Quarterback debates are the foundation of modern society, and maybe even the impetus for the creation of spoken and written language. We may never truly know if Joe Flacco is elite, but we do know we're all better for having argued about it.
Unfortunately, fantasy-football QB debates tend to be a bit less contentious, lacking the 'stats vs. rings' dimension that once made it seem reasonable to compare Flacco to Matt Ryan. By no means will I go out of my way to be controversial in the rankings below, but I do strongly encourage disagreement and all other forms of positive or negative feedback.
Keep in mind that the rankings are intended for 2020 redraft leagues, assuming Yahoo/ESPN standard scoring where 25 passing yards equate to one point and a passing TD counts for four. Personally, I prefer 20/6 scoring to boost the fantasy value of the position closer to its real-life value, but we'll go with what the majority of people are using, rather than what I think they should be using (a noble concession, no doubt).
The fantasy leagues I have in mind for these rankings are those with 10-to-14 teams and one QB spot. It's usually feasible to stream the position week-to-week in these leagues, which means draft picks should focus on upside more so than job security or floor. For example, I'd rather use a late-round pick on Tyrod Taylor than Derek Carr, knowing I can find reliable mediocrity — and probably even
Quarterback debates are the foundation of modern society, and maybe even the impetus for the creation of spoken and written language. We may never truly know if Joe Flacco is elite, but we do know we're all better for having argued about it.
Unfortunately, fantasy-football QB debates tend to be a bit less contentious, lacking the 'stats vs. rings' dimension that once made it seem reasonable to compare Flacco to Matt Ryan. By no means will I go out of my way to be controversial in the rankings below, but I do strongly encourage disagreement and all other forms of positive or negative feedback.
Keep in mind that the rankings are intended for 2020 redraft leagues, assuming Yahoo/ESPN standard scoring where 25 passing yards equate to one point and a passing TD counts for four. Personally, I prefer 20/6 scoring to boost the fantasy value of the position closer to its real-life value, but we'll go with what the majority of people are using, rather than what I think they should be using (a noble concession, no doubt).
The fantasy leagues I have in mind for these rankings are those with 10-to-14 teams and one QB spot. It's usually feasible to stream the position week-to-week in these leagues, which means draft picks should focus on upside more so than job security or floor. For example, I'd rather use a late-round pick on Tyrod Taylor than Derek Carr, knowing I can find reliable mediocrity — and probably even Carr himself — available on waivers throughout the season.
This stands in contrast to fantasy leagues with a superflex or second QB spot, where any real-life starter is a legitimate fantasy asset. In that type of format, I'd probably lean Carr over Newton, with the former more likely than the latter to get a Week 1 start. In any case, we won't be thinking of superflex or dynasty leagues with these rankings, but I'm happy to discuss any differences in the comments below, or on Twitter (@JerryDonabedian).
(Rankings updated September 2)
Tier 1
The regression monster came for Mahomes last year and now has its eyes on Jackson, whose notable stats from last season include NFL highs for YPC (6.9) and passing TD rate (9.0). Regressing the MVP all the way to league-average would be insulting, so let's be reasonable and chop 25 percent off both numbers.
That would push him down to 27 pass TDs and 905 rushing yards, taking away 66.1 fantasy points. This exercise leaves Jackson at 23.3 ppg, good for a two-point lead over second-place Deshaun Watson (21.3) and a 5.5-point lead over 12th-place Matt Ryan (17.8). We might also consider that a reduction in TD rate and YPC likely would correlate with an increase in passing volume, after Jackson averaged only 26.7 throws in his 15 games last year. Long story short, Jackson and Mahomes can lose a decent chunk of their breakout-year production and still be great.
Tier 2
4. Kyler Murray 
5. Dak Prescott 
Watson has the best track record of fantasy production, averaging 20.7 points or better each season. Murray benefits from designed QB runs— 63 last year, far ahead of Watson (34), Prescott (32) and Wilson (30), per PFF. Prescott has the best weapons and the best blocking. Wilson is the cream of the crop from a real-football, non-fantasy standpoint. With a second tier this strong, I can understand why drafters are hesitant to spent a top-30 pick on Jackson or Mahomes.
