Luis Severino
Luis Severino
27-Year-Old PitcherSP
New York Yankees
60-Day IL
Injury Elbow
Est. Return 7/15/2021
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Dreams of a Gerrit Cole-Severino 1-2 punch atop the Yankees' rotation were shattered last February when Severino was diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery. It was a brutal blow for the young right-hander, who made only three regular-season appearances in 2019 due to lat and shoulder issues. Prior to the run of injuries, Severino was emerging as one of the game's most promising hurlers, winning 33 games and registering a 3.18 ERA between 2017 and 2018. Plenty of pitchers have gone on to find success after TJ surgery, so there's no reason to rule out a return to form for Severino, though there's bound to be some rust -- and a strict innings limit -- upon his eventual return. Severino isn't expected to be ready to rejoin the rotation until well after the start of the regular season, further capping his 2021 value. He may not be a viable option in fantasy leagues until 2022. Read Past Outlooks
RANKS
#419
ADP
$Signed a four-year, $40 million contract with the Yankees in February of 2019. Contract includes $15 million team option ($2.75 million buyout) for 2023.
Mound work coming soon
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
February 27, 2021
Severino (elbow) is expected to throw off a mound within the next two weeks, Brendan Kuty of The Newark Star-Ledger reports.
ANALYSIS
Severino is past the midpoint of his recovery from Tommy John surgery, a procedure he underwent back in February of last year, but he still has plenty of work to do. He won't throw off a mound next week but is expected to do so during the following week as he targets a return sometime over the summer.
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Pitching Stats
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2020
2019
2018
2017
2020 MLB Game Log
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2019 MLB Game Log
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2018 MLB Game Log
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2017 MLB Game Log
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Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-8%
BAA vs RHP
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-3%
BAA vs RHP
2018
 
 
-10%
BAA vs RHP
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2018vs Left .244 383 114 31 85 20 2 6
Since 2018vs Right .224 445 123 21 94 20 1 13
2020vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019vs Left .148 32 12 4 4 1 0 0
2019vs Right .143 16 5 2 2 0 0 0
2018vs Left .252 351 102 27 81 19 2 6
2018vs Right .227 429 118 19 92 20 1 13
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Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2018
 
