Payne's Perspective: RB Draft Strategy

This is the second part of a series I'm doing breaking down the positions for fantasy football this season. I started with the quarterbacks and now will look at the running backs landscape. 

According to the NFFC, Christian McCaffrey, unsurprisingly, isn't just the first player taken at the position, he's being the top player taken overall. In fact, his ADP of 1.02 might be the highest of any player since that stat was tracked. The NFFC is a full-point PPR format further solidifying CMC's spot. How dominant was McCaffrey last season? He scored 156 fantasy points more than Aaron Jones who finished second among the position. Don't get cute if you have the first overall pick; take McCaffrey and start figuring out who to target with your next few picks.

The next three played in terms of ADP are Saquon Barkley (2.09), Ezekiel Elliott (3.25) and Alvin Kamara (4.90). In not one of the NFFC drafts (485) did any of these three make it to pick 10. Kamara was the only "disappointment" last season. Kamara's issue was an injury that since has healed, so he can be expected to bounce back this season in what could be a contract year if he's not given an extension. There's profit to be made if he falls to the back half of the first round. Getting back to Barkley and Elliott, obviously both are safe picks at their respective spots, and if you like Elliott over Barkley, go for it.

Dalvin Cook checks in as the fifth running back off the board, which may surprise some. A close look at his numbers shows that if you add his season average (20.9 FPPG) for the one game missed he would have finished third at running back. Not only that, but his FPPG was second highest. 

The next few running backs in the sixth to 12th spots are very much up in the air. Derrick Henry (ADP 7.93) takes a decent hit in PPR formats due to the lack of catches. His 18 touchdowns are likely to shockingly regress, and he is coming off a season of more than 400 touches, a minor red flag. I'm passing on him in the middle of the first round in favor of a player who can be counted on to catch more passes.

Onto the next three running backs per ADP, all of whom I think are going a bit too high. Even with a strong finish, Joe Mixon only ranked 13th in fantasy points at running back last season. Mixon (ADP 9.19) is being drafted as the seventh running back. The thought process is the offense should improve drastically and thus, so should Mixon's fantasy performance. One of the drawbacks is that he missed two games in each of his first two seasons and has seasons of 3.5 YPA and 4.1 YPA in two of his first three seasons as a professional. 

Miles Sanders (ADP 11.83) is another tricky running back to prognosticate. He finished as RB22 with 13.7 FPPG but had an increase in workload in the second half of the season. The lack of rushing touchdowns (three) is a concern as well as Doug Pederson's penchant for using a committee approach at this position. This is too high for me; I'd wait until the late second round, meaning he won't end up on any of my teams. Would you believe Aaron Jones (ADP 12.74) finished second at the position in 2019 with 314.8 fantasy points? That number was fueled by 19 touchdowns, and it's easy to point and scream "regression!," which is why he's going as the ninth running back off the board. There are two ways to think about how the Packers will proceed with Jones this year. After drafting AJ Dillon, does Jones lose touches near the goal line? Or do the Packers run Jones into the ground since they plan on letting him walk after this season? Jamaal Williams is still around as well, making this ADP too high for me.

Conversely, two of the next three running backs (per ADP) should probably be bumped up a spot or three over the previously three mentioned. Those running backs are Kenyan Drake (ADP 13.55) and Austin Ekeler (ADP 16.02). Drake has a tough divisional schedule, considering the opposing defenses, but this should be one of the best offenses in the league. His upside in this offense was on display the final three weeks last season when he totaled 413 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns. It was a bit odd the Dolphins gave up on Drake, who averaged 5.4, 4.8 and 4.5 YPC in his first three seasons with the team. 

Squeezing between Drake and Ekeler is Nick Chubb (ADP 14.63), who seems priced about right. Of course, the biggest red flag with him is the presence of Kareem Hunt, who will be around for at least this season. When Hunt became eligible to return to the team he made an immediate impact, especially in the passing game. Over his first eight games, Chubb hauled in 25 passes as opposed to the final eight games (with Hunt) where he had only 11. Still, Chubb has the ability to have a solid season at his ADP given that he's averaged at least five yards per carry in each of his first two seasons, with eight rushing touchdowns in both. 

Onto Austin Ekeler, who I think is too low as the 12th running back going in drafts. He finished last season with the fourth-most fantasy points at running back and was only 2.7 points behind Ezekiel Elliott. Maybe he doesn't get as many dump-off passes without Philip Rivers, but without Melvin Gordon he stands to gain more carries. During the first four games last season, Ekeler had 56 rushing attempts, which prorates to 224 in a full season. While that pr-rated stat is the upside, it is 92 more rushes than Ekeler had last season and at five yards per carry, that's 46 more fantasy points. That should easily counter any drop in targets/catches. Buy Ekeler all day and feel lucky if he falls to the late second/early third round.

BEST OF THE REST

This is a list of players I'm targeting and the reasons why.

Todd Gurley (ADP 28.17) – I've gotten Gurley in the fifth round, and he's gone as late as the sixth round, which is a steal. Granted, there's his knee issues to worry about, but the one-year contract he signed is telling. Gurley is only 26, and playing on the one-year deal means he is seeking out a lucrative long-term deal. The Falcon have no reason to hold him back as there's little talent behind him to push for touches. Remember Gurley had 2,556 rushing yards and 30 touchdowns between the 2017-2018 seasons.

Raheem Mostert (ADP 49.70) – This ADP has dropped the last few weeks and started when Mostert requested a trade due to a contract dispute. That dispute appears to be squelched and it appears Mostert should head the 49ers backfield.  Mostert ranked as the eighth running back last season from Week 12 thru Week 17 yet is going as the 25th running back this season. While his critics may point to regression for rushing touchdowns, he continued that trend in San Francisco's three playoff games with five touchdowns. He'll also get double-digit rushing attempts on a weekly basis this season, which he did not get early last year.

