Mound Musings: Endgame Odyssey Update

The following article, looking at bullpen constructs for the coming season, appeared in the 2018 Rotowire Fantasy Baseball magazine, which hit newsstands in January. As you might expect, with the season now upon us, several bullpens have become more settled, but there are still many that could offer significant fantasy value in the coming weeks. Therefore, updating those potential opportunities will be our focus for this edition of Mound Musings.

Baseball has long been a sport interwoven with tradition. There are actually quite a few ingrained tendencies in the game that date back to very near its beginning. While new faces arrive regularly, most seem to prefer maintaining the traditions while resisting – at least nominally – change. Yes, traditions do die hard in baseball, but they do eventually give way, grudgingly perhaps, as the sport evolves. Bullpens are currently at the forefront of that evolution.

Obviously, it's not just the bullpens going through changes. In the offseason, the Los Angeles Angels signed 23-year-old Japanese superstar, Shohei Ohtani, and the word is he could eventually become a two-way player – serving as a designated hitter a couple of times a week (he also has experience in the outfield) and taking his blazing fastball to the mound every sixth day. That's right, every six days, which will undoubtedly keep his innings well below 200 by season's end. You may have noticed, not many starting pitchers make 40-plus starts, or hurl more than 300 innings any longer. Those days are long gone, and trends suggest pitching more than 200 innings in a regular season could become rare, too. A quick quiz: Who led the Astros in innings pitched last season? Mike Fiers tossed 156 innings!

Baseball games still last nine innings – it's traditional – but if starting pitchers are making fewer starts and completing fewer innings, someone has to be toeing the rubber. You guessed it, those bullpens are picking up the workload. On the "new" side, we're seeing an evolving breed of relief pitcher, sometimes referred to as a "super reliever" and they're already making an impact. Andrew Miller is the prototype. These guys can enter a game at any time, usually when the game is on the line, and they sometimes pitch multiple innings. That's different. However, the traditional closer role remains a critical part of the game. Managers still desperately want the guy on whom they can depend on to finish off a win. It's just getting somewhat more difficult to identify that guy.

In this update we want to accomplish two things. We want to identify some bullpens that are most likely to see closer role changes as the season progresses (while also touching on candidates for holds), and we want to review attributes that could make specific pitchers the best candidates to benefit from those changes. Again, the goal is to get those value pickups on your roster before your opponents even see a change coming.

Let's start by taking a look at the factors I suggest you consider:

• Teams without a true closer – Some teams have a true closer, or pitchers they feel could fill that role. For example, the Yankees have Aroldis Chapman, and others who could fill in if he encounters health issues, while the Mets have guys like Jeurys Familia and A.J. Ramos. They said they may head into the season with a committee, but don't expect that to happen. Teams don't like committees. If they're in the hunt, and no one has stepped up to claim the job, they'll be shopping. Really, any team without a locked in end-gamer is a team you want to watch closely, especially the successful teams.

• Very high strikeout rate – Some of the most volatile closer scenarios will have someone pitching the ninth inning who lacks big strikeout numbers. Strikeouts can overcome a lot of problems, and that's rarely lost on managers. If the current closer struggles, you might want to assess other alternatives, and look for strikeouts as a predictive indicator.

• Past experience closing – Experience counts. Very competent set-up men may not be well-suited to closing either, because they require more workload management or the stress isn't something on which they thrive. If there's a closer opening, those who have done it before, even if they have been fantasy frustrations, often get the first shot at the gig.

• High upside but struggling young starting pitchers – If a team lacks any real alternatives but has a high-quality young starter who's been struggling, they might decide to try him in a closing role rather than returning him to the minors. Many times that kid just hasn't had time to fully develop a reliable third pitch, and late-inning work allows him to work on his repertoire on the side while primarily using his top one or two pitches in actual game action. It's a bit of a longshot, but be aware.
  

Angels – The team that added Ohtani (and then swung a deal for Ian Kinsler, which suggests a push to compete for a post-season appearance), interestingly, still has an unsettled bullpen. The two frontrunners appear to be Blake Parker and the perennially fragile Cam Bedrosian. The Angels would like to see Parker in more of a super reliever role, but that would limit their ability to manage Bedrosian's workload. I do think he will see some save chances early on, and a stretch of good health could lead to more. It could get even more interesting if Parker falters and/or Bedrosian gets hurt – both quite possible. Young flamethrower Keynan Middleton actually profiles more like a closer than either of the other two if he can start hitting his spots now and then. They also have newcomer Jim Johnson on hand, but he's much better suited to a set-up role.

Diamondbacks – Earlier this offseason, this bullpen didn't look like the anticipated roles would be too difficult to identify. Archie Bradley found his comfort zone in the pen in 2017, and he displayed closing potential late in the season. However, Bradley is a perfect candidate for that super reliever role. It looked like he could open the year with the closing gig, but they decided to go the other direction. Two names were in the hunt. Brad Boxberger has worn the "future closer" tag on and off for a few years, and he's going to get the first shot, but injuries are always a concern with him. I still think the guy to own (eventually) is Yoshihisa Hirano. He was very successful in Japan, so he's no newcomer to the stress of finishing games. They even have a couple of young closer-types in the minors (Silvino Bracho and Jimmie Sherfy), but I don't think this is the year you'll see either of them in the Arizona endgame.

