This article is part of our NBA DFS Breakdown series.
Raptors (2-1) at Warriors
The Raptors have no injuries to report
Series Price: TOR -124, GSW +106
Spread: GSW -4.5, opened GS -5.5
Money Line: GSW -185, opened GS -240
Over/Under: 215.0, opened 216.0
Performance Against the Spread
|Last 10 Games||6-4||4-5-1|
Performance Against the Money Line
|Last 10 Games||7-3||7-3|
Performance Against the Over/Under
|Average +/- vs. O/U||-0.21||+1.31|
Stats Through Three Games
In the wake of the Raptors going up 2-1 and the news that Durant will be out Friday, Toronto has emerged as the betting favorites to win the NBA Finals. That's also represented in the tightening spread and money line for Game 4.
Having Klay Thompson back, even at less than 100 percent, is crucial for the Warriors. Without him during Game 3, Raptors players felt little resistance. The team as a whole shot 50/40/90, which is an amazing mark in an NBA Finals matchup. Kevon Looney's possible return could help provide rim protection as well.
Neither squad has an answer for their opponent's superstar. Kawhi Leonard has scored 87 points on 51 shots, while Stephen Curry has racked up 104 points on 66 shots. The difference has been Toronto's depth. The Raptors have six players averaging double-digits points, while the Warriors have only three.
For DFS purposes, there should be concern that Curry's price is too steep. If Thompson is relatively healthy, he could put in around 20 points, which would severely diminish Curry's usage relative to Game 3. However, regardless of Thompson's health, Green's usage should stay similar considering his all-around role on both sides of the ball. For the Warriors, he's my pick for safest bet. The risky bet is, without a doubt, Thompson.
On the other side of the ball, Leonard is the safest bet and needs to be a lineup staple in cash games. It's tougher to pick who the riskiest bet is considering the amount of competent depth on Toronto. But with Thompson back, I think Kyle Lowry could struggle. Thompson has been the primary defender on Lowry, averaging 19.0 defensive possessions per game. When checked by Thompson, Lowry has eight points on six shots and three assists to two turnovers. That's acceptable, but it shouldn't surprise anyone if Thompson eventually got the better of the matchup.