DraftKings NFL: Divisional Round Picks

DraftKings NFL: Divisional Round Picks

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

GAMES (EST)

  • Saturday, 4:35 p.m: Vikings at 49ers (-7, O/U 44.0 on DraftKings Sportsbook)
  • Saturday, 8:15 p.m: Titans at Ravens (-9.5, O/U 47.0)
  • Sunday, 3:05 p.m: Texans at Chiefs (-9.5, O/U 51.0)
  • Sunday, 6:40 p.m: Seahawks at Packers (-4.0, O/U 47.0)

QUARTERBACKS

Lamar Jackson, BAL vs. TEN ($8,400): It's pretty rare to see a quarterback as the most expensive player on a multi-game slate, but here we are with Jackson, who led the NFL with 36 passing touchdowns despite the 26th-most pass attempts, and he had the sixth-most rushing yards (1,206) on the 23rd-most rushes. Additionally, only 13 players had more than his seven rushing touchdowns, he co-led the league with 11 runs of at least 20 yards, and his five games with at least 100 rushing yards were tied for the sixth-most in the league. So, we get excellent running back production while also having access to any passing yards and touchdowns. Needless to say, Jackson could be the highest-owned player in many game types, with really the only reason to fade him because of that high ownership.

Jimmy Garoppolo, SF vs. MIN ($5,600): Only four quarterbacks in the NFL had more passing touchdowns than Garoppolo, who isn't a high-volume passer by any means, finishing 19th in pass attempts and 12th in passing yards. The 49ers are strong home favorites against the Vikings, who finished the season with five consecutive games allowing one or zero passing touchdowns while holding quarterbacks to less than 220 yards in four of those games. Nevertheless, the low salary on Garoppolo is more attractive than paying down for Ryan Tannehill ($5,400) or Kirk Cousins ($5,700), who face the two best defenses in the league, while those who don't want to pay for Jackson or Patrick Mahomes ($7,500) should probably focus on Russell Wilson ($6,600) or Deshaun Watson ($6,700) over Aaron Rodgers ($6,500).

RUNNING BACKS

Aaron Jones, GB vs. SEA ($7,400): Derrick Henry ($8,200) and Dalvin Cook ($8,000) are obviously great, but their matchups are far from as good as Jones' against a Seahawks defense that allowed multiple running back touchdowns eight times in the regular season, including each of the last four. Cook figures to be heavily involved even if the 49ers get out ahead of the Vikings, while the Titans' best plan against the Ravens has to be to use Henry as much as possible early on to keep Jackson off the field. However, if the Ravens can get ahead big early, Henry's day could be over. Meanwhile, Jones has seems to have finally taken over the Packers' backfield, rushing 23 and 25 times in the past two games, respectively, a span that also saw him catch four of nine targets for 49 receiving yards.

Raheem Mostert, SF vs. MIN ($5,800): Volume is always going to be an issue for Mostert, even though he's become the lead back for a team that finished second in the NFL in rushing attempts this season, only trailing the Ravens, while leading the league with 23 rushing touchdowns. Mostert is usually good for around two targets per game, which certainly helps since he rarely even gets 15 carries thanks to Tevin Coleman ($3,500) and Matt Breida ($3,300) poaching touches, but in a game the 49ers figures to be ahead in, Mostert makes plenty of sense based on his salary. Another guy who should get a majority of his team's backfield touches is Damien Williams ($6,000), who could lose a few opportunities to LeSean McCoy ($4,400), but with the way Mahomes has been throwing lately, Williams figures to be plenty involved in a game the Chiefs are nearly double-digit favorites in.

