NHL Free Agency: Forwards Breakdown Part 1

NHL Free Agency: Forwards Breakdown Part 1

Relative to other years, the 2020 free agency period has been pretty quiet. With a flat cap and multiple teams saddled with bad contracts, there's just not a lot of cap space available for the glut of forwards. The big names still got their pay day, but more often than not had to compromise and settle for shorter deals (Taylor Hall) or less lucrative deals (Tyler Toffoli). Here's a rundown of the impact forwards that have changed addresses so far.

(All advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.)

Glossary

  • CF% = Corsi For %
  • G/60 = Goals per 60 minutes of ice time
  • GF = Goals For
  • GP = Games Played
  • SAT = Shot Attempts
  • SAT% = Shot Attempts %

The Skinny: Taylor Hall gives Buffalo a one-year tryout for $8 million.

The Raw Numbers: The former Hart winner saw his numbers dip significantly last season, going from 52.95 CF% in 2018-19 to 48.67 CF% prior to his trade to Arizona, and then falling further to 47.86 CF%, where he ranked ninth out of 15 forwards at 5-on-5 with the Coyotes. He scored just 16 goals in 65 regular-season games and two goals in nine playoff games last year.

The Impact: Hall liked playing in the playoffs so much he signed with Buffalo, a team that hasn't made the playoffs since his rookie season and that has ranked last in points percentage (.455) during that span. Jokes aside, give all the credit to coach Ralph Krueger

Relative to other years, the 2020 free agency period has been pretty quiet. With a flat cap and multiple teams saddled with bad contracts, there's just not a lot of cap space available for the glut of forwards. The big names still got their pay day, but more often than not had to compromise and settle for shorter deals (Taylor Hall) or less lucrative deals (Tyler Toffoli). Here's a rundown of the impact forwards that have changed addresses so far.

(All advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick.)

Glossary

  • CF% = Corsi For %
  • G/60 = Goals per 60 minutes of ice time
  • GF = Goals For
  • GP = Games Played
  • SAT = Shot Attempts
  • SAT% = Shot Attempts %

The Skinny: Taylor Hall gives Buffalo a one-year tryout for $8 million.

The Raw Numbers: The former Hart winner saw his numbers dip significantly last season, going from 52.95 CF% in 2018-19 to 48.67 CF% prior to his trade to Arizona, and then falling further to 47.86 CF%, where he ranked ninth out of 15 forwards at 5-on-5 with the Coyotes. He scored just 16 goals in 65 regular-season games and two goals in nine playoff games last year.

The Impact: Hall liked playing in the playoffs so much he signed with Buffalo, a team that hasn't made the playoffs since his rookie season and that has ranked last in points percentage (.455) during that span. Jokes aside, give all the credit to coach Ralph Krueger -- dismissed after just one lockout-shortened season in Edmonton, Krueger made such an impression that the biggest free agent forward on the market signed a one-year show-me deal that also signalled to Jack Eichel that, yes, the Sabres are serious about getting better. Hall has never had the chance to play with a center of Eichel's caliber, and with the addition of Eric Staal, all of a sudden, the Sabres' top six looks pretty good. Hall has never lived up to the hype as an elite goal scorer, but he is elite at driving play. If he can create space with his speed and retrieve pucks on the forecheck while leaving the shooting to Eichel, it could work very well. Interestingly, Hall's one-year experiment might even give him more fantasy value in dynasty leagues because, if Buffalo doesn't work out, he can sign with a better team next year, maintaining his long-term value.

The Skinny: Tyler Toffoli heads to Montreal with a four-year deal worth $4.25 million per season.

The Raw Numbers: Toffoli was excellent for the Canucks as a rental in 2019-20, scoring 10 points in 10 games during the season and another four points in seven games during the playoffs despite playing on a bum ankle. Even though the Canucks got buried and outshot nearly every game, Toffoli's 43.65 CF% at 5-on-5 in the playoffs ranked fifth among Canucks forwards (min. 5 GP), solidifying his reputation as a very strong two-way player.

The Impact: Ole ole ole! The Habs beefed up their offense and now have a pretty imposing top six with Toffoli and Josh Anderson now in the fold. That's a lot of scoring that Marc Bergevin has injected into the lineup, but the Habs offense won't live and die with its wingers… it'll come down to its centers, and as good as Toffoli and Anderson are, they will need Nick Suzuki and Jesperi Kotkaniemi to feed them pucks consistently. The Habs have a chance to be a dominant offensive team; the Tatar-Danault-Gallagher line rated as the league's best last season, but suffered from a lack of finish. It's very reasonable to assume the Habs, who ranked 19th in GF/GP last season, will move into the top half, or even top 10, next season. With playoff aspirations and a fresh start, a rejuvenated Toffoli could flirt with 30 goals and a 60-point season, making him a worthwhile mid-round pick, though that kind of production may depend on where he plays in the lineup; the right side is already stacked with Gallagher and Anderson, so one member of that trio may have to play on their off-wing. Montreal's best offensive seasons featured at least four players who put around 200 shots on net, and they'll have Anderson, Toffoli, Tomas Tatar, Brendan Gallagher and Shea Weber who can hit that milestone.

The Skinny: Ottawa lures Evgenii Dadonov with a three-year deal worth $15 million.

The Raw Numbers: Dadonov was just one of three Panthers to score more than 80 goals and generate over 3,000 SAT For over the past three seasons. He ranked second on the team in G/60 at 5-on-5, first in SAT at 5-on-5 and third in SAT% at 5-on-5 (min. 100 GP). He is just one of 17 players to score more than 200 points for the Florida franchise.

The Impact: Ottawa's big agent splashes are coinciding with a wave of youth that's graduating from the Senators' AHL farm team. Not since their Eastern Conference Finals appearance has there been so much optimism, and in any other season, there's probably little chance they could've lured a 31-year-old to a team that finished lower than the middling Panthers in a city that doesn't have the same personal tax advantages. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stuetzle, Drake Batherson, Josh Norris and Colin White are just some of the young talents the Sens will be trotting out, and it's a very skilled group at peak potential. Dadonov had Aleksander Barkov setting him up and he won't be so lucky this time, but he's scored 25-30 goals like clockwork, and it was a down year for him last season (25 in 69 games). He's Ottawa's best shooter now and he'll likely slot in on the opposite wing of Tkachuk, who is already an elite fantasy player. Dadonov's fantasy value remains largely unchanged as a mid-round, 60-point player.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jason Chen
Jason won the 2021 FSWA Hockey Writer of the Year award, and was also a finalist on 2019. He joined RotoWire in 2013. Jason has also written for Yahoo Sports, CBS Sports, The Hockey News, The Hockey Hall of Fame's Legends Magazine, and Centre Ice Magazine.
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