This article is part of our Starting Eleven series.
10:00 a.m: Bournemouth v. Burnley
10:00 a.m: Huddersfield v. Leicester
10:00 a.m: Newcastle v. Crystal Palace
There's unlikely to be chalk plays on Saturday's slate with six smaller clubs in action. That could make things exciting, but there's also a bigger chance of your roster completely flopping. There isn't one player who stands out at forward, with Salomon Rondon and Callum Wilson possibly being the most viable because they're at home. Rondon may have the higher floor with at least nine fantasy points in his last four starts, as well as three goals and three assists in his last five at home. Ayoze Perez has a couple huge matches over the last month, but when he doesn't make the scoresheet his floor is often very low because getting shots is far from guaranteed. Wilson has disappointed a little more with just three shots in the last two matches, both in decent spots. He's still easier to trust than Joshua King, who is a true representation of boom or bust. He has three braces this season, but just five goals in his other 26 appearances.
Jamie Vardy has the best odds to score and has made the scoresheet in four of his last five starts. The worry is that he has just three total shots in his last two trips to Burnley and Watford. He could end up being a trap, while Wilfried Zaha has a much higher floor because he's on the ball more and draws a few fouls per match. That usually leads to at least eight fantasy points per match, though he's hit at least 12 in eight of his last nine. Even if he can't make the scoresheet, Zaha's floor is better than almost every other forward on the slate.
Burnley are the only other squad in consideration, and they've fallen from their February highs. Ashley Barnes hasn't hit double digits in two of his last three, while Chris Wood hasn't done so in his last five. Dwight McNeil has scored in each of the last two , but his floor is still only around five points, averaging just 0.47 shots on goal per 90 minutes. Banking on Huddersfield's forward is a shot in the dark, but Karlan Grant has six shots in his last two starts.
Some players were moved from forward to midfield in a recent update, but that doesn't change anything on this slate. It's the same defensive players who will get the most attention, with Wilfred Ndidi possibly having the best floor after scoring 31.40 points last match from 59 passes, 11 tackles, five interceptions and five clearances (and zero goals or assists). That may not happen again, but his floor has hit 19 points in three of the last four matches. Of course, teammate James Maddison should be equally popular because of his role on set pieces, which has led to at least 15 points in five of his last six starts. Youri Tielemans continues to find ways to make the scoresheet with one goal and three assists in his last five, but his floor is lower than both Ndidi's and Maddison's.
One would think Luka Milivojevic has the same floor as those guys, but while he's the main guy on corners, his defensive numbers have dropped from earlier in the season. That's kept his floor around the 10-point mark, and the only time he comes close to 20 is when he makes the scoresheet. Then again, Palace draw a ton of penalties, and he benefits the most from them. Teammate Andros Townsend has become an afterthought, rarely producing more than 10 points.
The only other reasonable upside play may be Ryan Fraser, but his floor rarely pushes past 10 points. He whips in enough crosses to stay relevant every match, but he's made the scoresheet in just one of his last 11 starts. Defensive midfielder Jefferson Lerma has often had a higher floor than Fraser with at least 10 points in his last three.
There are a bunch of guys with floors around 10 fantasy points, though there isn't an exact strategy to picking between them. At home, both Matt Ritchie and Miguel Almiron should be in the conversation, but their numbers aren't much different than Juninho Bacuna and Aaron Mooy. Bacuna may not play a full 90, but he's been fairly safe to reach at least 10 points no matter his position. Mooy is a tad safer only because he's on corners, with 15 taken in the last three matches. You could throw Ashley Westwood into the mix as well, as he's scored at least 10 fantasy points in his last four .
DEFENDERS AND GOALKEEPERS
It's not the easiest slate for defenders, but there are still viable options who should hit around 10 fantasy points. Aaron Wan-Bissaka hasn't shown much upside, but he's been the safest of the bunch with at least 11 fantasy points in five of his last six starts. Teammate Jeffrey Schlupp isn't far behind with at least 10 points in four of his last five. For Leicester, Wes Morgan will likely be too popular with three goals in his last four appearances. The better route is to roll with one of the fullbacks in Ben Chilwell or Ricardo Pereira and hope they attack the majority of the match against Huddersfield.
Otherwise, no defender stands out on the slate, with the likes of Terence Kongolo, Christopher Schindler, James Tomkins, Charlie Taylor and James Tarkowski all possible to have around 10 fantasy points, but none are overly exciting. Without a big club on the slate, none of the defenders have high floors, as they don't rack up enough points from completed passes like the Chelsea and Liverpool guys.
It's kind of the same situation for goalkeeper since there isn't one huge favorite. The hope for Ben Hamer is that he makes a few saves and allows only one goal. That's more than possible, but Kasper Schmeichel will probably be the highest owned against lowly Huddersfield, who have had trouble scoring all season. It also helps that Leicester have allowed just two goals in their last three matches. The Newcastle-Crystal Palace match is the hardest one to predict, and neither Vicente Guaita nor Martin Dubravka has been asked to make many saves in recent matches. It's the same situation for Asmir Begovic, who is averaging just 2.61 saves per match.