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Gibson has seemed like a prime change-of-scenery candidate for years, but the Ducks have not yet been willing to make the move, which might be a mistake considering his value would seem to be on the decline given his recent struggles. In 56 games a season ago, Gibson finished with a 3.19 GAA, the worst of his career. His .904 save percentage was right in line with the past two years, while his 18-26-11 record is largely irrelevant because Anaheim was a lousy team. The Ducks signed John Klingberg, Ryan Strome, and Frank Vatrano in unrestricted free agency in hopes of lengthening their lineup, but none of those moves matter much unless Gibson regains the form we saw from him early in his career.
The decline in Gibson's fantasy value has been precipitous over the last few seasons as the Ducks have transitioned into a full-blown rebuild. The 39th overall pick from the 2011 NHL Entry Draft registered a 2.98 GAA and a .903 save percentage en route to a 9-19-7 record in 35 starts last year. The Ducks have a bright future with the likes of Trevor Zegras and Jamie Drysdale as key foundation pieces moving forward, but that optimism isn't likely to elevate Gibson's fortunes in the near future. A heavy workload is the primary factor lifting the 28-year-old's fantasy profile, but Anaheim is likely headed for another basement finish, so fantasy managers shouldn't count on a rapid turnaround for Gibson in 2021-22.
Gibson enters 2020-21 as the unquestioned starter in goal for the Ducks despite a career-worst effort last year with a 3.00 GAA and a .904 save percentage. He posted a 20-26-5 record with only one shutout in 51 appearances. Gibson was backed up by veteran Ryan Miller last year, but the Ducks have given no indication of re-signing the latter, which leaves Gibson as the only experienced goalie on the roster. Look for him to see a lion's share of the starts ahead of likely backup Anthony Stolarz. Gibson's role as a true workhorse will keep him in the top 15 of fantasy goalies even if the Ducks' defense doesn't take a step forward and make his job easier.
Gibson took a step back in 2018-19, posting a 26-22-8 record with a 2.84 GAA and a .917 save percentage after compiling a 31-18-7 record with a 2.43 GAA and a .926 save percentage during the previous campaign. Part of his struggles can be attributed to the Ducks' injury troubles early in the year, and he dealt with an upper-body injury of his own that slowed him in February, but Anaheim simply wasn't a good team last season. It's clear that the Ducks are a club in transition, but there's no doubt as to Gibson's role as the primary starter. The American backstop will have to be a rock in goal for a young team trying to find its way in a competitive Pacific Division. Wins may be hard to come by for the 26-year-old, but expect his ratios to come back toward his career averages -- a 2.42 GAA and a .917 save percentage -- in 2019-20. Gibson should make 55-to-60 starts this year, and pick up at least 25 wins and three shutouts in the process, making him a solid No. 1 fantasy option despite his poor supporting cast.
Gibson has been the hallmark of consistency, finishing the last three seasons in the top 12 in save percentage -- he posted a .926 coupled with a 2.43 GAA to finish eighth in 2017-18. The 25-year-old was rewarded with a remarkable eight-year, $51.2 million contract extension in early August. This new deal will take him through the 2026-27 season and alleviate the pressure of a contract year but replace it with expectations of being an elite netminder as the Ducks' long-term backstop. Gibson will likely be overpaid by the time his contract expires, but he's in his prime now, posting a 31-18-7 record last season and keeping the Ducks afloat despite a slew of serious injuries. Nevertheless, the Ducks are in a tough division and will be leaning on a young corps of forwards, so outstanding play by Gibson may still fall short in the win column.
Anaheim handed the starting reigns to Gibson last season, and he didn't disappoint when healthy. While he was limited to 49 starts, he posted a sterling .924 save percentage and 2.22 GAA, which included a fifth-ranked .935 save percentage at five-on-five among all goalies with at least 35 games played. The Ducks have an excellent defense corps in front of Gibson, and the addition of Ryan Miller shouldn't be viewed as a negative. Gibson is the better netminder and the clear No. 1. Staying healthy is the only hurdle left for Gibson to clear to claim a spot among the high-end fantasy goalies.
The time is now for Gibson. With pesky co-starter Frederik Andersen being dealt to Toronto this summer, the 23-year-old is poised to run with the No. 1 starting job in Anaheim after posting great ratios (.920 save percentage, 2.07 GAA) in a career-high 40 appearances last season that amounted to a 21-13-4 record. Former Maple Leaf Jonathan Bernier was brought in by the Ducks this summer, and even though he's flashed glimpses of brilliance at times during his six-year career, Bernier's well-documented struggles in Toronto (under incoming head coach Randy Carlyle, no less) over the last three years make him a longshot to supplant Gibson -- who is sure to be afforded ample rope after impressing in 2015-16. Other than maybe Brian Elliott in Calgary and (ironically) Andersen in Toronto, there isn't another goalie heading into this season with a bigger opportunity to become a bonafide No. 1 starter (and reap the associated fantasy rewards) than Gibson. Keep that in mind when the top netminders start flying off the board in drafts this fall.
Gibson would be an excellent fantasy goaltender if he could find a way to earn the lion’s share of playing time in net for Anaheim. The talented 22-year-old seemed well on his way to doing just that last season, but he went down with an upper-body injury right as he had pulled into a timeshare with Frederik Andersen, allowing Andersen to keep the gig to himself with a solid playoff run. A healthy Gibson figures to fit into the team’s plan in net somehow after going 13-8-0 with a 2.60 GAA and .914 save percentage last year, but the Ducks didn’t exactly give him a vote of confidence in the offseason when they acquired veteran Anton Khudobin via trade. Gibson is probably the most talented member of the team’s goaltending trio, though that doesn’t necessarily mean the 2011 second rounder will be the one getting the most playing time.
Gibson was brilliant in three regular-season games with the Ducks last season. He won all three starts, including one by shutout, and recorded a 1.33 GAA and .953 save percentage. He was then handed the reins in Game 4 of the Ducks’ Western Conference semifinal with the Kings, promptly becoming the youngest goalie in NHL history to record a shutout in his playoff debut. He was ultimately pulled down 4-0 in Game 7 of that series, but by then, he had clearly established himself as the Ducks go-to stud of the near-future. Expect a platoon with Frederik Andersen to start the season, with Andersen probably getting slightly more starts based solely on experience. Gibson is a stud in the making, but the goalie gig likely won’t belong exclusively to him until 2015-16.
Gibson can absolutely dominate. And he can also come unglued. But such is the experience of most teenaged goalies -- we just expect them to be studs from the start. He's not exactly an athlete, but then again, neither was J.S. Giguere and look what kind of hardware he delivered to Anaheim. His development is ahead of where many thought it would be at this point, but it's better to see if he can dominate this season with the Kitchener Rangers of the OHL before we recommend him for deep keeper formats. Watch and wait.
