Premier League Golden Boot Watch: Gameweek 4

Premier League Golden Boot Watch: Gameweek 4

This article is part of our Betting on Soccer series.

We're starting to see more separation between the players with the best odds to win the Golden Boot and the longer-shots who are starting to bunch up closer to the +10000 range rather than +5000. Playing for Aston Villa had a huge effect on movement this past weekend, with their 7-2 victory over Liverpool one of the most shocking results we've seen in a very long time. 

Ollie Watkins, who joined from Brentford back in September, scored his first Premier League goal and then added two more, significantly improving his Golden Boot odds from +10000 to +4000. Watkins actually debuted at +8000 but it was pushed to +10000 after he failed to put a single shot on goal in his first two games. Meanwhile, teammate Jack Grealish scored twice, giving him three goals for the season, and his odds went from +15000 to +6600. Both are still decent long-shots, but it's always fun to see that kind of movement after monster performances.

And while Liverpool got absolutely smoked, we can't ignore that Mohamed Salah found the back of the net twice, giving him five goals for the season, and he remains the favorite to finish as the league's top scorer at +350, which actually moved from +400 last week.

Watkins, Grealish and Salah were three of eight players to score multiple goals this past weekend, with Harry Kane, Callum Wilson, James Rodriguez, Son Heung-Min and Jorginho joining the party. Both of Jorginho's goals were from the penalty spot, and while I've referenced before just how important those can be for winning the Golden Boot (just ask Jamie Vardy), his open-play contributions are so limited that DraftKings Sportsbook continues to leave him off the Golden Boot odds list. Kane is now up to three goals on the season, and his +700 odds are the third-highest, which is a bit interesting considering teammate Son has twice as many goals but is +900. It could be too much movement for Son, who started at +6600 on Sept. 15 and was +2500 just last week. Meanwhile, Kane was initially offered at +500, the joint-best odds, and moved up to +1000 as of last week. Somehow Son's odds are level with those of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who has only one goal through four Premier League matches.

But the real story is Everton's Dominic Calvert-Lewin, now the only player in the Premier League to score in every gameweek this season. He is tied with Son for the league lead and his Golden Boot odds are now +650, better than all players but Salah. It's a pretty remarkable rise for Calvert-Lewin, who started at +6600, moved to +5000 after the first game and then to +1400 after his Gameweek 2 hat trick against West Brom. He came into this past weekend at +1000, trailing Salah, Vardy and Aubameyang, but he now only has the Liverpool superstar above him. It's worth mentioning that he hasn't had the toughest of schedules, playing Tottenham (away), West Bom, Crystal Palace (away) and Brighton, but all goals count and Calvert-Lewin, who does not take penalties for Everton, is making sure they do. And while he's far behind, teammate James Rodriguez scored two goals this past weekend, moving his Golden Boot odds from +15000 to +6600 as he joins 10 other players with three goals this season.

Speaking of players with three goals, we interestingly saw Wilfried Zaha drop from +10000 to +15000, putting him on equal odds with Jarrod Bowen, who didn't move from +15000 despite scoring against Leicester City. Fellow Hammer Michail Antonio also found the back of the net but his +6600 odds were unchanged.

And as of now, Timo Werner's +2000 odds are the best among players who haven't actually scored a goal, followed by Sergio Aguero (+4000), who hasn't made an appearance yet, Anthony Martial (+5000) and Roberto Firmino (+5000). Werner is also tied with Stuart Dallas and Che Adams for the most shots on target without a goal (four), so there's that. All is not completely lost for Werner if he can get back to his RB Leipzig scoring ways. Specifically, if he averaged the 0.90 goals per 90 minutes like he did during Bundesliga play last season, he could still reach 30 goals if he played every minute of the remaining 34 fixtures.

And before we jump into the updated odds and goals table, we must bid farewell to Sheffield United's Oliver McBurnie, the lone player to fall off the DraftKings Sportsbook Golden Boot Odds list after this past weekend. After starting the first match of the season for the Blades and putting two of three shots on goal, he's made three substitute appearances while putting his lone shot on target in 72 minutes, never improving on his +20000 odds. He now joins an illustrious list with Moise Kean, Dele Alli, Paul Pogba, Jay Rodriguez, Bernardo Silva, David McGoldrick, Allan Saint-Maximin, Leandro Trossard, Miguel Almiron, Dwight Gayle, Kelechi Iheanacho, Joelinton, Naby Keita and Nicolas Pepe as players who at one point were offered Golden Boot odds but are no longer available. We thank them for their attempts.

