OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 11 Picks

OwnersBox NFL DFS: Week 11 Picks

This article is part of our DFS NFL series.

OwnersBox's SuperFlex contests provide participants with a chance to roster up to two quarterbacks per lineup, opening up the opportunity for major scoring boosts and a more entertaining fantasy sweat overall.

Each week of the NFL regular season, we'll break down appealing candidates in the main Sunday slate for OwnersBox's NFL SuperFlex DFS contests. 

Quarterbacks

Josh Allen, BUF vs. IND ($8,200)

Allen got back on track in Week 10, compiling 25 fantasy points on the strength of a 366-yard performance. Allen now has at least 24 fantasy points in six of the last seven contests, a sample that includes four tallies over 30 fantasy points. The dual-threat quarterback has more than 40 rushing yards in four of the last six games as well, and he heads into another favorable matchup in Week 11 that could facilitate similar production.

The Colts have struggled in the secondary, especially lately. Indy has given up the fifth-most passing yards per game over the last three games (265.7), and the Colts also rank just outside of the bottom 10 of the league in yards per completion allowed for the season (10.9). Moreover, no team has allowed a higher completion rate on the road than the 71.7 percent figure Indy has conceded, nor has any defense surrendered more than the 23 touchdown passes allowed be the Colts this season. Factoring in the 4.8 yards per carry the Colts give up to quarterbacks, Allen's case is airtight.

Aaron Rodgers, GB at MIN ($7,300)

Rodgers underwhelmed in his return to action, generating just 10 fantasy points despite throwing for 292 yards against the Seahawks. The disparity between the yardage and the fantasy-point tally is essentially due to Rodgers failing to throw for any touchdowns, but he certainly knocked off any rust he may have incurred during his one-game layoff. The Packers quarterback now draws a matchup he's historically thrived in, as Rodgers has compiled 6,150 yards, a 50:7 TD:INT with a 67.9 percent and a solid 7.8 yards per attempt in 25 career games versus Minnesota.

The Vikings have allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game over the last three contests (255.0) and are yielding a robust 11.3 yards per completion at home overall for the season. Prior to the aforementioned 10 fantasy points Rodgers collected in Week 10, he had scored between 20 and 33 fantasy points in every contest following the Week 1 disaster against the Saints, further solidifying his case at a reasonable salary.

ALSO CONSIDER: Derek Carr, LVR vs. CIN ($6,400)

Running Backs

Najee Harris, PIT at LAC ($7,300)

Irrespective of how sluggish the Steelers passing game might be or even who's under center in any given game, Harris is the one constant from a fantasy perspective. With an 85.7 percent snap share for the season, the rookie is afforded no shortage of opportunities to produce, and he has generated double-digit fantasy points in eight consecutive games. Harris also has multiple receptions in every game since Week 1, sending him into a matchup against one of the most vulnerable defenses in the league to ground attacks with plenty of momentum.

The Chargers have allowed an NFL-high 155.1 rushing yards per contest and rank in the bottom half of the league in explosive rush play rate allowed (11 percent). Los Angeles is also facilitating the third-most RB yards per carry (4.8) and has given up the second-most rushing touchdowns (12) to the position as well. Harris should be set for another hefty workload through both the ground and air whether it's Ben Roethlisberger (COVID-19 protocols) or Mason Rudolph under center, leaving the rookie RB poised for another solid all-around effort.  

Joe Mixon, CIN at LVR ($6,400)

Prior to his Week 10 bye, Mixon put totaled 24 and 27 fantasy points in Week 8 and 9, respectively. The fifth-year back also has five total touchdowns over the last three games. Mixon has also picked up his participation in the passing game with four or more receptions in three of his past four contests. This week, Mixon gets a crack at a Raiders defense that's been increasingly vulnerable to the run as the season has unfolded.

The Raiders are yielding the sixth-most rushing yards per game (129.1), including the fourth most per home game (138.8). Las Vegas is also allowing the eighth-most RB yards per carry (4.6) and ranks in the bottom 12 in both second-level yards per carry (1.3) and open-field yards per carry (0.7) allowed. In turn, Mixon is gaining an elevated 64.0 percent of his yards after first contact, and his impressive 84.6 percent catch rate dovetails well with the 50-367-4 line on 67 targets the Raiders have surrendered to running backs.

