This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at Week 13:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 50.70% | 450 | 81.82 | 9.22 |
| PACKERS | Cardinals | 15.50% | 1012.5 | 91.01 | 1.39 |
| TITANS | Jets | 12.90% | 425 | 80.95 | 2.46 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 5.80% | 1150 | 92.00 | 0.46 |
| Rams | LIONS | 4.50% | 425 | 80.95 | 0.86 |
| TEXANS | Browns | 3.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.88 |
| EAGLES | Redskins | 2.30% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.64 |
| Broncos | BENGALS | 1.20% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.41 |
| DOLPHINS | Bills | 1.00% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.31 |
| Colts | JAGUARS | 0.80% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.27 |
| Saints | COWBOYS | 0.80% | 325 | 76.47 | 0.19 |
| Bears | GIANTS | 0.60% | 215 | 68.25 | 0.19 |
| PATRIOTS | Vikings | 0.30% | 245 | 71.01 | 0.09 |
| Panthers | BUCCANEERS | 0.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.11 |
| STEELERS | Chargers | 0.10% | 172.5 | 63.30 | 0.04 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
I could see the Raiders showing up and giving their best, but it's hard to imagine them winning this game outright. I give the Chiefs a 92 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are mediocre, but they're much better at home, and they get arguably the worst team in the NFL to beat up on. I give them
Let's take a look at Week 13:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEAHAWKS | 49ers | 50.70% | 450 | 81.82 | 9.22 |
| PACKERS | Cardinals | 15.50% | 1012.5 | 91.01 | 1.39 |
| TITANS | Jets | 12.90% | 425 | 80.95 | 2.46 |
| Chiefs | RAIDERS | 5.80% | 1150 | 92.00 | 0.46 |
| Rams | LIONS | 4.50% | 425 | 80.95 | 0.86 |
| TEXANS | Browns | 3.00% | 240 | 70.59 | 0.88 |
| EAGLES | Redskins | 2.30% | 260 | 72.22 | 0.64 |
| Broncos | BENGALS | 1.20% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.41 |
| DOLPHINS | Bills | 1.00% | 220 | 68.75 | 0.31 |
| Colts | JAGUARS | 0.80% | 195 | 66.10 | 0.27 |
| Saints | COWBOYS | 0.80% | 325 | 76.47 | 0.19 |
| Bears | GIANTS | 0.60% | 215 | 68.25 | 0.19 |
| PATRIOTS | Vikings | 0.30% | 245 | 71.01 | 0.09 |
| Panthers | BUCCANEERS | 0.30% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.11 |
| STEELERS | Chargers | 0.10% | 172.5 | 63.30 | 0.04 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
Keep in mind the percentage-owned numbers get very noisy this time of year, so you must look at your particular pools to see who has what teams available and do your own estimates.
My Picks
1. Kansas City Chiefs
I could see the Raiders showing up and giving their best, but it's hard to imagine them winning this game outright. I give the Chiefs a 92 percent chance to win this game.
2. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are mediocre, but they're much better at home, and they get arguably the worst team in the NFL to beat up on. I give them a 90 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are coming off a bye and facing a Lions team that's missing key players and below average on both sides of the ball. I give them an 84 percent chance of winning this game.
4. Seattle Seahawks
If they're really 50 percent owned, I'd move them down a couple spots, but again, this time of year, those numbers are noisy. The 49ers know them well, and Seattle is at risk of overlooking them after a big road win in Carolina, but Nick Mullens isn't good, and the Niners just cut one of their best defensive players. I give the Seahawks an 82 percent chance to win this game.
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5. Tennessee Titans
They're coming off a short week, but at least they're at home, Marcus Mariota looks completely healthy for the first time in weeks and the Jets are weak on both sides of the ball. I give the Titans an 80 percent chance to win this game.
6. Denver Broncos
Case Keenum on the road is far from ideal, but the Bengals are one of the league's worst defensive teams, and Andy Dalton is now out for the year too. I give the Broncos a 73 percent chance to win this game.
7. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are arguably the NFL's best team, but going on the road agianst a tough Dallas team that can control the clock is a tall order. I give the Saints a 68 percent chance to win this game.
8. Philadelphia Eagles
I don't trust this team at all, but the Redskins are down to their backup QB and have virtually no explosive players on offense. I give the Eagles a 66 percent chance to win this game.
9. Miami Dolphins
They're not a good team, but the Bills offense is still bottom of the barrel, and Miami has played better at home. I give the Dolphins a 65-percent chance to win this game.
10. Houston Texans
The Browns are dangerous now that Baker Mayfield has a real offensive coordinator, but the game is in Houston, Deshaun Watson looks like the real thing and the Texans defense is playing well. I give the Texans a 62 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissons:
New England Patriots - The Vikings defense is hitting its stride, and Minnesota needs this game to stay in the playoff hunt.
Indianapolis Colts - They're on a roll, while the Jaguars have imploded, but a divisional road game against a good defense is too dangerous.
Pittsburgh Steelers - I like the Steelers at home, but the Chargers are a tough opponent, and it looks like their best defensive player is finally back.
Chicago Bears - There's a chance Chase Daniel starts, in which case you can't consider them. If Mitch Trubisky is cleared, move them to No. 9.
Carolina Panthers - The Panthers defense isn't great, and the Bucs offense gives them a puncher's chance.