PlayerTeamTotal GoalsPensFree Kick Goals10/5/20209/28/20209/21/20209/15/20209/2/2020
Mohamed SalahLIV520 +350 +400 +400 +350+600
Dominic Calvert-LewinEVE600 +650 +1000 +1400+5000+6600
Harry KaneTOT310 +700 +1000 +700 +700+500
Jamie VardyLEI540 +800 +500 +1200 +900+1400
Pierre-Emerick AubameyangARS100 +900 +550 +500 +450+500
Son Heung-MinTOT600 +900 +2500 +2000+6600-
Raheem SterlingMCI100 +1600 +1400 +1200 +1200+1100
Sadio ManeLIV300 +1600 +1000 +1200 +1600+1400
Danny IngsSOU310+2000 +1400 +1600+2500+2000
Timo WernerCHE000+2000 +1600 +1200 +800+1000
Gabriel JesusMCI100 +3300 +2500 +1200+2000+1600
Raul JimenezWLV200 +3300 +2500 +1600+2000+2500
Marcus RashfordMUN100+4000 +2500 +2500+2000+2000
Sergio AgueroMCI000+4000 +3300 +3300 +1200+600
Alexandre LacazetteARS300+4000 +3300 +3300+4000+4000
Neal MaupayBHA420+4000 +3300 +3300+10000+10000
Bruno FernandesMUN220+4000+4000 +3300+2500+1600
Callum WilsonNEW420+4000+5000+5000+4000-
Ollie WatkinsAVL300+4000+10000+8000+8000-
Anthony MartialMUN000+5000 +3300 +2500+2000+2000
Roberto FirminoLIV000+5000+5000+4000+4000+3300
Mason GreenwoodMUN000 +6600+5000+4000+3300+2500
Kai HavertzCHE000 +6600+5000+5000+5000-
RicharlisonEVE110 +6600+5000+8000+6600+6600
James RodriguezEVE300 +6600+15000+15000+15000-
Michail AntonioWHU200 +6600 +6600 +6600+8000+8000
Jack GrealishAVL300 +6600+15000+15000+10000+10000
Tammy AbrahamCHE100 +6600+5000---
Kevin De BruyneMCI110 +6600 +6600+5000+5000+5000
Aleksandar MitrovicFUL210 +6600 +6600 +6600--
Patrick BamfordLEE300+8000 +6600+10000+8000+10000
Christian PulisicCHE000+8000 +6600 +6600+5000+5000
Hakim ZiyechCHE000+8000+8000+8000+5000+5000
Rhian BrewsterLIV000+10000 +6600 +6600+6600-
Riyad MahrezMCI100+10000+8000+10000+8000+8000
Chris WoodBUR100+10000+8000+8000+8000+8000
Gareth BaleTOT000+10000+10000+10000--
Olivier GiroudCHE000+10000+10000+10000+6600+6600
Diogo JotaWLV100+10000+10000+10000+15000+15000
Sebastien HallerWHU100+10000+10000+15000+10000+10000
Edward NketiahARS100+15000+10000+10000+10000+10000
Wilfried ZahaCRY310+15000+10000+10000+15000+15000
Che AdamsSOU000+15000+15000+15000+20000+20000
Jarrod BowenWHU300+15000+15000+20000+20000+20000
Phil FodenMCI100+15000+15000+15000+10000+10000
Lucas MouraTOT100+20000+15000+20000+20000-
Donny van de BeekMUN100+15000+15000+15000+15000-
Jordan AyewCRY000+20000+20000+20000+20000+20000
Ashley BarnesBUR000+20000+20000+20000+15000+15000
Oliver McBurnieSHU000-+20000+20000+20000+20000
Moise KeanEVE000--+20000+15000+15000
Dele AlliTOT000--+20000+20000+20000
Paul PogbaMUN000--+20000+20000+20000
Jay RodriguezBUR000--+20000+20000+20000
Bernardo SilvaMCI000--+20000+20000+20000
David McGoldrickSHU100--+25000+25000+25000
Allan Saint-MaximinNEW100--+25000+25000+25000
Leandro TrossardBHA100--+25000+25000+25000
Miguel AlmironNEW000---+25000+25000
Dwight GayleNEW000---+20000+20000
Kelechi IheanachoLEI000---+15000+15000
JoelintonNEW000---+20000+20000
Naby KeitaLIV000---+25000-
Nicolas PepeARS100---+15000+15000

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Andrew M. Laird
Andrew M. Laird, the 2017 and 2018 FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year, is RotoWire's Head of DFS Content and Senior Soccer Editor. He is an eight-time FSWA award finalist, including twice for Football Writer of the Year.
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