This article is part of our MLB Barometer series.
In my last article, I compared the dollar values from two projection systems (RotoWire and Derek Carty's 'The BAT') to January NFBC Average Draft Position data, in the hopes of unearthing hitters that both sets of projections saw as undervalued in the current market.
(You can read more about the process in that piece.)
Naturally, I wanted to use the same approach this week to find values on the pitching side.
I expected to find another treasure trove of value, write up 25-30 pitchers that you should strongly consider at their respective prices, and skate off to a new topic next week.
Unfortunately, there were only 14 pitchers who showed up as undervalued at their January ADP compared to their projections in both systems, and 12 of them are going outside the Top 350 overall.
I moved past my feelings of disappointment quickly, since I only spent an hour or so in total compiling all of the original data for these two articles, and there are scientists who spend their entire careers doing research only to come away with inconclusive results.
I think the explanation for the limited number of undervalued arms using the method is actually pretty straight forward. Pitchers get pushed up NFBC draft boards to a higher pick value than their actual projected dollar value, which leaves a lot of the undervalued hitters to be scooped up at a discount.
In some instances, the draft market (NFBC ADP) might be sharper with aging hitting than projections