ALSO CONSIDER: Darrel Williams, KC vs. DAL ($6,200)

Wide Receivers

Stefon Diggs, BUF vs. IND ($7,200)

Diggs was the primary beneficiary of Allen's aforementioned resurgence against the Jets in Week 10, with the star receiver posting an 8-162-1 line on 13 targets en route to a season-high 30 fantasy points. The double-digit fantasy-point tally was Diggs' eighth in nine games this season, and he also has logged at least seven targets in all but one contest.

The various deficiencies of the Colts' defense against the pass were already detailed in Allen's entry, but in addition to the previous numbers cited, it's also worth noting Indy has given up the sixth-most receptions (130), seventh-most receiving yards (1,654) and most receiving TDs (15) to wideouts, specifically.

DJ Moore, CAR vs. WAS ($6,100)

Moore has been victimized by Sam Darnold's increasingly poor play, as well as temporary fill-in P.J. Walker's limitations and inexperience. However, neither should play a part Sunday, as Cam Newton appears set to retake the reins of the Panthers offense after being eased back into action successfully over eight plays in Week 10 against the Cardinals. Moore has continued to see plenty of volume come his way despite the recent lack of production, as he's still seen at least seven targets in every contest this season.

While Washington's secondary was impressive against Tom Brady in Week 10, the Football Team is still allowing 279.3 passing yards per game, 11.1 yards per completion and the fourth-highest completion percentage (70.8) on the road. Washington has given up the third-most receiving yards to wideouts (1,741), along with 12 touchdowns to the position. The WFT has also allowed passer ratings of 99 or higher in five of the six passing windows, essentially opening the entire field to the versatile Moore.

Rashod Bateman, BAL at CHI ($5,600)

Bateman has quietly been raising his profile in the Ravens offense since his delayed season debut, logging no fewer than six targets in any of his four contests and eight targets in each of his last two games. The rookie has a pair of 80-yard tallies in his last three games and double-digit fantasy point totals in three consecutive contests. Bateman should be set for a solid role once again against the Bears, considering he's arguably surpassed Sammy Watkins as the No. 2 option at wideout for Lamar Jackson.

The Bears have allowed under 15 more passing yards per game through the air over the last three (241.0) than their season figure of 226.1, and they rank in the bottom half of the league with a 10 percent explosive pass play rate allowed. Bateman already has five catches of greater than 20 yards on 18 receptions, and his 72.3 air yards per game and 1.6 air yards per snap are both above-average figures as well. Chicago has also given up the sixth-most receiving yards (1,673) to wideouts and is tied with multiple teams for fourth-most TDs given up to the position (12), furthering Bateman's case as a value option.

ALSO CONSIDER: Deebo Samuel, SF at JAC ($6,800)

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce, KC vs. DAL ($7,400)

Kelce put together a prototypical 8-119 line on 10 targets against the Raiders in Week 10, numbers that netted 19 fantasy points. The perennial Pro Bowler is a virtual lock for 7+ targets in any given contest, failing to see that amount in just one game this season. The Week 11 marquee matchup against the Cowboys sets up nicely as well, as tight ends have given the Cowboys trouble all season. Dallas has surrendered an elevated 11.4 yards per catch to TEs as part of a 46-526-4 line given up to the position, along with a 10 percent explosive pass play rate overall that ranks the Cowboys in the bottom 10 of the league in that category.

George Kittle, SF at JAC ($6,300)

Kittle has been highly productive in his first two games back from a stint on injured reserve due to a calf issue, producing 19 and 16 fantasy points against the tough defenses of the Cardinals and Rams, respectively. Kittle has logged a total of 15 targets in those contests, as well as his first two touchdowns of the campaign. He draws a matchup against a Jaguars defense that allowed a 47-543-4 line on 62 targets to tight ends across nine games. Jacksonville is tied with the Chiefs for the third-highest explosive pass play rate allowed (11 percent) and has surrendered passer ratings of 94 or higher in four of the six passing windows, giving Kittle no shortage of space to rack up production.

ALSO CONSIDER: Dalton Schultz, DAL at KC ($4,900)

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Juan Carlos Blanco plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: jcblanco22, FanDuel: jc_blanco22, DraftPot: jc_blanco22, FantasyDraft: jc_blanco22, OwnThePlay: jcblanco22.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Juan Carlos Blanco
Winner of the FSWA 2016 Newcomer of the Year Award, Juan Carlos Blanco has been playing fantasy sports for over 20 years and covers NBA, MLB, NFL, CFL and Arena Football for Rotowire.com, including serving as the beat writer for teams in multiple sports. He has previously written for KFFL.com and remains an avid season-long and daily fantasy player in multiple sports as well.
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