Gus Edwards, BAL vs. TEN ($4,900): Consideration for Edwards isn't for the faint of heart, as Mark Ingram II ($6,700) is expected to play despite being listed as questionable and only practicing once on a limited basis this week. However, the Ravens should control this game (they're 9.5-point favorites, after all) and if they get out ahead big enough, they might be more comfortable using Edwards to run the game out instead of Ingram to ensure the latter is healthier for the AFC Championship Game. Otherwise, Carlos Hyde ($5,000) could be a consideration against a Chiefs defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season, though that included giving up 100 catches for 951 yards and five touchdowns, the fourth-most, second-most and fifth-most in the league, respectively this season. That type of production doesn't point to Hyde but actually Duke Johnson ($4,700), but his upside isn't even all that great for GPPs. If anything, they're just another split backfield like Seattle's with Travis Homer ($5,100) and Marshawn Lynch ($4,800) where it's probably just best to leave them alone.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Davante Adams, GB vs. SEA ($7,800): Adams is the most expensive wide receiver on the slate, priced just above Tyreek Hill ($7,600) and DeAndre Hopkins ($7,400). As someone who mostly focuses on cash games, Adams sticks out to me because of his 42 targets in the past three games, a span that saw him reach 100 yards twice and score two touchdowns. Hopkins is obviously the top option for the Texans, who could be throwing a lot because they are expected to be trailing, so I wouldn't necessarily hesitate even though the Chiefs allowed the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Hopkins is basically matchup-proof but it's tough to argue he's safer than Adams. Meanwhile, Hill makes plenty of sense in a stack with Mahomes, though as a one-off I'm struggling to see why he's be a play over Adams or Hopkins.

Deebo Samuel, SF vs. MIN ($5,200): Figuring out the 49ers' backfield is just as difficult as figuring out their wide receivers, with Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders ($5,400) both capable of putting up excellent performances. Facing a Vikings defense that allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers than any other team on the slate, Samuel gets a slight nod because of his usage in the running game, as he comes in with multiple rushing attempts in three of his last four games, including rushing touchdowns in each of his last two. Neither player gets a high volume of targets, but their cheaper prices help alleviate that issue to a degree.

Allen Lazard, GB vs. SEA ($4,500): There are some pretty clear roster builds that don't include paying up at wide receiver at all, which means fantasy players could move their focus from Adams to Lazard, who has targeted 17 times in the past two games. It's no secret that Rodgers is much more comfortable throwing to Adams, but Lazard has done enough recently to get consideration on this slate, and his price makes him a bit safer than trying to figure out which of Sammy Watkins ($4,300), Mecole Hardman ($4,100) or Demarcus Robinson ($4,000) could break out for the Chiefs. Then again, Marquise Brown ($4,400) really jumps out to me as a great GPP play given his really low price for being one of Jackson's top pass catchers. Otherwise, you could punt with someone like David Moore ($3,900) and hope the Seahawks fall behind early and decide they need to pass their way back into the game.

TIGHT ENDS

George Kittle, SF vs. MIN ($6,200): While the 49ers' running backs and wide receivers can be tough to figure out, there's no question that Kittle is their best receiving weapon, finishing fourth among tight ends in receptions and targets while slotting in third in receiving yards with 1,053, his second consecutive season over 1,000. With at least eight targets in four straight games, you could make the argument that Kittle is a better pass-catching option than anyone but the top three wide receivers on the slate, with maybe the only argument coming from the Chiefs' Travis Kelce ($6,400), who lead all tight ends in targets (136), receptions (97) and receiving yards (1,229) this season. In fact, there's a very reasonable case for playing both Kittle and Kelce together in GPPs, as the cheaper tight ends don't offer nearly as much long-touchdown upside as the cheap wide receivers you'd have to play to fit them in. Then again, with so much focus on Kittle and Kelce, Mark Andrews ($5,600) could be a key differential in tournaments after leading all tight ends with 10 receiving touchdowns this year.

Jacob Hollister, SEA at GB ($4,000): Hollister is the most expensive cheaper tight end on the slate, but he at least offers some potential versus guys like Jonnu Smith ($3,400), Kyle Rudolph ($3,400) or Jimmy Graham ($3,300). We could get another Darren Fells ($3,500) opportunity if Jordan Akins ($3,000) is ruled out, though Hollister is definitely a better pass catcher. If anything, this just highlights the huge gap between the upper-tier tight ends on the slate and everyone else, so if you decide to fade Kittle, Kelce and Andrews then you better get a wide receiver who can make up their production.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Chiefs vs. HOU ($3,000): The Chiefs' defense comes in with double-digit fantasy points in five of their last six games and now faces Watson, who was sacked more than all but five quarterbacks during the regular season. Kansas City hasn't been forcing a ton of turnovers lately, but Watson has been a bit sloppy lately, throwing two interceptions in two of his last four games while fumbling three times over that span (all were recovered by Houston). If the price is a bit too high, Seattle ($2,600) offers an interesting alternative if only because that game is expected to be closer than the other three.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Andrew M. Laird plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: kingmorland, DraftKings: andrewmlaird, Yahoo: Lairdinho.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is an eight-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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