This article is part of our Monday Night DFS Breakdown series.The Monday Night matchup for Week 13 features two teams jockeying to stay in the race in the NFC East, with the Redskins going on the road to Philadelphia to face the Eagles. This is their first meeting of the 2018 season, however, as their second meeting is on tap for Week 17 in Washington.
The Eagles are favored by six, and the over/under total is 44.5.
The Implied Score is Eagles 25, Redskins 19 (dropping a half point).
The Redskins have averaged 5.2 yards per play this season (T-26th in the NFL) – only three teams have averaged less (Jets, Bills, Cardinals). Defensively, the Redskins are allowing 5.8 yards per play (tied for 13th-worst in the NFL).
The Eagles have averaged 5.5 yards per play this season (T-19th in the NFL). Defensively, the Eagles are allowing 6.1 yards per play this season (only five teams have been worse).
Here's a look at each team's fantasy points allowed per game, by position this season (Editor's Note: DraftKings scoring was used for the table).
|Redskins||21.0 (22nd)||23.8 (13th)||41.1 (27th)||9.7 (8th)|
|Eagles||21.5 (26th)||25.4 (18th)||44.6 (31st)||8.6 (4th)|
More players than usual are in danger of being scratched Monday, so be sure to check the inactives list 90 minutes before kickoff for the final word.
Trey Quinn (ankle) was spotted in a walking boot Sunday after the team flew to Philadelphia, and he missed Saturday's practice after getting limited work in Thursday and Friday. He appears to be a true game-time decision.
Jordan Reed (back) is questionable, but he was able to log a limited practice in all three sessions during the week.
Adrian Peterson (shoulder) is expected to play despite being listed as questionable.
Jamison Crowder (ankle) has missed seven straight games, putting his status in question despite limited practice participation all week.
Eagles running back Josh Adams (hip) is expected to play after returning to limited practice Saturday.
Captains, MVPs & High-Priced Fades
Most of my interest, especially in cash-game lineups, will feature one of the top Eagles' offensive contributors in the Captain/MVP role.
I've been impressed by Washington's run defense on a few occasions this season, which makes me more inclined to concentrate on the passing game, at least with the multiplier spot in cash games. In tournament builds, Josh Adams looks like a contrarian play in the Captain/MVP role at his price.
Will the slate-high price on DraftKings ($16,800 DKC) slightly depress ownership of Zach Ertz in this matchup? He's the second-most expensive player on FanDuel ($14,500) behind Carson Wentz ($16,000), and it's easy to imagine that duo being the most utilized pairing Monday. With double-digit targets in seven of 11 games this season, Ertz has frequently had the largest target share in the Philadelphia offense. Since Wentz's return from a torn ACL in Week 3, Ertz has seen 34 percent of the Eagles' targets inside the red zone. Much like the Eagles' defense, Washington has done a good job of slowing down tight ends this season, while leaking a lot of points to wide receivers. As an elite player at the position, I'm not sure that trend will put a dent in Ertz's ownership Monday.
Wentz has completed at least 70% of his passes in three of the last four games, with the fourth game being the nightmare in New Orleans in Week 11. Prior to the team's meltdown against the Saints, Wentz had posted back-to-back games with at least 25 DraftKings points. Despite his efficiency last week against the Giants, he disappointed with a 13.24 mark, as he only threw one TD pass despite finishing 20-for-28 for 236 yards. I'm expecting Wentz to be the most heavily-used player overall, and the most heavily-used in the Captain/MVP spot. Going this route in tournaments will likely require finding the right mix of underpriced, low-volume pieces at the bottom of your lineup who return significant value.
Alshon Jeffery ($12,900 DKC | $10,000 FD) should be used less than both Wentz and Ertz, and possibly less than Colt McCoy as the Captain on DraftKings, as he's been in a four-game lull despite Wentz's aforementioned efficiency in three of those four contests. The Redskins' secondary is allowing 9.5 yards per target to opposing wide receivers this season, making this a matchup to strongly consider, along with Golden Tate ($10,800 DKC | $9,500 FD). Tate has had a larger target share than Jeffery in each of the last two games, which could make him a more popular choice than Jeffery in lineup situations where only one will fit under the salary cap.
Josh Adams ($12,000 DKC | $13,500 FD) is intriguing, because he's had a Jay Ajayi share of the workload the last two weeks, taking over as the team's lead runner. Plus, the Eagles are six-point favorites, which should generate a run-heavy game script. Adams was targeted six times in the debacle against the Saints, but he was only targeted once against the Giants in Week 12, so it remains to be seen how much the Eagles want him to be involved in that facet of the game, especially if Darren Sproles is back in the mix Monday. In a vacuum, I prefer Adams outside of the MVP position on DraftKings, where his $8,000 price tag allows more flexibility elsewhere, but I'm legitimately wondering if that's a common feeling, which makes him a somewhat unusual option in tournaments for the 1.5x multiplier.
On the Washington side...
Colt McCoy ($13,200 DKC | $14,000 FD) – McCoy is not a bad backup quarterback. His current supporting cast is suboptimal, however, which seems to limit his upside even against a Philadelphia secondary that has been ravaged by injuries. In his Week 12 start, McCoy went 24-for-38 for 268 yards and two touchdowns with three interceptions against Dallas on Thanksgiving. This matchup is easier on paper. The targets in that game were heavily concentrated on tight end Jordan Reed (21%) and No. 1 receiver Josh Doctson (26%), while slot receiver Trey Quinn (16%) saw an uptick in usage as well. There will likely be more interested in making Eagles QB Carson Wentz a Captain/MVP, and it's possible that a few of the Eagles' pass-catchers (Zach Ertz and Alshon Jeffery) will be used as frequently in that spot as McCoy.