Tier 3
7. Drew Brees 
8. Cam Newton 
9. Carson Wentz 
10. Josh Allen 
11. Matt Ryan 
Taysom Hill may be a pest, but not enough of one to prevent Brees from finishing QB7 in ppg both of the past two seasons. Each of the three QBs in this tier saw his supporting cast upgraded in the offseason, and while the Eagles mostly added rookies, Wentz also stands to benefit from the likelihood of better injury luck (re: DeSean Jackson). Allen should improve his passing stats with Stefon Diggs in town, but I worry that his 2018-19 rate of rushing TDs relative to carries and rushing yards isn't quite sustainable (89-631-8, 109-510-9).
Tier 4
12. Tom Brady 
13. Matthew Stafford 
14. Joe Burrow 
15. Daniel Jones 
16. Aaron Rodgers 
17. Ryan Tannehill 
18. Jared Goff 
19. Baker Mayfield 
This tier is all over the place, featuring breakout candidates (Mayfield, Jones), high-volume pocket passers (Goff, Roethlisberger, Stafford), declining MVPs (Rodgers, Brady and a rookie No. 1 pick. The 11-spot may seem high for Burrow, but he's the guy with some rushing upside in this tier. Rodgers was good for ~300 yards and 3-4 TDs in his prime, but his rushing lines the past two years sunk to 43-269-2 and then 46-183-1. Burrow technically had 767 rushing yards and 12 TDs in 28 games at LSU, but his yardage would be closer to 1,150 if sacks weren't subtracted from college rushing totals.
I'm also intrigued by Brady playing with elite pass catchers in what could be a pass-happy offense, though it would've been more promising three or four years ago before we saw signs of decline. Stafford is as much of a wild card as a 32-year-old QB could ever be, as he averaged 13.3 fantasy points in 2018 (28th) and 20.8 in 2019 (4th).
Tannehill won't maintain the 2019 efficiency, but he has job security, mobility and A.J. Brown working in his favor, with the potential for added volume (27 pass att. per start) to make up for the inevitable dips in YPA (9.6) and TD rate (7.7).
Tier 5
21. Gardner Minshew 
22. Drew Lock 
24. Tyrod Taylor 
Minshew is more commonly found in the mid-20s of QB rankings, but I see legitimate fantasy upside with the rebuilding Jags potentially chucking 600-plus passes this season (589 last year). Minshew actually finished as QB17 in per-game scoring last year, despite playing partial games on two occasions and netting zero TDs from 344 rushing yards. I'm also encouraged by the presence of Jags OC Jay Gruden, who previously helped Cousins to three consecutive seasons (2015-17) with 4,000 passing yards and four or more rushing TDs (QB8, QB5, QB6).
*any QB
Scramble/Dropback rate....
Minshew 8.9%
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) February 11, 2020
Lamar 8.8%
Allen 8.4%
Watson 8.1%
Mariota 7.9%
Wilson 7.4%
Brissett 6.5%
Fitzmagic 6.4%
Bridgewater 5.5%
Tannehill 5.1%
Tier 6
25. Kirk Cousins 
26. Sam Darnold 
27. Jimmy Garoppolo 
28. Philip Rivers 
29. Dwayne Haskins 
We're now past the range of guys that will be drafted in the majority of fantasy leagues, which means ceiling becomes far more important than floor. You might not remember that Tygod had back-to-back seasons (2015-16) as a top 10 per-game fantasy scorer at QB. If we're discussing a best-ball or superflex league, then I prefer the Week 1 job security we get with Darnold and Garoppolo. But in the typical one-QB setup, I'd rather shoot for the moon with Taylor or Tua or even Haskins as a bench stash.
Tier 7
30. Tua Tagovailoa 
31. Derek Carr 
33. Nick Foles 
34. Ryan Fitzpatrick
35. Justin Herbert
36. Nick Mullens
37. Jameis Winston
38. Jarrett Stidham
39. Jalen Hurts
40. Andy Dalton
Winston is the one guy on this list with no path to starts apart from a teammate injury, but he should be a low-end QB1 if Drew Brees misses any time.
The inclusion of Mullens might come as a surprise, but offseason reports suggested the Niners turned down multiple trade offers, and I don't think Jimmy G is untouchable atop the depth chart beyond September. Mullens put up 8.3 YPA and 284.6 passing yards per game in 2018, winning three of his eight starts for a team that otherwise went 1-7.
