Frozen Fantasy: Playoff Crystal Ball

My head has been reeling this week. American Thanksgiving can do that to anyone in hockey.

And it's not about the tryptophan in the turkey.

American Thanksgiving is the mile marker that often predicts which teams will likely get into the postseason.

And which ones won't.

The Rangers, Sabres AND Habs are all in playoff spots heading into the weekend. Cripes, Buffalo is ahead of the Maple Leafs in the Atlantic.

They finished dead last in 2017-18. And the Habs weren't far behind.

Do any of them have a shot at a playoff spot at season's end? Especially with the powerful Pens, Panthers and Islanders all on the outside looking in?

I'm taking Buffalo. I think.

Five teams from the Central will make the postseason. But none of the teams in the Pacific deserve a spot. The Ducks have a minus-15 goal differential. They had 101 points last season.

Spit.

Some 75 percent of teams in a playoff spot now stay there. That stat has held up for almost 15 years.

Dig a little deeper. Teams with a .500 record at American Thanksgiving might be a truer indicator. I haven't done a year-over-year analysis on its effectiveness. But if it works for Kenny Holland in Detroit, it works for me.

Winning percentage is an easy calculation. Wins divided by games played. Period.

Anaheim's winning percentage is .417. Both Vegas at .458 and Edmonton at .455 are better. In the East, Montreal is at .478. Two teams behind them – the Isles and Canes have better records at .524 and .500, respectively.

The East has become the beast. The West? It's no longer the dominating conference. What a change from just a couple years ago. The transition from bad-to-good, and good-to-bad has been fast. The Ducks and Kings have gotten old and slow overnight.

It really is a young man's game. On the ice and in fantasy. I knew I shouldn't draft Anze Kopitar, but like a moth to a bare light bulb, I did it anyway.

Now let's take a look at who caught my eye this week.

Sam Bennett, LW/C, Calgary (5 percent Yahoo! owned) – Bennett has speed, skill and snark, but he's been a flop since his rookie year. It took him 21 games this season to record a multi-point effort. Is an offensive breakthrough coming for this fourth-overall pick from 2015? I'm not holding my breath. But he does have four points – two goals, two assists – in four games heading into the weekend. Maybe that can help.

Filip Chytil, C, NY Rangers (4 percent Yahoo! owned) – I love this kid. He got off to a slow start, but Chytil showed off his power forward talent with a five-game goal streak over the last two weeks. That was snapped Friday, but it looks like Chytil has found an offensive groove. He's young, so inconsistency will reign more often than not. But the Rangers are playing really well. Chytil will benefit AND help stir the proverbial pot. I'm buying.

Nikolay Goldobin, LW/RW, Vancouver (5 percent Yahoo! owned) – Goldobin has been here before and might even end up here again before season's end. Young players aren't all rainbows and unicorns – most are wildly inconsistent, from great to underwhelming in short swings. Goldobin had a three-game, five-point (two goals, three assists) streak snapped Friday. But he's a talented top-end winger who is on a 50-point pace. And he gets about a third of his points on the power play. Your format will help dictate his value, but I think there's something here worth rostering. Maybe I will again.

Noah Hanifin D, Calgary (14 percent Yahoo! owned) – Hanifin loves Calgary – he says he loves living in a rabid hockey market. I tend to believe him. His production has climbed of late – try seven assists in his last 10 games. Hanifin is on pace to match last year's 32 points, although his lack of goal production is concerning. Still, he's delivering right now and that's good enough for me. Hanifin is mine now.

Alex Kerfoot, LW/C, Colorado (13 percent Yahoo! owned) – Kerfoot is part of a quietly impressive second line in Mile High. He, Tyson Jost (a personal fave) and Colin Wilson are building their chemistry. It's a work in progress, but Kerfoot has still managed 11 points in his last 10 games. I finally got smart and dumped James Neal for Kerfoot. I should have done that a long time ago.

Esa Lindell, D, Dallas (34 percent Yahoo! owned) – His ownership is rising, just like his value. John Klingberg is still out and Lindell is stepping into the void. He's putting up points (two goals, two assists in his last four games), firing pucks and holding his own in the defensive zone. Check your wire.

Calvin Pickard, G, Philadelphia (3 percent Yahoo! owned) – I snagged him earlier this week when Brian Elliott went down and then failed to have him in net Friday night. I missed that shutout. Sure, it was against the Rangers, but that team has been hot of late. So this was a solid win. Can Pickard keep it up? I'm not so sure. But he's a clear option if you're like me and absolutely desperate in net.

Antoine Roussel, LW, Dallas (2 percent Yahoo! owned) – Meatheads no longer have a place in the NHL. Roussel is a little different – he can actually skate. So, if you need PIM, Roussel can deliver in bunches. He sure did this week – 35 minutes in three games. That's a huge jump in a category that typically comes in two-minute increments.

Bobby Ryan, LW/RW, Ottawa (8 percent Yahoo! owned) – Ryan has been miscast, maligned and mocked at various points in his career. And most recently, the Sens tried to force suitors for Erik Karlsson to take him in that deal, too. The guy deserves better. The once second-overall pick is on the quietest 57-point pace ever. And he has nine points, including four on the power play, in his last 10 contests. Surely there's space for him on more than eight percent of Yahoo! rosters. Even if he's not a sexy pick.

Back to American Thanksgiving.

The three hottest teams in the NHL right now are the Sabres, Rangers and Red Wings. Cripes, the Sabres are the best team in the NHL right now.

What a ride to turkey time.

Most remarkably, those teams all drafted in the top-nine last year. The swing from bad-to-good can be short. Very short.

And the on-ice product in those cities, along with Vancouver, Montreal, Long Island, Carolina and even Arizona, is starting to yank people out of their basements. And their seats.

If only we could build the same kind of fast, aggressive fantasy teams.

Maybe we can. I think I'm going to switch up my draft approach entirely next year. What have I got to lose?

Until next week.