White Sox – The South Siders are attempting to duplicate the Astros' blueprint for success – collecting a huge pool of talented young players. It's coming together, but they are probably a couple years away. Juan Minaya finished 2017 as their closer, but he's not the answer. Nate Jones is the answer (in their eyes), but his ongoing health issues make him a huge question mark. That said, they brought in an insurance policy. Not too many years ago, Joakim Soria was a top-shelf endgamer. He's certainly not in that category these days, but it looks like he'll share the job with Jones as Jones hopes to prove he can stay healthy. That's a lot to prove. If you own one, it's almost necessary to own both. Are there surprises in store? Michael Kopech is destined for the rotation, but might they allow him to learn pitching out of the pen if the need arises? And, here's a super sleeper. They also acquired Thyago Vieira during the offseason. Keep an eye on him.

Cardinals – With last year's closers, Seung Hwan Oh and Trevor Rosenthal out of the picture, the Redbirds have had to search for someone to close games. They brought in Luke Gregerson and indicated he might be the first choice, but he has always been better in a set-up role, and things became more complicated when he suffered a hamstring injury that's expected to keep him out of the mix early on. That leads us to look at alternatives, and I think there are better options available. Maybe Tyler Lyons? The southpaw has had a little closing experience, and he does fit, but better against same-handed hitters. They also brought in Dominic Leone who made a solid impact in Toronto last season, eventually working himself up to a primary set-up role. Again, he's better against hitters from the same side. If he can prove his ability to finish games, he has the best stuff of the key candidates. It's even possible they could use top prospect Alex Reyes in a late inning role when he returns (May). He's going to start, but the bullpen is a way to manage his workload while he builds himself up. I don't think closing is the best role for a rehabbing young arm. My money is on Leone.

Rangers – The Rangers are building a reputation for using pitchers who don't really profile as closers in that role. Remember Sam Dyson? Alex Claudio also fits here. He finished the season as the squad's end-gamer, and he might see time this year in that role, but I expect to see an evolution in Texas with Claudio slipping into a multiple innings role. Matt Bush has a big arm and did a nice job for a while before the wheels came off, so he might be better suited to lower leverage situations. I think (and I think the Rangers would agree) their best option is Keone Kela, but he's going to have to prove he can get and stay healthy with his chronic shoulder woes behind him. Lefty Jake Diekman could also get into some ninth inning action, but he has had his share of medical issues as well, and ideally he could serve as Kela's primary set-up guy. The big question may be where Tim Lincecum slots in? He's the wild card. I don't think it will pop up right away, but if Kela's health fails, and Lincecum shows he's back, it could happen. I bought shares in Kela when I could this spring, but I'm crossing my fingers.

Marlins – Brad Ziegler is one of those guys who keeps getting chances to close simply because he has done it before. He's a nice insurance policy. He could again see some saves in South Florida, but you want to be ready when a better alternative arises, and I think it will. Kyle Barraclough still profiles as a guy with the right stuff, but like so many others mentioned in this column, he has to get and stay healthy, and then show he can throw strikes. I have my doubts, and that leads me to another nice arm who has moved up the food chain quietly. I also took flyers on Drew Steckenrider in a few leagues, and he profiles as the best bet to end up in the closer's gig in my book. I like him a bit better each time I see him pitch, and even if Ziegler holds the job for a while, I don't see him in a Marlins uniform all season. If you're looking for a long shot, consider the recently acquired Sandy Alcantara. They likely want to develop him as an eventual starter, but he could probably close right now if needed.

A's – This one could take a little longer to sort out. The A's acquired Blake Treinen last year, and they appear to be committed to giving him a chance to lock down the job. That means he could have a pretty long leash, but I'm not convinced he's the guy long term. Emilio Pagan likely is first in line behind him, and Ryan Buchter and Liam Hendriks could squeeze into the picture, but I expect them to claim key set-up roles. The guy I'm watching is young flamethrower Frankie Montas. I actually expected him to claim the job last season but he struggled, and it never materialized. That's okay. I'm stubborn. I still think he's closer material, and I believe he'll show us that soon. They are still tinkering with him as a possible starter, but the bullpen beckons.

Now, we'll add in several other teams with the possibility of role changes. The Orioles will be playing the closer shuffle with Brad Brach (I think he gets the lion's share), Darren O'Day, and Mychal Givens potentially finishing games until Zach Britton makes it back, hopefully in early June. Can A.J. Minter wrestle away the closer's job from Arodys Vizcaino in Atlanta? I'd make it better than a 50/50 chance, so stash him. The Tigers probably hope to see their closer of the future, Joe Jimenez, take the next step, but I'm not sold on him just yet. I'm going to throw out a really deep sleeper as a threat to Shane Greene's gig. You didn't hear it from me, but Phillippe Aumont could close games one day. That's fully one third of the MLB teams with the potential to embark on an Endgame Odyssey. Stay tuned!

Next time I'll look at one of my fantasy pitching staffs for 2018.