So every time I sit down to do this, I have two competing voices. One says, "wouldn't it be great to say you made a 50|PERCENT| ROI in your first season?" The other: "Just ensure that you have a nice positive ROI for the year." The former is how I ended up with four units on the Rangers over last week; the latter is how I can go days between picks.

My nature is to press an advantage, but I really want to have the positive year. I'll split the difference today.

I play for money. My kids eat.

Baltimore +320, .5 units. GP. Plus, Jake Arrieta.

Atlanta/Pittsburgh over 7.5 (-115), two units. Tim Hudson is meandering back to earth, taking scores with him. I have a slight lean to the Pirates as well, but the over is safer given their bullpen.

Kansas City +250, one unit. GP. Also, I may start fading Liriano and his unholy HR/FB a bit here.

St. Louis, +112, two units. This thing where the Cardinals are an underdog a lot could be fun over the next few weeks.

San Francisco -130, two units. Time for the Barry Enright Express to reach Reality Junction.