Starting Eleven: Sunday Premier League Breakdown
Starting Eleven: Sunday Premier League Breakdown

This article is part of our Starting Eleven series.

MATCHES (EDT)

8:00 a.m: Liverpool v. Burnley
10:05 a.m: Chelsea v. Wolverhampton
12:30 p.m: Arsenal v. Manchester United

FORWARDS

There are three forwards who should dominate lineups Sunday. Liverpool are the biggest favorite and have the highest implied goal total, so it makes sense to use both Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane. While Salah's floor has been around five fantasy points in recent matches, that should change against Burnley, who have given up five goals to Newcastle and Crystal Palace in their last two . While Salah hasn't been on his game, he still managed a floor of 14.80 points in his last home start against Watford. Of course, Mane is in better form and has had a higher floor, scoring at least 10 fantasy points in his last seven starts, including two without a goal. On the same level, Eden Hazard usually has a floor of at least 10  whenever Chelsea are a favorite since he completes at least 30 passes to go with whatever he does in the attack. His scoring odds aren't as good as the Liverpool guys, but he's also likely to create a couple chances.

If you want to take a different route, Gonzalo Higuain is mostly goal or bust, but he's more likely to score than Hazard as the central forward. Pedro would be an interesting play if he starts since his floor is usually around 10 points, not much different than Hazard. Things are a little less certain for the other forwards, with Ashley Barnes and Raul Jimenez in difficult situations. Jimenez would be my pick, only because Chelsea's back line is a little less certain. As for the match of the day, Romelu Lukaku has three straight braces, but there's no telling what will happen against the Gunners. Then again, one of those came at PSG with a depleted squad. I'd probably consider Alexandre Lacazette or Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang first, not only because they're at home but also because they have better floors. Lacazette has also made the score sheet in six of his last seven appearances, including each of his last four.

MIDFIELDERS

Similar to forward, I'd be a little tentative with most Arsenal and Man United players. Of course, that doesn't apply to Paul Pogba, who was suspended for the PSG match and has already had a floor of 18 points against Liverpool. Sure, he only managed 10 points against Southampton last weekend, but with possibly more defensive stats available, he should be a good bet against the sketchy Gunners back line. If you prefer safety, this is a great spot for Fabinho to reach a floor close to 20 points, similar to what he did in recent matches against Watford and Man United. Otherwise, there aren't many attacking options I'd trust since Henrikh Mkhitaryan and the Wolves options are in difficult matchups.

It's easier to ride with defensive midfielders and hope for 15 points from a combination of passing numbers and defensive stats, a la Fabinho. That means Jorginho, who is almost guaranteed to hit double-digit points because he is averaging 83 completed passes per 90 minutes. N'Golo Kante isn't far behind and his floor has been better with more passes of late (at least 68 in three of his last five starts). James Milner could be a useful play, but his main worry continues to be playing time, with 90 minutes never a certainty. If you wanted to bank on defensive stats alone, Nemanja Matic and Granit Xhaka should hit at least 10 points, but neither of their floors are as defined in a difficult matchup with possession an unknown. 

DEFENDERS AND GOALKEEPERS

Defender should be easy because Liverpool and Chelsea defenders are usually near the top of the list and their matchups only add to that. Virgil van Dijk is first up with at least 19.80 points in three of his last four starts, and this has the makings of another  due to possession dominance. Joel Matip is in the same category, while Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold are more for upside on the flanks. That said, Alexander-Arnold had a floor of 21 points last match, helped by five corners and a ton of defensive stats. 

If you prefer Chelsea, only two guys have been constants, with Marcos Alonso always a possibility for 20 points, helped by attacking stats. Cesar Azpilicueta has assisted in the last two, but his floor is usually lower than Alonso's because of a lack of shots. Otherwise, the Arsenal and Man United defenders already have limited floors so they won't be as easy to back. Laurent Koscielny has been the best for the Gunners, though his numbers have been boosted with the help of three goals in his last five starts. At least with Ashley Young you know you're getting corners, even if his defensive numbers don't amount to much.

Alisson may not get many saves, but he has the best odds for a clean sheet all weekend, so he should be the favorite after scoring at least 13 points in his last four starts. Kepa Arrizabalaga is next, though Wolves always seem to get at least one goal. No other goalkeeper has great odds for a clean sheet, so there aren't many places to go. If you want to bank on saves and nothing else, David de Gea would be the choice at the Emirates. 

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Adam Zdroik
Adam writes on sports ranging from NFL and MLB to soccer and college basketball. Outside of writing, he has worked with a professional soccer team, Sporting Kansas City, and in the stats department at ESPN. He is a former Streak for the Cash winner and Michigan State graduate. 2018 and 2017 Finalist for FSWA Soccer Writer of the Year.
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