Premier League Golden Boot Watch: The Field Tightens

Premier League Golden Boot Watch: The Field Tightens

This article is part of our Betting on Soccer series.

The Golden Boot odds list on DraftKings Sportsbook significantly tightened after Gameweek 17, as eight players fell out of the offerings: Che Adams, Neal Maupay, Christian Pulisic, Richarlison, Chris Wood, Hakim Ziyech, Michail Antonio and Mason Greenwood, all of whom were +15000 last week except for the latter two, who were +20000. It was particularly tough for Maupay, who scored from the penalty spot against Wolverhampton, his second goal in his last two starts. We have seen players removed and then return (Anthony Martial and Olivier Giroud are examples from this season), but they're still significant long-shots who shouldn't be bet on anyway.

Premier League goal leader Mohamed Salah did not find the back of the net, though he maintained his lead with 13 goals, with his odds to finish as the top scorer moving from +175 to +250. Part of that was his own failure to score, but the other was that Harry Kane, Son Heung-Min and Bruno Fernandes all got on the score-sheet, moving them from +450 to +350, +900 to +700 and +1400 to +1000, respectively. Kane's goal was his first after going without one in four straight matches, a span that saw Son score twice. Fernandes converted from the penalty spot to give him four goals in his last four starts, and he took 16 shots in that run, one more than Kane and 10 more than Son. 

Speaking of Son, his finishing has been incredible this season in terms of shot conversion rate, enough so that there has to be plenty of doubt that it continues. He is second in the league in goals while taking zero penalties or free-kick shots, and there are 25 players who have taken more shots and eight who have put more shots on target. 

Player

Team

GP

MIN

ST

G

S

SOG

PK

PKG

FKG

FKS

Mohamed Salah

LIV

16

1349

15

13

54

26

5

5

0

1

Son Heung-Min

TOT

16

1350

16

12

28

17

0

0

0

0

Dominic Calvert-Lewin

EVE

16

1407

16

11

45

24

0

0

0

0

Bruno Fernandes

MUN

16

1302

15

11

51

22

6

5

0

5

Jamie Vardy

LEI

16

1303

14

11

38

21

7

6

0

0

Patrick Bamford

LEE

17

1459

17

10

65

28

1

1

0

0

Harry Kane

TOT

16

1431

16

10

61

23

3

3

0

5

To compare him with another ridiculous outlier, Anwar El Ghazi has taken one fewer shot and put one fewer shot on target but has played only 481 minutes versus Son's 1,350.

I've written a few times this season about how good you must have felt if you bet on Dominic Calvert-Lewin at +6600 back in September after he made it as high as +500 last month (he was still behind Salah, Kane and Jamie Vardy at that point), but some people may have been sharp enough to look at Fernandes' +6600 odds in the first week of November and felt they were too high. Since then, Fernandes has six goals in nine games, plus three more in the Champions League (those don't count for Premier League Golden Boot bets), and he is now ahead of Calvert-Lewin (+1200) in odds while being level on goals (11).

Maupay has the most goals (six) of any player no longer being offered odds to finish as the league's stop scorer, with Tomas Soucek, Harvey Barnes and El Ghazi one behind him and also not on the list. It seems unlikely any will take a huge leap, though El Ghazi's current run of form is pretty incredible and could garner enough people to think about betting on him that they start offering odds. Even with that, he'll be a long-shot compared to the leaders anyway.

