This article is part of our LoL Previews series.
It's that time of year again; NA LCS Summer Finals are right around the corner. With TSM already qualified for Worlds, this weekend's results will tell us where they'll be seeded and one of the teams that will be joining them to represent North America. They'll also set the stage for the gauntlet to decide who gets to clinch the third and last seed going into Worlds. Without further ado, let's dive into the analysis.
Immortals vs Counter Logic Gaming
Summary:
Immortals' failure to claim victory against Cloud9 in the semifinals has turned last split's playoff fluke into a very troublesome pattern for the team. In both of IMT's playoff runs now, they have come into the semis with a much better record than their opposition, only to flounder and get sent straight to the third-place match. While this split's defeat wasn't nearly as brutal as Spring's 0-3 loss to TSM, it did come about in largely the same way: off the back of questionable drafts and uncharacteristically poor play from Heo "Huni" Seung-hoon. While the top laner's performance wasn't exclusively bad -- his Rumble play was arguably the most vital factor in his team's Game 1 victory -- his apparent refusal to play anything but a carry-style champion would contribute hugely to IMT's eventual downfall, just as it did against TSM in the Spring Playoffs. Nothing captures this fact better than his Game 2 Riven pick, which would fall from a 3/1/3 KDA to 3/5/3 KDA as it became entirely ineffective in the later stages of the game despite an early lead. Huni played five unique champions in this series, several of which were varying degrees of off-meta and none of which were the frontline tanks his team often needed. If Immortals are to take the third-place match again, they will need to relearn their lesson from Spring, and adapt to the metagame regardless of how they feel about it. Unfortunately, with the championship point standings as they are, Immortals will only be playing for the chance to slide past Cloud9 in terms of points and take a higher seed in the Worlds gauntlet.
While Counter Logic Gaming were indeed swept by TSM in the semifinals, all is certainly not lost for this squad. CLG's early games weren't bad by any stretch of the imagination; in fact, it was often CLG who were making the strong early and mid-game plays, including a 2-vs-2 victory for CLG's bottom lane in Game 1 to kill Doublelift. Unfortunately, TSM were usually able to stay ahead despite this, owing to the strength of their individual players. Still, this is a better performance than might have been expected from the former lane-swap kings of NA after the most recent patch forced them into standard lanes. Ultimately, however, this third-place match means little to CLG in terms of Worlds standings. If TSM take the win over Cloud9 Sunday, CLG will qualify for Worlds as the second North American seed based on championship points regardless of their match's outcome. Similarly, if TSM lose, CLG will be seeded into the final round of the gauntlet whether they win or lose on Saturday. Still, heading into Worlds and/or the gauntlet, CLG will definitely want the confidence that would come with taking out Immortals; no one wants to head into Worlds as a loser.
Key Matchup: Reignover vs Xmithie
Despite Huni's mixed play throughout the season, and especially against C9 in the playoffs, Immortals have been able to remain a dominant team in NA. This is largely due to Kim "Reignover" Yeu-jin's consistently powerful performances, as he has often been able to lift up Huni during his struggles and allow the two of them to carry the team to victory. Meanwhile, Jake "Xmithie" Puchero has been performing very consistently this split, despite struggles in the past. He has controlled the jungle well for CLG, and has a strong habit of showing up in the right place at the right time to help his team. The jungle matchup always has the potential to turn the tides of a series, and this is especially true in this matchup.
The Verdict: 3-1 Immortals
While CLG had fairly strong early games against TSM, and IMT looked shaky against Cloud9, Immortals still have to be the favorites coming into this series. Even with Immortals' subpar play, they still managed to take Cloud9 to five games, and history tells us that they are indeed capable of learning from their mistakes, if perhaps only temporarily. Still, CLG's capability to keep up in the early game and make strong plays in the mid game should at least grant them a fighting chance against IMT, and likely prevent this series from ending in another sweep.
Team SoloMid vs Cloud9
Summary:
TSM looked every bit as strong as they were expected to, coming into their match against CLG. While their play wasn't perfect -- they were outplayed occasionally in individual matchups and lost a teamfight or two -- they never took a hit large enough to matter, and played with incredible restraint and control. TSM never looked flustered, even after losing out on a play. In fact, TSM were almost always ahead in gold in the early game, regardless of sometimes being down in kills and/or objectives. Their dragon control was also nearly flawless, taking 12 to CLG's one in the three-game series. TSM managed to find steady leads in every game regardless of the situation, and once they got rolling there was simply no stopping them. TSM have won all but a single game this split when they've held a lead at 15 minutes, and they are incredibly proficient at getting that lead. If Cloud9 give TSM a finger, expect TSM to take an arm, and then the series.
Cloud9 were not necessarily the favorites coming into their match against Immortals, given their significantly worse regular-season record and their inability to take down Immortals at any time in the past. However, given the huge patch that came out in between the regular season and playoffs, there was plenty of room for an upset, especially against a team like IMT, who have had serious trouble adapting to playoff patches in the past. Indeed, IMT, and Huni in particular, faltered in their series, and Cloud9 pressed hard on that advantage. Cloud9 had great teamwork against Immortals, and played some brilliant teamfights to eventually take the win. Still, it took them five games to take down the floundering Immortals, and it's safe to say that TSM will prove a greater challenge coming off of their sweep of CLG.
Key Matchup: Bjergsen vs Jensen
When Cloud9 originally imported Nikolaj "Jensen" Jensen from Europe in Season 5, everyone was predicting him to be the "answer to Bjergsen." While that wasn't initially the case, due to Jensen's struggles upon joining the team, he has since grown into a player with the potential to be just that. Jensen had the most kills of any NA mid laner this split, and currently holds the same record in the playoffs. In addition, he beat out Søren "Bjergsen" Bjerg in gold per minute and CS per minute in the regular season, all while being on a less successful team. While Bjergsen's superior KDA and huge success in leading his team, along with his historical strength, still grant him the North American mid lane throne, if anyone has a chance at beating him out in a series, it's Jensen. Cloud9 will need him to do just that if they want a shot at taking down TSM.
The Verdict: 3-0 Team SoloMid
While Cloud9 did manage to take down second-seed Immortals in the semis, they did so just barely, and against a squad that wasn't living up to the expectations they'd set for themselves in the regular split. TSM have looked better than IMT even when both teams were performing well, and TSM are anything but floundering in the playoffs so far, having yet to lose a single game. The patch change should only continue to assist TSM, forcing Cloud9 to go up against their powerful laners in the early game. Cloud9 will likely find themselves outmatched -- if sometimes marginally -- at every single position, and while it's certainly possible for them to find a win somewhere in the series, it's somewhat doubtful.
