This article is part of our Minor League Barometer series.
This is my annual reminder that prospecting is an inexact science. We can use all the statistical analysis in the world, watch hours of film and in a different world could even meet with players and watch them in person. Yet there's no way to ensure a prospect will be a success, or to what level a prospect will succeed. That's why Mike Trout was the 25th pick in the 2009 draft (he was the sixth outfielder taken). Why Derek Jeter was drafted sixth (none of the five players taken before him were Hall of Famers, to say the least, though Phil Nevin was certainly a very good player).
Yet, inclusion in the top 100 also doesn't necessarily mean these players will be big-league successes either. There's talent, then there's talent and development, and then there is luck and opportunity. There's some combination of many factors that usually results in stardom, in complete flameouts, and everything in between.
OK, I hear you. Thanks for telling us what we already knew, Jesse. Still, it's worth noting that pitchers are considered riskier than positional prospects. Why Brien Taylor was more likely to be a bust than Mickey Moniak. There's also injuries and organizational priorities and handling to take into account.
If your head isn't spinning by now, it