NCAA Basketball Futures: Selection Sunday Over/Unders Update

NCAA Basketball Futures: Selection Sunday Over/Unders Update

Two weeks ago, DraftKings opened a market to bet on over/unders for NCAA tournament seeds on a select few schools. As the resident bracketologist, I immediately wrote an article with recommendations on every possible over/under. 

For the most part, those recommendations hit. I got one or two things wrong like Purdue and USC, but for the most part, the article should be full of winners (we'll find out in a few days). While a lot of the value has disappeared over the last two weeks, there are still some things to scoop up before Selection Sunday. The unfortunate part is that DraftKings doesn't want to move off certain numbers, so you have things like Iowa under 2.5 at -420 and Purdue under 4.5 at -335.

While my main barometer is the RotoWire Bracketology, I also use BracketMatrix as a comparison, which is more than a hundred bracket projections combined.

Florida State under 4.5 +100. BracketMatrix 5. I'm kind of going against the grain because the Seminoles are a 5-seed in the Matrix, but I think if they get further than Virginia in the ACC tournament, they'll drop to a 4-seed. There's also the chance of Villanova losing early in the Big East tournament and dropping to a 5-seed because of injuries, while there's a mix of Big 12 teams in this range and all of them can't win. This one is more based off what I think of FSU as a team. Two weeks ago I took them over 2.5 at plus odds and this time it's under 4.5 at plus odds.

Arkansas under 3.5 -139. BracketMatrix 3. The Razorbacks kind of came out of nowhere and appear headed for a 3-seed unless they screw things up in the SEC tournament. I expect them to make the title game, so I'm not too worried about this. However, a loss to Missouri or LSU could drop them a seed if someone else makes a run.

Wisconsin over 6.5 -143. BracketMatrix 7. The only path for Wisconsin to get a 6-seed is if it makes the Big Ten title game or teams like Tennessee, Colorado or Clemson take bad losses. When looking from the outside and comparing Quadrants, Wisconsin isn't much different than Michigan State, a bubble team. While nine of their 11 losses came in the upper tier of Q1, the Badgers didn't beat any of the elite Big Ten teams with their best wins coming against Maryland, Rutgers and Michigan State. With a road of Iowa and Illinois likely in the Big Ten tournament, I don't think they can jump to a 6-seed.

USC under 5.5 -118. BracketMatrix 5. If you like USC, it may be better to bet them in a likely matchup with Colorado in the Pac-12 tournament, but even with a loss there, a 5-seed is in play for the Trojans. Unlike the Buffs, they have no Q3 losses, and that may be enough to overcome a regular-season sweep. The main problem is that if USC loses to Colorado three times (including in the Pac-12 tournament), it'll be hard for them to get a 5-seed and Colorado a 6-seed.

Kansas under 3.5. -152. BracketMatrix 3. Unfortunately, I waited too long to write this article because between Tuesday and Wednesday, the Kansas over/under dropped a full seed. You could get under 4.5 at -163 on Tuesday and then it dropped to 3.5 with similar odds. While I still think this is a winner, the absence of David McCormack in the Big 12 tournament (and possibly longer) puts a damper on things and I don't feel as comfortable taking them as a 3-seed.

I kind of want to take Missouri under 7.5 at +115, but it's probably a better idea to take them to win straight up against Arkansas in the SEC tournament if it comes to it. The Tigers have some great wins, but their metrics are also poor, coming in with a NET of 43. Then again, Penn State is 40, so what does any of it mean?

For a live-updated bracket throughout the week check out our RotoWire Bracketology page.

RotoWire Community
Join Our Subscriber-Only College Basketball Chat
Chat with our writers and other RotoWire College Basketball fans for all the pre-game info and in-game banter.
Join The Discussion
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam, a 2019, 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's assistant soccer editor. He also runs RotoWire's Bracketology, as well as writes on other various college basketball content. He has previously worked at ESPN and Sporting Kansas City, and he is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate.
NCAA Championship Preview: Gonzaga vs. Baylor
NCAA Championship Preview: Gonzaga vs. Baylor
NCAA Tournament: Final Four Betting Analysis
NCAA Tournament: Final Four Betting Analysis
DFS College Basketball: Final Four Preview
DFS College Basketball: Final Four Preview
Final Four Preview: Gonzaga vs. UCLA
Final Four Preview: Gonzaga vs. UCLA
Final Four Preview: Baylor vs. Houston
Final Four Preview: Baylor vs. Houston
DFS College Basketball: Tuesday Elite Eight Preview
DFS College Basketball: Tuesday Elite Eight Preview