This article is part of our ADP Analysis series.
Last week's big news was Cam Newton joining the Patriots, a move that would seem to have significant value implications for a slew of players. In practice, the big ADP shifts were reserved to Newton and Jarrett Stidham, while the New England ballcarriers and pass catchers moved up only 1-3 spots apiece at their respective positions.
Interest in most of the Patriots remains tepid, but Newton himself has popped up to QB16 this week, following last week's jump from No. 33 to No. 20. There isn't a whole lot else to discuss from an ADP standpoint, as the biggest piece of fantasy-relevant news this week — Raheem Mostert's trade request — only came out Wednesday night.
Given the limitations, I'll use the bottom part of the article to simply highlight a group of players that I believe to be overvalued at their current ADPs. Per usual, we're using data from BB10s, comparing results from last week (June 29-July 3) to results from the past five days (July 4-8).
ADP Movement
QB Cam Newton 
QB20, ADP 154.8 ➡ QB16, ADP 138.6
I was surprised when Newton barely cracked the top 20 after joining New England, as fantasy markets often overreact to big news. In this case it appears an under-reaction has been followed by a correction, with Newton moving much closer to where I have him ranked — 14th among QBs. And I actually have him 15th or 16th for best ball drafts, where job security and health
Last week's big news was Cam Newton joining the Patriots, a move that would seem to have significant value implications for a slew of players. In practice, the big ADP shifts were reserved to Newton and Jarrett Stidham, while the New England ballcarriers and pass catchers moved up only 1-3 spots apiece at their respective positions.
Interest in most of the Patriots remains tepid, but Newton himself has popped up to QB16 this week, following last week's jump from No. 33 to No. 20. There isn't a whole lot else to discuss from an ADP standpoint, as the biggest piece of fantasy-relevant news this week — Raheem Mostert's trade request — only came out Wednesday night.
Given the limitations, I'll use the bottom part of the article to simply highlight a group of players that I believe to be overvalued at their current ADPs. Per usual, we're using data from BB10s, comparing results from last week (June 29-July 3) to results from the past five days (July 4-8).
ADP Movement
QB Cam Newton
QB20, ADP 154.8 ➡ QB16, ADP 138.6
I was surprised when Newton barely cracked the top 20 after joining New England, as fantasy markets often overreact to big news. In this case it appears an under-reaction has been followed by a correction, with Newton moving much closer to where I have him ranked — 14th among QBs. And I actually have him 15th or 16th for best ball drafts, where job security and health take on added importance. Newton is already digging into the Patriots' playbook, and while he jokingly referred to it as "calculus", he probably won't need too much time to catch up with second-year pro Jarrett Stidham. My big question is whether the Patriots will add a new option-based shotgun component to the running game to take advantage of Newton's talent.
RB Aaron Jones 
RB11, ADP 14.8 ➡ RB13 ADP 18.0
Nothing specific happened in the past week to explain this change, so it's probably just part of the broader trend of drafters being scared of Jones. The 25-year-old should still be a consistent top-20 pick in "home" leagues, but he's falling to Round 3 in some expert drafts. While the recent ADP lines up with where I put Jones in my RB rankings, I'd much rather draft Austin Ekeler, Travis Kelce, George Kittle or Julio Jones in the middle of the second round. Some of Jones' 2019 TDs will go to Aaron Rodgers, and a few more will go to AJ Dillon.
The ADP Grenades
QB11, ADP 116.2
From a real-life standpoint, Rodgers has declined from elite to merely good, even if there's a large contingent of fans intent on ignoring literally every possible statistic to avoid this reality (shots fired). That doesn't mean the Packers should use an early draft pick on his replacement or rebuild their team around a less efficient form of offense, but it does mean the days of 8.5 YPA and a gazillion touchdowns are long gone. Also gone are the days of useful rushing production, with Rodgers coming off a career-low 11.4 yards per game last season. And it just so happens that the Packers did decide to draft his eventual replacement, and shortly thereafter they sent yet another signal about establishing the run.
Even if he takes back some of Aaron Jones' rushing touchdowns from last season, Rodgers won't come close to 20 ppg. I'd rather use a later draft pick on someone with less polish but more rushing upside, e.g., Cam Newton, Daniel Jones, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Gardner Minshew, Tyrod Taylor. Even Drew Brees in the same ADP range (QB10, 114.7) is a much better pick, as the ideal setup in New Orleans has allowed him to maintain his passing efficiency despite some decline in skills.
RB15, ADP 26.4
Fournette is a screaming value if you compare 2019 volume and production to 2020 ADP. The problem is that his 2019 stat line occurred within an unusual context, one where he was allowed to stack subpar snap after subpar snap as long as he broke off a long gain every so often. New offensive coordinator Jay Gruden brought his own passing-down back, Chris Thompson, over from Washington, and it's no secret the Jags repeatedly tried to trade Fournette this offseason. I still think Fournette could be traded before Week 1, and I expect his workload to take a huge hit even if he stays in Jacksonville. Dude is big and strong and fast, but he doesn't actually help you win games in the modern NFL. Gruden won't be impressed.
WR7, ADP 25.3
I could maybe understand this draft spot for standard scoring, but there's no way I'm taking Golladay over Allen Robinson and D.J. Moore (among others) under the full-PPR setup used by the vast majority of best-ball sites. Last year, Kenny G finished 9th among WRs in cumulative PPR scoring and 13th in per-game output (15.5), with 11 TDs from only 65 catches. Maybe this is the year when he finally sees 9-10 targets per game instead of 7-8, but I won't be the one betting on it. If anything, 2019 was the perfect opportunity for Golladay to shoot up near the top of the leaderboard for targets, with Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson set back by injuries while the Lions' rushing attack repeatedly proved toothless. Let's just accept that Golladay is Vincent Jackson 2.0, not Demaryius Thomas 2.0.
WR43, ADP 103.1
You're only allowed to have one football on the field at a time, and if you're playing in New Orleans that ball will spend an awful lot of time in the hands of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara. Consider that Ted Ginn and Tre'Quan Smith combined for 81 targets on 1,065 offensive snaps last year, while Jared Cook's fantasy value was entirely driven by long gains and touchdowns (he averaged 4.6 targets per game). The last Saints besides Thomas and Kamara to top 71 targets in a season were Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead in 2016, back when AK-41 was a junior at Tennessee. I guess Sanders can go off if Thomas suffers a major injury, but it's hard to find any other ceiling scenario.
Honorable Mentions: Josh Allen (QB7), David Johnson (RB22), Mecole Hardman (WR42), Jared Cook (TE10)