Damien Williams (ADP 65.75) – The Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP 28.94) hype train is full steam ahead, and he's gone as high as ninth (yes, ninth!) overall in NFFC. Yes, the Chiefs spent their first-round pick on him, and this is arguably the best offense in the NFL. However, there's no reason to think Williams is just going to disappear. The Chiefs picked up Williams' $2.3 million option last March, indicating they plan on using him more than a backup. Edwards-Helaire will need to both know the offense inside and out and effectively pass protect to get on the field. Williams has also been a very good pass-blocker and has 17 pounds on CEH, which could make him the favorite at the goal line.

Boston Scott (ADP 138.53) – Scott is going way too low in the NFFC leagues as the 50th running back. During the last four weeks of last season Scott was the eighth running back in terms of fantasy points showing his potential in PPR formats. As stated earlier, Doug Pederson has historically deployed a RBBC and it appears Scott will be second in line to Sanders.

WORST OF THE REST 

These are running backs who will be taken higher than I'll pay.

James Conner (ADP 38.60) – I love Conner and the background story about him and therefore I hope I'm really wrong about this. I'm worried that he's only played 23 games in the last two seasons and that injuries will always be a concern. There are some viable options behind him as well in Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell and now Anthony McFarland. If he's there mid-to-late fifth round, I might be interested depending on what my first four picks are, but chances are he'll be gone.

Ronald Jones (ADP 83.87) – Jones is going off the draft board as the 32nd running back, and, granted, pick 83 isn't a hefty price to pay for a running back who could start. That said, Ke'Shawn Vaughn should immediately carve out a significant role in this offense and Jones comes with baggage. He's never been known as a great pass blocker, and Tampa Bay just invested $50 million in some guy named Tom Brady. Jones averaged a mediocre 4.2 YPC last season, and when in a timeshare with Peyton Barber last season he only averaged 10.4 FPPG.

Alexander Mattison (ADP 105.91) – This isn't a really a knock on Mattison — it's more of a disagreement on how high he's going as a backup. Granted, there might be a possible scenario that Dalvin Cook holds out and Mattison is the starter come Week 1. I think that's an unlikely scenario, and my issue is there are more viable players to draft instead of Mattison who could start or have more significant roles. Jordan Howard (ADP 106.97), Phillip Lindsay (ADP 107.55) and Darrell Henderson (ADP 122.02) are three examples of players I'd take over Mattison. This Mattison sentiment could change in drafts held a month from now if Cook is still holding out.

ROOKIES

There are a couple things to consider when looking at a rookie: do they know they playbook and can they block in pass protection? Every rookie has at least one legitimate veteran in their backfield to share the workload, and for that reason they could be brought along slowly. Therefore, some rookies might not make an impact until the middle of the season and your team could be a lost cause by that point if you wasted an early round pick on them. I'm going to list the rookies in order of value considering their draft position. In other words, I'd value a player who's going at pick 100 and finished in the top 15 at the position over the player who finishes top 8 and is the 20th pick.

D'Andre Swift (ADP 48.99) – I'm not worried about Kerryon Johnson, and I've gotten Swift as late as the sixth round. Even if he's in a timeshare, you're not wasting one of your top picks on a rookie who might not take off until midseason. Swift is a capable three-down back and at worst the Lions might deploy him on early down with Kerryon handling third-down responsibilities.

Jonathan Taylor (ADP 32.11) – The second round seems too early (he's gone as high as 15), but I'd be comfortable taking him in the fourth round (he's gone as late as 63). While Nyheim Hines is still around for third-down work, Philip Rivers doesn't mind dumping off to his running back on first and second downs and Taylor is more than a capable pass catcher. While it's splitting hairs, overall I like him better than CEH.

Zack Moss (ADP 126.66) – I promise this isn't the Bills homer in me, I think Moss could end up a great value at a small price. He's supposed to assume the 2019 role of Frank Gore, who got 179 touches in only 14 games last season. Penciling in Moss for more than 200 touches plus a possible role as the goal-line back seems reasonable.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ADP 28.94) – Again, it isn't the player and his talent I'm against, it's the helium that's associated with his draft spot, which is likely to get worse between now and late summer. Should he take over at some point this season as the workhorse, look out. But if he struggles out of the gate and finds his way to Andy Reid's doghouse, the Chiefs will have no problem leaning on Damien Williams.

J.K. Dobbins (ADP 64.07) – Everything is telling me to push Dobbins higher, but that's too difficult to do in redraft leagues with a healthy Mark Ingram on the roster. Ingram might not be on the roster next year, which would easily push Dobbins into the top 8 at the position (provided no one else is brought into the fold). Until then, look for him to be part of a timeshare with Ingram likely leading the way.

Ke'Shawn Vaughn (ADP 103.96) – I'm not head over heels about Vaughn and his overall skill set. However, he has he opportunity to become the workhorse sooner than later in what should be one of the more potent offenses in the league. 

Cam Akers (ADP 56.96) – Knock his ADP down at least 15 picks and I could buy into him at that point. He dropped this far down the list because I think there's two decent running backs he has to compete with in Henderson and Malcolm Brown. John Kelly could even play a role, and it's unlikely Akers gets more work initially than Henderson and Brown combined.

AJ Dillon (ADP 158.51) – Like Dobbins, there is a good chance we're talking about Dillon as a much higher pick at this time next year if Aaron Jones leaves the team when his contract expires. I'd love to put Dillon higher, but even if Jones were to go down with an injury, Jamaal Williams is still around. It remains to be seen how much Dillon is used in the passing game as he only had 13 catches in his last season at Boston College.