers last season. I also want to maximize exposure to Christian McCaffrey ($8,900). Rostering Taylor would mean having less of McCaffrey and Cook, as well the $7K range. I'll fade him, however the argument to play him is that he'll be the least popular of all the top running backs.  

The Smash Spot

(Players in favorable positions to significantly outperform their salary)

Chase is coming off his worst DFS performance of the season two weeks ago when he caught six passes for 49 yards and failed to record double-digit DK points for the first time. He still drew 13 targets, however. And now he's $400 cheaper with the Bengals coming off a bye and traveling to face the Raiders, who just got lit up by the Chiefs on Sunday night. Chase has put up 30-plus fantasy points in two of his last five games and has upside for 100-plus yards and multiple TDs in this spot. 

Honorable Mentions: Nick Chubb, CLE vs. DET ($7,800); CeeDee Lamb, DAL at KC ($7,600)

The Bargain Bin

QB Derek Carr vs. CIN ($5,900)

QB Tua Tagovailoa at NYJ ($5,500)

QB Carson Wentz at BUF ($5,500)

QB Cam Newton vs. WAS ($5,100)

RB Michael Carter vs MIA ($5,800)

RB David Montgomery vs. BAL ($5,500)

RB Darrel Williams vs. DAL ($5,400)

RB Mark Ingram at PHI ($5,400)

RB Jeff Wilson at JAX ($5,100)

RB D'Onta Foreman vs. HOU ($4,900)

WR Tyler Boyd at LV ($4,800)

WR Cole Beasley vs IND ($4,800)

WR A.J. Green ($4,600), if Kyler Murray starts

WR Michael Gallup at KC ($4,200)

WR Bryan Edwards vs. CIN ($4,100)

WR Mecole Hardman vs. DAL ($4,000)

WR Marcus Johnson vs. HOU ($3,500)

TE Cole Kmet vs. BAL ($3,400)

TE Gerald Everett vs. ARI ($3,100)

Injury Situations

Kamara is out, meaning Mark Ingram ($5,400) will get another start. He did well in that role last week, rushing 14 times for 47 yards and a touchdown while catching four of seven targets for 61 yards. He makes for a viable option in cash-games and tournaments. 

Mitchell is doubtful. If he doesn't play, Jeff Wilson ($5,100) would likely see most of the work at running back. The salary is cheap and the matchup against the Jaguars is favorable. He'd make for a decent option in both cash-games and tournaments if it's announced that he's starting. 

Hopkins is out while Kyler Murray (ankle) will be a game-time decision. I'd have interest in Christian Kirk ($5,700) and A.J. Green ($4,600), but only if Murray starts. 

Cooper is out. That should mean a few extra targets for the likes of CeeDee Lamb ($7,600), Michael Gallup ($4,200) and Dalton Schultz ($4,600). All of them get a bump for what was already a great spot against the Chiefs. 

Weather Watch

Nothing to be overly concerned about. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only NFL Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire NFL fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Ryan Belongia
Ryan has a background in accounting, finance and poker. He's been playing DFS full-time since 2018. A multiple-time King of the Pitch finalist, Ryan's been ranked inside the Top 5 on the RG Soccer Leaderboard for three years running. Originally from Wisconsin, he moved to London in 2019 for the futbol.
DraftKings NFL: Week 13 Tournament Breakdown
DraftKings NFL: Week 13 Tournament Breakdown
Corner Report: Week 13
Corner Report: Week 13
OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 13 Picks
OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 13 Picks
Fading Foster Moreau- Week 13 DFS (Video)
Fading Foster Moreau- Week 13 DFS (Video)
FanDuel Fantasy Football: Week 13 Picks
FanDuel Fantasy Football: Week 13 Picks
Thursday Night Observations
Thursday Night Observations