This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
L.A. Rams (+3) at New Orleans, 56.5 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
The Story: It's funny how both the conference title games mirror each other Both teams met in the regular season and had fairly epic clashes. Both contests feature one of the NFL's hot young gunslingers at QB facing down a future first ballot Hall of Famer. And all four teams are marshalled by guys who are usually considered among the best head coaches in the game. While it's always fun to root for underdogs and cinderellas, sometimes you just want to see the best go against the best, and depending on how you feel about the Chargers or Bears, these were the four best teams in the NFL this season. The Rams have been here before – had their Week 9 matchup with the Saints been in L.A. instead of N.O., they could well have been hosting this one too, but that 45-35 loss has them right back in the Superdome on the road to the Super Bowl. The story of their run-up to and through the postseason has been the emergence of C.J. Anderson. With Todd Gurley not quite 100 percent healthy, they brought in the former Bronco to handle the load in the backfield down the stretch, and he did so well they kept him in the game plan last week against the Cowboys even with Gurley healthy again. The result? A combined 238 rushing yards and three TDs from the duo against
L.A. Rams (+3) at New Orleans, 56.5 o/u – Sunday, 3:05 p.m. EST
The Story: It's funny how both the conference title games mirror each other Both teams met in the regular season and had fairly epic clashes. Both contests feature one of the NFL's hot young gunslingers at QB facing down a future first ballot Hall of Famer. And all four teams are marshalled by guys who are usually considered among the best head coaches in the game. While it's always fun to root for underdogs and cinderellas, sometimes you just want to see the best go against the best, and depending on how you feel about the Chargers or Bears, these were the four best teams in the NFL this season. The Rams have been here before – had their Week 9 matchup with the Saints been in L.A. instead of N.O., they could well have been hosting this one too, but that 45-35 loss has them right back in the Superdome on the road to the Super Bowl. The story of their run-up to and through the postseason has been the emergence of C.J. Anderson. With Todd Gurley not quite 100 percent healthy, they brought in the former Bronco to handle the load in the backfield down the stretch, and he did so well they kept him in the game plan last week against the Cowboys even with Gurley healthy again. The result? A combined 238 rushing yards and three TDs from the duo against what had been one of the stingier run defenses in the league. New Orleans was even tougher on the ground than Dallas this season (second in YPC allowed versus fifth), but Los Angeles' offensive line has been so in sync – the Rams used the same five starters in every game this year – that it really might not matter who's lined up against it. Of course, when the Rams do air it out, Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods are capable of doing a lot of damage themselves, especially against a secondary that's had its issues. While all that is well and good, what happened last time the Rams made the trip down to the bayou was no fluke. The Saints lost two games at home all year: in Week 1 when they got Fitzmagicked, and Week 17 when they rested everybody in a meaningless game. In between, they ran roughshod over the opposition, with an average score of 37-21 in those six consecutive regular-season wins before last week's more narrow victory over the Eagles. New Orleans has its own two-headed monster in the backfield in Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, and Drew Brees put on a clinic for the last 59 minutes against Philly. More important, they'll be matched up against a defense that, despite its star power, had trouble slowing anybody down in 2018. The Rams were last in YPC allowed and tied for 25th in passing TDs allowed during the regular season, and while getting Aqib Talib back in Week 14 helped, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips will need to find a way to disrupt at least some facet of the Saints' offense if they're going to stand a chance.
