Kisner had his second-best season from an earnings prospective only to his 2016-17 season when he notched nearly $4.8 million. The problem for Kisner in 2021-22 was his dramatic peaks and valleys. He finished second at the WGC-Match Play and fourth at The Players, which really helped his bottom line, but missed double digit cuts for the second year in a row. Kisner ranked ninth in SG: Putting, but 139th in SG: Tee-to-Green. That type of statistical profile often lends itself to difficult projections.
Kisner has been a solid player on the PGA Tour for the better part of the last seven seasons - there's no debating that. His ability to be better than solid, however, is the question. Not counting the COVID-shortened 2019-20 season, Kisner has earned at least $2.9 million each season since 2015. He's had one season that could be considered outstanding (2017) when he earned more than $4.7 million, but that seems like an outlier. Kisner's floor is high again this season, but the ceiling doesn't appear to be high enough to consider in a salary cap league.
Kisner is very consistent, but he's not going to blow anyone away with his game. He nearly reached $5 million in earnings in 2017, but he's since fallen back into his normal range, which is around $3 million. He likely would have reached $3 million under normal circumstances this past season, which is why it's reasonable to expect right around that range for the upcoming season. Kisner is getting closer to 40, but he still likely has a couple high-end seasons remaining.
When you win a WGC event, it sets you up for a solid season, no matter how you play the rest of the way. Kisner won the match-play event early in the season and while he didn't play all that great the rest of the season, he still managed to clear over $3.4 million in earnings. The win at the match-play event will be tough to duplicate however as will such a huge check, which makes Kisner tough to draft in salary cap formats this season.
Simply put, Kisner is just a bulldog. He doesn't look like your typical golfer, heck, he doesn't even look like an athlete, but more often than not, he gets the job done. Kisner's breakout season came in 2015 when he finished runner-up three times and earned over $3 million for the first time. He followed that up with wins in each of the next two seasons and he peaked with earnings of over $4.7 million in 2017. His production fell a bit last season, but not so much that it would indicate his game is regressing. Kisner should go in the first three-to-four rounds of a draft, but his number is always just too high to be a salary cap selection. His number is the lowest its been in the past four years however, so he's worth a look, but there probably isn't enough upside to justify his selection.
Kisner struggled to find his footing on the PGA Tour during his first two seasons, but he played well enough in his third full season on the PGA Tour to secure his card the following season and from there, everything changed. It's one of the more remarkable progressions on the PGA Tour in the past decade as Kisner went from a guy who never cracked the $1 million mark in his first three full seasons on the PGA Tour, to a guy who has now topped $3 million in each of his last three seasons. This past season was easily his best though as he picked-up a win, two runner-ups and a third-place finish. Though Kisner made a huge leap from season three to season four, and he made another nice leap this past season, it's hard to imagine Kisner can take it to yet another level next season. As such, he's not a great salary cap option this season.
Kisner made a huge jump between the 2014 and 2015 seasons; going from just under $1 million in earnings in his rookie season, to just over $3.5 million in his second season. It would have been easy to relax after such a season, but Kisner built upon that momentum and had his best season yet last year. He did earn more money the year prior, but last season, he picked-up that all-important first victory on the PGA Tour. Proving that was no fluke, he also scored another runner-up finish, his fourth in the past two seasons. Kisner appears to be the real deal, but is he capable of taking the next step this season? Possibly, but at his current price, he's probably not worth the risk in salary cap leagues. In draft leagues, he's a second- or third-round pick.
Kisner really struggled in his first two attempts on the PGA Tour, failing to earn even $400k in either attempt. Last year however he figured out enough to earn nearly $1 million. The jump in earnings is nice, but when you factor in his first two years on the PGA Tour, he's failed more than he's succeeded on the PGA Tour. He's young enough that he's likely still on his way up, but it's unlikely that the progression is anything major this year. As such, he's not a great salary cap option this year. In draft leagues he may go undrafted.
Kisner is fully exempt for this season after finishing first in the Web.com Tour Finals in 2013. He made the cut at the Masters and has a good shot at winning an event this season.
Kisner had his card for 2011 via Q-School, and although he showed next to nothing last year, there's always a chance he could fall into a Top-5 somewhere along the way. Kisner was a rookie last season, so perhaps he didn't adjust well to life on the PGA Tour, perhaps he'll play better the second time around.
Kisner didn't have a great season last year on the Nationwide Tour, but he ended very well. His two best start, a win and a runner-up, both came in the second half of the season. He'll need to start this season better, though, if he's to earn his card in 2012.
