This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Football series.
Once again this weekend FanDuel is running two big contests with $1 million in prizes, one for Saturday and one for Sunday. Again this week I'll break down the action by the two games on each day.
Saturday features both No.1 seeds with San Francisco and Baltimore hosting games in their home stadiums. Both are pretty big favorites (SF-7, BAL -10) and are the teams to target for cash games. Starting with the quarterbacks, it's tough to ignore Lamar Jackson ($9,500) even with the hefty price tag. He has such a solid floor with his ability to run the football and has been over 20 fantasy points in nine straight games. The only other viable option (who should be left for tournaments only) to consider is Jimmy Garoppolo ($7,900). The only reason he should be on the radar is that he's the quarterback of the team expected to have the second-highest point total on the small slate. Note that he hasn't scored more than 13 fantasy points in his last three games. It's worth it to throw in a lineup with either Ryan Tannehill ($7,800) or Kirk Cousins ($7,600) given the narrative that they may be throwing often in the second half while playing from behind. The running back conversation needs to start with Derrick Henry ($9,800). The price tag is actually up from last week, and the Ravens are going to do everything in their power to stop the run and make Tannehill beat them. For his price and the matchup, he's a pass for me in cash games even knowing that he's had 22.1 fantasy points or more in seven of his last eight games. Henry is -134 to score (not a lock) and his over/under for rushing yards is 94.5. Absolutely use him in a GPP lineup given his upside. Raheem Mostert ($6,800) is the running back who interests me the most in cash at that price. He's scored at least 10.4 fantasy points in six straight games and is a lock for double-digit touches. Dalvin Cook ($8,600) is coming off a big week but is pricy and doesn't have a great matchup. The running back situation for the Ravens is something to monitor over the next 24 hours. Mark Ingram II ($7,300) would be a great play if he wasn't dealing with an ankle injury, putting Gus Edwards ($5,400) in play. Even if Ingram is a go as expected, Edwards could get more work than usual if the Ravens lightened Ingram's role at all. At wide receiver, the game in Baltimore really doesn't interest me. A.J. Brown ($7,500) leads all wide receivers with an over/under of 59.5 receiving yards, making him one of the top options. Next is Marquise Brown ($5,300) who is at 39.5 and everyone else is less than that. At least with Brown he's cheap, and it makes sense to pair him with Jackson in cash games. The 49ers game is much more interesting, and I'll start with Deebo Samuel ($6,600). Samuel has at least 12 fantasy points in seven of his last eight games and has scored a rushing touchdown in back-to-back games. Emmanuel Sanders ($5,800) is a cheaper option and has the upside to make him an attractive option in tournaments. Stefon Diggs ($7,100) is the healthiest Viking wide receiver making him the best option looking at the Minnesota side of the ball. Adam Thielen ($7,000) is coming off a good game but is dealing with an ankle issue. George Kittle ($7,300) is the highest priced tight end for a good reason; he comes into the game scoring at least 11.6 fantasy points in seven of his last right games. He's one of the first players to plug into a cash games lineup. Jonnu Smith ($5,200) would be an interesting GPP option but he faces the top team against opposing tight ends this season. Mark Andrews ($7,000) is an excellent option, and it's not a bad idea to use Kittle in the tight end spot and Andrews in the flex spot. The long shots of the week are Nick Boyle ($4,800) and Hayden Hurst ($4,700). It's not tough to see one of them finding the end zone and instantly making value. The pricing for the defenses is close enough that it makes sense to pay up for Baltimore ($4,800) or the 49ers ($4,600). However, the lean is to Baltimore with San Francisco coming into the game having scored 1, 7, 4, -2 and 4 fantasy points over this last five games.
There's a high implied total (51), and as a 10-point favorite there should be a lot of interest in the Chiefs. It all starts with my homie, Patrick Mahomes ($9,000). The Texans gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, so Mahomes should have a field day at home. The Chiefs have the highest implied point total of the weekend, and the Texans secondary is no where near 100 percent healthy. Russell Wilson ($8,100) and Deshaun Watson ($8,200) are close to Mahomes given their ability to run with the football. Aaron Rodgers ($8,300) is capable of throwing multiple touchdowns at home, so all three quarterbacks after Mahomes are in play for tournaments but listed in order of preference. Aaron Jones ($8,400) is the top priced running back and can be paired with Mahomes in cash games, and there is still more than $6,000 per player on the remaining budget. Jones has been hot as of late, with games of 15.3, 27, 17.1 and 28.2 fantasy points in his last four contests. Marshawn Lynch ($6,100) should peak interest in cash games after scoring in two straight, and Pete Carroll stated this week that he wants to get him more touches. Duke Johnson ($5,700) is an interesting contrarian play for tournaments. The Chiefs have struggled all season against the position, allowing the fifth-most fantasy points. The over/under on carries for Johnson is 15.5, suggesting he'll be a big part of the Texans' game plan. Davante Adams ($8,500) checks in as the highest-priced wide receiver this week after putting up 18.8, 16.1 and 19.8 fantasy points in his last three games. He's had 15.3 or more fantasy points in six of his last seven games. DK Metcalf ($7,000) actually checks in at a higher price than Tyler Lockett ($6,700) after last week's big performance. My lean is to Lockett this week, especially in tournaments, given the likely ownership between the two due to recency bias. Tyreek Hill ($7,900) is a solid play given that Vegas thinks it's more likely than not that he finds the end zone. Mecole Hardman ($5,300) and Sammy Watkins ($5,200) are interesting GPP plays; just realize they'll be either boom or bust. Allen Lazard ($5,400) is another tournament play after getting 17 targets from Aaron Rodgers over the last two weeks and should see single coverage all game playing opposite of Adams. Travis Kelce ($7,500) is a must-start in this slate given the volatility of the other options. He averaged more than five fantasy points per game over another player at the position and should feast on a defense that allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends. Jacob Hollister ($5,500) is the next best option given Russell Wilson's penchant for targeting his tight end, while Jimmy Graham is a good tournament option. Surprisingly, the Seahawks allowed the second most fantasy points to the position this season. Looking at the defenses, it's hard to recommend the Texans ($3,800) even though they're $1,000 less than the Packers ($4,800). I wouldn't bet against Russell Wilson, though I find myself ready to back the Chiefs ($4,300). They'll have home field advantage, and if they get to a big lead, that's when sacks and turnovers should be in play.