Jordan Reed ($12,300 DKC | $11,500 FD) – Reed has gobbled up a target share of 30 percent or more in three of his 11 games this season, and he was above 20 percent against Dallas last week. His role has been more consistent than that of top wideout Josh Doctson, which seemingly gives him a better floor provided that the back injury that put him on the injury report this week is a non-issue. As the Eagles' defense goes, tight ends have been held in check thus far (fourth-fewest fantasy points allowed) while receivers have feasted on the outside. That trend, paired with a nice price-break on Doctson, might help to bring down Reed's ownership rate somewhat, though he's only $8,200 on DraftKings when used outside the Captain spot.
Adrian Peterson ($11,100 DKC | $12,500 FD) – Peterson is averaging 4.1 yards per carry this season, and frankly, I am surprised because he looked done with New Orleans and Arizona last season. With 16 receptions in 11 games, he becomes much less of a factor if Washington is faced with a lot of obvious passing situations while playing catch-up. He's had an overwhelming share of the red-zone opportunities this season, however, with 34% of the carries and targets in those situations. The potential return of Chris Thompson doesn't impact Peterson much, but it might answer some of the questions about the team's preferences behind AP in red-zone situations as Thompson had 17% of the red-zone opportunities in the team's first three games before getting hurt. Relatively speaking, Peterson is underpriced compared to Alshon Jeffery on DraftKings, as both players have averaged 14.1 DraftKings points per game this season, and Peterson is available at a $1,200 discount outside of the MVP role ($7,400).
Josh Doctson ($10,2000 DKC | $10,000 FD) – Doctson's role has progressively increased over the last four weeks, maxing out with a 26% target share against Dallas last week, and averaging an 18% share during that span (tied for second on the team with Maurice Harris). The Eagles' struggles in coverage are well documented, and Doctson, who runs approximately 75% of his routes on the outside compared to 25% from the slot, should see plenty of Rasul Douglas and Sidney Jones, who have allowed passer ratings against of 85.6 and 92.6, respectively, this season. Things break down quickly for the Eagles when they're forced to use their current third and fourth corners, as Cre'von LeBlanc and De'Vante Bausby have been pushed into increased roles in recent weeks after beginning the season on the team's practice squad.
My initial lean for each site is as follows...
Cash MVP (FD): Wentz
Cash Captain (DK): Wentz
GPP MVP (FD): Jeffery
GPP Captain (DK): Tate
GPP Fade (FD): Ertz
GPP Fade (DK): Ertz
Here are most interesting mid-range considerations on the slate Monday...
Chris Thompson ($4,400 DK | $8,500 FD) – If Thompson gets the green light to play when the inactives are released 90 minutes before game time, he might be very chalky at this price on DraftKings. An all-in approach might be to use him as the Captain, grab both quarterbacks, and mix/match the pass-catchers of your choice with an Ertz and RB1 fade. Thompson averaged 13.2 DraftKings points per game before going on the shelf earlier this season. The risk here is that he suffers a setback with his rib injury, or that the team opts to bring him along slowly in his first game action since Week 8.
Eagles D/ST ($4,000 DK | N/A FD) – The Eagles are a home favorite facing a backup quarterback with below average weapons at his disposal. McCoy threw three picks last week against Dallas, and the Philadelphia pass rush should be able to get some pressure, which offers a path to 10 fantasy points even without a defensive or special teams touchdown. The Eagles have two 10-point games this season, and have yet to exceed that total in any game thus far.
Maurice Harris ($2,800 DK | $6,500 FD) – Harris has played at least 50 percent of the Redskins' snaps every week since Week 5, and he appears to be the biggest beneficiary if Trey Quinn is ruled out with his ankle injury, as Harris would likely become the primary option out of the slot. Even if Quinn plays, Harris could see 4-5 targets, and while his 6.8 YPT mark this season is nothing to write home about, low-priced options who end up getting targets in the right situations can be difference makers in this format.
Vernon Davis ($2,400 DK | $7,000 FD) – He's less likely to fly under the radar after taking a 53-yard TD to the house on Thanksgiving, but Davis should get a handful of targets again thanks to the rash of injuries depleting the receiver depth in Washington. It's somewhat surprising that he has only been targeted once in the red zone this season, but as he showed last week, Davis still has enough speed to make big plays.
Darren Sproles ($2,000 DK | $6,500 FD) – Keep an eye on the inactives list Monday night to ensure that he is definitely going to return before putting him into your lineup(s). The low price, lengthy absence, and the Eagles' running-back rotation makes this a GPP-only play, but Sproles' big-play ability opens the door for a huge ROI even without a large volume of touches. In his lone game this season, Sproles had five carries and four catches (seven targets) in Week 1 against Atlanta. He's dangerous if Doug Pederson gives him similar volume again at this price in his first game back.
Dallas Goedert ($1,000 DK | $7,000 FD) – The direct Ertz fade maneuver doesn't necessarily have to be the Eagles' No. 2 tight end, but Goedert is a very cheap option if you're not looking to load up Jeffery and Tate in the same lineup as part of an Ertz-fade, Philly passing game stack. His role has been volatile from week to week, but Goedert has found the end zone three times this season, and he's seen a double-digit target share in three games this season – all games in which Ertz played. Keep in mind, however, that he has not seen a target in the red zone since Week 7.