PlayerTeamGPFKG1/512/2812/2112/1412/711/3011/2311/1611/911/210/2610/1910/59/289/219/159/2
Mohamed SalahLIV1350 +250 +175 +200 +350 +450 +450 +450 +325 +350 +400 +400 +375 +350 +400 +400 +350+600
Harry KaneTOT1030 +350 +450 +500 +400 +450 +400 +450 +400 +400 +400 +450 +400 +700 +1000 +700 +700+500
Jamie VardyLEI1160 +450 +450 +450 +400 +450 +600 +600 +550 +550 +600 +700 +1100 +800 +500 +1200 +900+1400
Son Heung-MinTOT1200 +700 +900 +900 +1000 +900 +1000 +850 +1200 +1200 +800 +600 +800 +900 +2500 +2000+6600-
Bruno FernandesMUN1150 +1000 +1400 +1800 +2500 +2500 +2000 +2500 +3300 +3300 +6600+5000+4000+4000+4000 +3300+2500+1600
Dominic Calvert-LewinEVE1100 +1200 +900 +800 +600 +500 +600 +600 +1200 +1000 +700 +700 +600 +650 +1000 +1400+5000+6600
Patrick BamfordLEE1010 +2000 +1800 +3300 +3300 +3300 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500+10000+8000 +6600+10000+8000+10000
Danny IngsSOU720+4000+4000+4000 +3300 +3300+4000+4000 +3300 +3300 +2500 +2500 +1800+2000 +1400 +1600+2500+2000
Marcus RashfordMUN700+4000 +3300 +3300 +6600+5000+5000 +6600+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000+4000 +2500 +2500+2000+2000
Alexandre LacazetteARS710+5000+10000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+8000+8000 +6600 +6600+5000+4000 +3300 +3300+4000+4000
Raheem SterlingMCI400+5000+4000+4000+5000 +2500 +2800 +2800 +2500 +2500+2000 +1800 +1400 +1600 +1400 +1200 +1200+1100
Timo WernerCHE400+5000+4000 +3300 +2000 +1400 +1200 +1200 +1200 +1200 +1200 +1600 +1400+2000 +1600 +1200 +800+1000
Sadio ManeLIV600+5000 +2500 +3300+4000 +3300 +2500 +2500 +2500 +2500+2000 +1600 +1600 +1600 +1000 +1200 +1600+1400
Callum WilsonNEW840+5000+5000+4000+5000+5000+5000 +6600 +6600 +6600 +3300 +6600+5000+4000+5000+5000+4000-
Sergio AgueroMCI000 +6600 +6600 +6600 +6600 +6600+5000+5000+5000+5000+4000 +2500 +2500+4000 +3300 +3300 +1200+600
Ollie WatkinsAVL610 +6600 +6600+5000+4000 +3300 +2800 +2800 +2500 +2500+5000+5000+5000+4000+10000+8000+8000-
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangARS310+8000 +6600+5000+5000+4000 +3300 +2800 +2500 +2500 +1800 +1800 +1600 +900 +550 +500 +450+500
Tammy AbrahamCHE600+8000+4000+4000 +6600 +6600 +6600 +6600 +6600 +6600+8000+8000+8000 +6600+5000---
Roberto FirminoLIV500+10000 +6600+5000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000 +6600 +6600 +6600+5000+5000+4000+4000+3300
Gabriel JesusMCI200+10000+10000+8000+8000 +6600+4000+4000 +3300 +3300+4000 +3300 +3300 +3300 +2500 +1200+2000+1600
Diogo JotaWLV500+10000+10000+10000 +6600 +2500 +2000 +3300 +6600 +6600+8000+8000+10000+10000+10000+10000+15000+15000
Riyad MahrezMCI400+10000+10000+10000+10000 +6600+5000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+10000+8000+8000
Wilfried ZahaCRY820+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+15000+10000+10000+15000+15000
Kevin De BruyneMCI320+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000 +6600 +6600+5000+5000+5000
Olivier GiroudCHE300+15000+8000+10000+15000+10000-----+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+6600+6600
Edinson CavaniMUN300+15000+10000+10000+8000 +6600+4000+8000 +6600 +6600 +6600+5000+5000-----
Anthony MartialMUN200+20000+15000+15000-+20000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+8000 +6600+5000 +3300 +2500+2000+2000
Jack GrealishAVL500+25000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+15000 +6600 +6600+15000+15000+10000+10000
Che AdamsSOU400-+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+15000+15000+15000+15000+20000+20000
Neal MaupayBHA630-+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000 +6600+5000+5000+4000 +3300 +3300+10000+10000
Christian PulisicCHE100-+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+8000 +6600 +6600+5000+5000
RicharlisonEVE210-+15000+15000+20000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+8000 +6600 +6600+5000+8000+6600+6600
Chris WoodBUR300-+15000+15000+20000+20000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+8000+8000+8000
Hakim ZiyechCHE100-+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000+8000+8000+5000+5000
Michail AntonioWHU300-+20000+20000+20000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000 +6600+10000 +6600 +6600 +6600+8000+8000
Mason GreenwoodMUN100-+20000+20000+20000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000 +6600 +6600+5000+4000+3300+2500
Kai HavertzCHE100----+20000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000 +6600 +6600 +6600+5000+5000+5000-
Gareth BaleTOT100----+20000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000+10000--
Aleksandar MitrovicFUL210----+20000+15000+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000+8000 +6600 +6600 +6600--
James RodriguezEVE300-----+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000+8000 +6600+15000+15000+15000-
Rhian BrewsterLIV000-----+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000 +6600 +6600+6600-
Raul JimenezWLV400------+4000 +3300 +3300 +2500 +2500 +2500 +3300 +2500 +1600+2000+2500
Jarrod BowenWHU400-------+20000+20000+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+20000+20000+20000
Phil FodenMCI300----------+15000+15000+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000
Sebastien HallerWHU300----------+15000+15000+10000+10000+15000+10000+10000
Ashley BarnesBUR100----------+20000+20000+20000+20000+20000+15000+15000
Jordan AyewCRY100-----------+20000+20000+20000+20000+20000+20000
Edward NketiahARS100------------+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000
Donny van de BeekMUN100------------+15000+15000+15000+15000-
Lucas MouraTOT100------------+20000+15000+20000+20000-
Oliver McBurnieSHU100-------------+20000+20000+20000+20000
Moise KeanEVE000--------------+20000+15000+15000
Dele AlliTOT000--------------+20000+20000+20000
Paul PogbaMUN100--------------+20000+20000+20000
Jay RodriguezBUR000--------------+20000+20000+20000
Bernardo SilvaMCI000--------------+20000+20000+20000
David McGoldrickSHU400--------------+25000+25000+25000
Allan Saint-MaximinNEW100--------------+25000+25000+25000
Leandro TrossardBHA100--------------+25000+25000+25000
Miguel AlmironNEW100---------------+25000+25000
Dwight GayleNEW100---------------+20000+20000
Kelechi IheanachoLEI000---------------+15000+15000
JoelintonNEW100---------------+20000+20000
Naby KeitaLIV000---------------+25000-
Nicolas PepeARS210---------------+15000+15000

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is an eight-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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