Beating the Book

Last week was mediocre. I went 7-7 overall, lost my best bet (Broncos) and had a 3-2 showing in the Supercontest. 

This week I especially like the Ravens, Eagles and Giants.

For the podcast version of the article click here. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Falcons +2.5 at Panthers

I made this line 3.5, as I typically like the home team on the short week, the Panthers have been at least as good as the Falcons this year, and I like fading teams off heartbreaking losses -- the Panthers close loss to the Saints was one thing, but the Falcons flat out gave away the game against the Lions. Lay the wood. 

Panthers 27 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Colts -3 at Lions

I made this 2.5, so that puts me on the Lions. I'm just not quite ready to lay three on the road with Philip Rivers. 

Colts 24 - 23

Vikings +6.5 at Packers

The Vikings dealt Yannick Ngakoue over the bye, signaling a surrender of sorts on the season after getting blown out by the Falcons. If Dalvin Cook returns, he could go off against the Packers defense, but I'd expect the Packers to pull away. Lay the wood. 

Packers 30 - 21

Patriots +3.5 at Bills

The Patriots have been beyond shaky the last two games, but I'll put my money on the GOAT to call a competitive game against a struggling Bills squad. Take the points. 

Patriots 20 - 19

Titans -6 at Bengals

I made this line seven. While the Bengals should move the ball, the Titans could bludgeon them with Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown. Lay the wood. 

Titans 34 - 27

Raiders +3 at Browns

I liked this a lot better Tuesday when the line was only 2.5, but I'll still take the Browns at home against an average Raiders squad. 

Browns 27 - 24

Jets +19.5 at Chiefs

This is where I set the line exactly, and I'll take the Jets to cover two in a row, as the Chiefs are likely to take their foot off the gas. 

Chiefs 31 - 13

Rams -4 at Dolphins 

When I set the line as a pick 'em, I had forgotten the Dolphins replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick with Tua Tagovailoa, and that's probably worth about four points. Even so, give me the Dolphins as a home dog. 

Rams 26 - 23

Steelers +3.5 at Ravens

I set this line at 5.5, as the Ravens are rested off the bye, while the Steelers just survived a war with the Titans. Ben Roethlisberger doesn't look entirely right to me yet, so I'll lay the wood. 

Ravens 26 - 20

LATE GAMES

Saints -4 at Bears 

I set this line at only -3.5 as Drew Brees doesn't typically play well outdoors, and he could be missing his top receivers again. Take the points. 

Saints 20 - 17

49ers +3 at Seahawks

This is where I set the line, so it's a coin flip. You never want to go against Russell Wilson, but the Seahawks defense is bad, and the 49ers look like themselves again. Give me San Francisco on a hunch. 

Seahawks 31 - 30

Chargers -3 at Broncos

I made this line minus 1.5, so I'm on the Broncos, who were going toe-to-toe with the Chiefs before the turnover/special teams implosions. Justin Herbert is the real deal, but I'm taking the points. 

Chargers 24 - 23

SUNDAY NIGHT

Cowboys +7.5 at Eagles

I've seen only two lines, 3.5, and 7.5, but the first one strikes me as absurd, so I'm going with the second even though I'm on the Eagles. The Cowboys are Jets bad right now. 

Eagles 29 - 16

MONDAY NIGHT

Buccaneers -10.5 at Giants

The Bucs look great, but this is a massive number on the road. Danny Dimes better learn some pocket awareness fast though, or he'll get killed against that defense. Take the points. 

Buccaneers 24 - 16

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 7-7 last week to bring my season-long record to 48-56-1, lost my best bet (Broncos 2-5) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest to go 15-19-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.