 
-38%
ERA at Home
2020
No Stats
2019
 
 
-100%
ERA at Home
2018
 
 
-31%
ERA at Home
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2018Home 2.50 1.02 101.0 11 2 0 11.0 2.1 0.7
Since 2018Away 4.05 1.25 102.1 9 7 0 10.0 2.5 1.0
2020Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2020Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2019Home 0.00 0.78 9.0 1 0 0 13.0 2.0 0.0
2019Away 6.00 1.67 3.0 0 1 0 12.0 12.0 0.0
2018Home 2.74 1.04 92.0 10 2 0 10.8 2.2 0.8
2018Away 3.99 1.24 99.1 9 6 0 10.0 2.2 1.0
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Recent RotoWire Articles Featuring Luis Severino
Spring Training Job Battles: Let the Competition Begin
4 days ago
Erik Halterman analyzes the top job battles on every major league team, including a look at the Mets' closer situation. Will Edwin Diaz regain the job this season?
The Z Files: Changing Wins to Innings and Saves to Solds
4 days ago
Todd Zola examines the impact of new scoring categories on the pitching side, including the rise in value of top set-up men like Tyler Duffey.
Rounding Third: Mixed LABR Draft Review
13 days ago
Gerrit Cole was Jeff Erickson's first-round pick in Tuesday night's LABR draft. See who else he selected and the rest of the draft results.
Rounding Third: Blank Ballots
56 days ago
Jeff Erickson reacts to a Hall of Fame ballot submitted for the 2021 slate, and declares his interest in drafting Edwin Rios this season.
Rounding Third: Is Corbin Burnes Getting Drafted Too Soon?
63 days ago
Is Corbin Burnes getting drafted too soon in early NFBC drafts? Jeff Erickson takes a look at the Brewers' hurler and the risks associated with his current ADP.
Past Fantasy Outlooks
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
Simply put, Severino is one of the best pitchers in MLB. The question heading into 2020 is, are the lat and shoulder issues that cost him all but three regular-season starts behind him? Initially diagnosed with a sore rotator cuff early in spring training, Severino was later revealed to have also suffered a Grade 2 lat strain which is what was responsible for the lengthy absence. When Severino returned, his velocity was just a tick below normal, offering some optimism for a full recovery. Severino is unfairly penalized for his home venue. Yankee Stadium is plus for homers but suppresses runs. This helps explain his success in the Bronx where his career ERA and WHIP are a tad better than on the road. Most will want to wait until the spring before investing, creating a buying opportunity in early drafts. However, even if healthy, Severino's workload will likely be lower than other aces.
Severino had an amazing season considering he makes his home starts in Williamsport Northeast. Most of his metrics were a carbon copy of his 2017 breakout season. He allowed two or fewer earned runs in 19 starts and struck out eight or more hitters in 13 starts. All kidding aside about his home ballpark, Sevvy was a monster at home, notching a 2.74 ERA while holding the opposition to a .217/.270/.337 line over 92 innings. The road games were where he was more mortal, as he had a 3.99 ERA and allowed a .255/.303/.416 line over 99 innings away from Yankee Stadium. It looked as if he would cruise to a Cy Young Award at the break, going into it with a 2.31 ERA and 14 wins. Severino won five games in the second half with a 5.57 ERA. He wasn't that bad (3.37 FIP), but he was giving up significantly more line drives while generating fewer groundballs. On top of that, he injured his shoulder warming up for his first spring training game and is expected to start the season on the injured list.
A year later than expected, Severino proved that the flashes he showed as a rookie in the second half of 2015 were indicative of his upside. While Masahiro Tanaka scuffled in the first half, Severino thrived, mixing his arsenal of a high-90s fastball, slider and improved changeup effectively to become one of the best starters in the American League. He threw more pitches in the strike zone than ever before (49.3 percent), held hitters to a lower contact rate on those pitches (82.3 percent), and made hitters chase pitches outside the zone at the highest rate of his career (31.3 percent). Home runs are still his greatest weakness, and he allowed 15 in 97 innings at Yankee Stadium compared to six in 96.1 innings on the road, but as long as he keeps his walk rate (2.4 BB/9) in check, the long balls are unlikely to derail him. Severino will likely be treated as a top-10 starting pitcher in most draft rooms for 2018, but the increased price and hype appear to be warranted.
Severino had a breakout stint as a 21-year-old in 2015, working to a 2.89 ERA over 11 starts and looking poised to join the top of the rotation. Though there were signs that he might take a bit of a step back -- a 4.44 FIP, struggles with the long ball, and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.3 percent -- few could have predicted how disastrous the 2016 campaign would be. Through seven starts, he was 0-6 with a 7.46 ERA and had allowed eight home runs in just 35 innings, leading to a demotion to the minors to straighten things out. Severino joined the bullpen after coming back up to the majors, where he was terrific to the tune of a 0.39 ERA with 25 strikeouts in 23.1 innings. Despite his success in the bullpen, the Yankees will likely try again with the young righty as a starter in 2017, though he proved too unreliable last season for owners to confidently count on him out of the gate. As a low-risk gamble, however, he could pay off handsomely.
The Yankees bypassed the starting pitching trade market in July, instead declaring Severino the solution to their problems. They were right and Severino was dominant down the stretch. There are some issues to iron out, including the home runs, but he showed an impressive three-pitch mix that was effective against both righties and lefties. His fastball carries him which is often the case when a guy throws 95-96 mph on average. He gets both swings-and-misses and groundballs at a good clip with it, but his changeup is an above-average strikeout weapon and an elite groundball inducer (62%). The slider is the weakest of the three, but still showed flashes of success. With 162 combined innings in 2015, Severino should have few, if any, innings restrictions in 2016. He's set to join Masahiro Tanaka atop the Yankees' rotation and could be a star in the making.
No pitcher in the minor leagues enhanced their stock as much as Severino during the 2014 season. He climbed two full levels, posting a 127:27 K:BB ratio and a 2.46 ERA in 113.1 innings between three stops, thanks to a mid-90s heater and a slider and changeup that work well off said fastball. Severino, who finished the season as a 20-year-old at Double-A Trenton, has never failed at a level, but he has never been truly tested. In 24 starts last season, he gave up more than three earned runs on just one occasion. This is what makes his upcoming season so intriguing. Despite being just six feet tall, he weighs almost 200 pounds, so he should be able to handle a full season. He also happens to pitch in a system where advanced starting pitching will be pushed aggressively, as the Yankees' starting rotation is chock-full of injury concerns and below-average options. Assuming he was unowned going into last season, he should be a top-5 pick in dynasty drafts in 2015.
More Fantasy News
Placed on 60-day injured list
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
February 23, 2021
Severino (elbow) landed on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
ANALYSIS
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Expects to return in June or July
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
February 22, 2021
Severino (elbow) expects to pitch off a mound soon and anticipates a return to major-league action in June or July, Brendan Kuty of The Newark Star-Ledger reports.
ANALYSIS
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Nearing mound work
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
February 18, 2021
Severino (elbow) has played catch from 120 feet and should advance to mound work within the next few weeks, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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Tracking toward late summer return
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
January 29, 2021
Severino is on track to return from Tommy John surgery in late summer, Brendan Kuty of The Newark Star-Ledger reports.
ANALYSIS
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Rehab going well
PNew York Yankees
Elbow
October 14, 2020
Severino's (elbow) rehab is going well, and he could return to the majors in June or July, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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