The Skinny:
•LAR injuries: none
•NO injuries: TE Ben Watson (questionable, illness); WR Keith Kirkwood (questionable, calf)
•LAR DFS chalk: Cooks (NO 30th on DVOA vs. WR1), Woods (NO 31st in DVOA vs. WR2), Goff (NO 27th in QB rating against)
•NO DFS chalk: Kamara / Ingram (LAR 32nd in YPC allowed), Michael Thomas (LAR 28th in DVOA vs. WR1)
•LAR DFS tournament plays: Gurley (NO 29th in passing game DVOA vs. RB)
•NO DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: dome
The Scoop: Gurley leads the Rams backfield with 100 combined yards and a TD, but Anderson's impact is minimal. Goff throws for 310 yards and touchdowns to Cooks and Woods, with the latter topping 100 yards. Kamara piles up 120 combined yards and two scores, one rushing and one receiving, while Ingram adds 50 yards. Brees throws for 280 yards and two more TDs, finding Thomas and Kirkwood. Saints, 31-24
New England (+3) at Kansas City, 55.5 o/u – Sunday, 6:40 p.m. EST
The Story: When these two teams met in Foxboro in Week 6, they combined for 83 points – including 30 in the fourth quarter alone – and a Stephen Gostkowski game-winning field goal with no time on the clock, so it's safe to say expectations will be pretty high this time around. As you'd expect from a game with that kind of score, there were some massive individual performances, but most of them came from the Chiefs. Sony Michel did run for 106 yards and two TDs, but otherwise the Pats' big names were surprisingly quiet, all things considered. Sure, Tom Brady threw for 340 yards, but he only tossed one touchdown (though he did run one in when Kansas City pass rusher Breeland Speaksgot too worried about a roughing the passer flag). Rob Gronkowski led the way through the air with a 3-97-0 line on four targets – a yardage total, incidentally, he's topped only once since. In fact, it was one of only two games this season in which Gostkowski kicked more FGs than the team scored TDs. Nonetheless, Bill Belichick's crew is 4-0 this season against playoff teams. On the other hand, their 3-5 road record is the worst among the four remaining squads, while the Chiefs have only lost at home once all season – against the Chargers in Week 15, who were seeing them for the second time. Hmm. Looking back, that game against the Patriots was really the one that cemented Patrick Mahomes' status as the best young quarterback in the game. He was coming off his worst performance to date against the Jags, and chatter was just beginning to bubble about whether the league was figuring him out. Four TDs, 352 passing yards and one comeback against the mighty Patriots that fell just short later, and Mahomes was truly a made man. Tyreek Hill was his biggest weapon in that one, but Travis Kelce, Sammy Watkins or the surprising backfield duo of Damien Williams (506 scrimmage yards and seven TDs in the last five games, including last week's big performance against the Colts) and Spencer Ware could step up if needed. If you're looking for history to be your guide, consider this: Belichick is 6-2 in his career against Andy Reid, including 2-0 in the playoffs. However, the Pats lost their last trip to Arrowhead Stadium (a 41-14 drubbing in Week 4 of 2014), and Reid's offensive scheme has had little trouble winning the chess match against Belichick's defenses – over the Hoodied One's entire Patriots career, the opposition has scored 40 or more points only seven times in 342 games. Reid's Chiefs have done it three times in their last four meetings.
The Skinny:
•NE injuries: none
•KC injuries: none
•NE DFS chalk: Michel (KC 31st in YPC allowed, tied for 29th in rushing TDs allowed)
•KC DFS chalk: Williams / Ware (NE 29th in YPC allowed)
•NE DFS tournament plays: Phillip Dorsett (KC 29th in DVOA vs. WR3), Gronkowski (KC 25th in DVOA vs. TE)
•KC DFS tournament plays: none
•Weather forecast: cloudy, temperature in the mid-20s, less than 10 mph wind, zero percent chance of snow
The Scoop: Michel bangs out 90 yards, but Rex Burkhead vultures a TD while James White adds 70 combined yards and a receiving score. Brady throws for 280 yards and two more touchdowns, finding Gronk and Dorsett. Williams piles up 110 combined yards and a receiving score, while a healthy Ware adds 60 yards and a rushing touchdown. Mahomes rises to the occasion, throwing for 320 yards and two more TDs to Hill and Watkins, and he returns the favor from Week 6 by running in a fourth-quarter score of his own. Chiefs, 38-34
Postseason record: 3-5, 2-6 ATS, 4-4 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
2017 regular-season record: 164-92, 111-131-14 ATS, 114-138-4 o/u
2016 regular-season record: 155-99-2, 110-136-10 ATS, 139-112-5 o/u
2015 regular-season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS
