NFL Reactions: Season in Peril

One of last year's Super Bowl teams just about tied up a playoff spot with their win Sunday, while the other team is in a tailspin after squandering a 17-0 lead at home. It's not surprising that the Patriots sit at 5-2 in the former case, but it's quite unexpected to see the Eagles at 3-4 in the latter instance. It's particularly painful for Philadelphia that today's loss looked initially like it would be an easy win.

Cam Newton led the Panthers on a 21-0 run, however, and in the process he dealt a substantial blow to Philadelphia's playoff hopes. According to the New York Times' Playoff Machine, the Eagles now have a 30 percent shot of making the playoffs, behind both Washington (60 percent) and Dallas (32 percent). The good news is they play in the league's worst division. The bad news is they still have road games against the Saints and Rams.

As dire as Philadelphia's situation might be, it's nothing compared to the spectacular collapse occurring in Jacksonville. The Jaguars were supposed to build on last year's playoff berth, but they too find themselves at 3-4, and with much worse chances of bouncing back. Whereas Philadelphia has Carson Wentz to rally around, things have gotten so bad with Blake Bortles that the Jags turned to Cody Kessler against the Texans. Houston headed into the game with a pass defense ranked 18th by Pro Football Reference's expected points metric, but Bortles could complete only 6-of-12 passes for 61 yards while losing two fumbles. Kessler completed 21-of-30 passes for 156 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. It's hard to see how you fix this. The Playoff Machine gives the Jags a 20 percent chance of making the playoffs – a stunning letdown for a team that was generally considered a Super Bowl contender.

Taking a step back more generally, there are five teams the metric assigns a 70 percent or greater chance of making the playoffs: the Rams (99 percent), Kansas City (92 percent), New England (83 percent), New Orleans (82 percent), and the Chargers (73 percent). The AFC North notably includes three teams considered likely to make the playoffs in Baltimore (65 percent), Cincinnati (56 percent), and Pittsburgh (54 percent), while the NFC North is the league's most wide-open division with the fourth-place Lions assigned a 27 percent chance of a playoff berth at 3-3.

• The Patriots withstood a Hail Mary to Kevin White on the last play of the game that stopped short of the end zone, giving Mitch Trubisky another 54 passing yards but a loss all the same. Trubisky has stuffed the stat sheet in his last three games, but he badly struggled as a passer against the Patriots. Even with the Hail Mary tacked on, Trubisky finished 26-of-50 for 333 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. That's a lot of stalled drives. Fantasy owners won't complain one bit, especially with 81 yards and another touchdown on the ground, but Trubisky still has a lot of work to do as a passer.

• The game could otherwise prove costly for the Patriots, who saw Sony Michel leave early with a knee injury. No diagnosis or prognosis is floating around as of press time, but if Michel misses time then we'll really find out how much work James White can handle. He's on pace to be a potential league-winning sort of value for many of his owners, as he has 569 yards and seven touchdowns from scrimmage heading into his eighth game.

• The Titans still seem somewhat hopeless, but at least Dion Lewis is trending upward convincingly. In a game where Derrick Henry totaled just 33 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries, Lewis turned 13 carries into 91 yards and six targets into six receptions for 64 yards. With Marcus Mariota unable to throw downfield, Tajae Sharpe could establish some real value going forward, especially in PPR formats. Sharpe is thin, but he has a precise game that plays well from the slot. He might be comparable to Keelan Cole or someone like that.

• Marlon Mack is one of the league's hottest running backs following a Sunday effort where he ran for 126 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries while turning three targets into two catches for 33 yards and another touchdown, but this game could easily go down as his best of the year. The Bills defense was completely overwhelmed Sunday, as the rookie running back tandem of Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins also ran wild, combining for 93 yards on 11 carries. When Mack starts producing where Hines and Wilkins can't, then we'll know he's locked in for good. Whatever happens next, Mack's last two efforts were very promising.

• It's difficult to tell from the tape whether the Browns declined to run any downfield routes, or whether the downfield routes they called just weren't working. It could be a failure on Baker Mayfield's part, but the Browns struggled to function consistently in the passing game, against a Tampa pass defense that gave everyone a green light before Sunday. But Mayfield finished 23-of-34 for just 215 yards, though he otherwise scored twice and added 43 yards on the ground. The Browns really could use an impact receiver other than Jarvis Landry, because Antonio Callaway and Damion Ratley appear overmatched. That Duke Johnson saw only four targets in light of that is confusing and disheartening.

• The Buccaneers of course have much more invested in Jameis Winston than Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the current evidence for the latter's superiority is rather elusive. While Winston can only be blamed so much against a frightening Cleveland pass rush, two interceptions and two fumbles aren't a good look. I think it's safe to say that Fitzpatrick's deep ball is better. Winston's job security appears quite sound, but I wouldn't expect Tampa to make as many big plays as they used to. Winston seems to lean on Chris Godwin and Adam Humphries at DeSean Jackson's expense, while Fitzpatrick presented the vice versa.

• The Lions finally gave Kerryon Johnson a workhorse audition, and he more than came through with 158 yards on 19 carries, adding two catches for 21 yards. LeGarrette Blount still saw 10 carries, but Johnson's owners would probably accept the deal if he gets twice as many carries as Blount going forward. Johnson's production Sunday only gives Detroit reason to lean on him more.

• Taysom Hill is actually a problem for owners of Saints players. They should still post big enough volume as an offense to make content those who invested in Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram, and Michael Thomas, but the upside scenario for any of the three in any week is at some risk due to Hill's presence. Perhaps Hill's lost fumble from Sunday will put the brakes on this trend, but Hill's carry count increased each of the last four games, and it seems like we can expect him to play 10-to-15 snaps per game going forward. I really doubt he'll establish any practical fantasy value for himself, but four red-zone carries in the last month is a concerning development for Kamara and Ingram especially.

• You have to wonder how Arizona let John Brown walk in free agency now that we know how well he can still play. By catching all seven of his targets Sunday for 134 yards and a touchdown, Brown is on pace for a 1,275-yard, nine-touchdown season. Making only $5 million on his one-year deal, Brown can expect to make at least twice as much in 2019 if he keeps this up.

• Allen Hurns and Michael Gallup were obviously the best Dallas receivers going in to this year, so it's weird that the Cowboys didn't choose to utilize them accordingly until Sunday. The duo combined for just 38 targets in the prior six games, but against Washington they combined for 11 targets. Who knows whether Dallas will stick with that approach, but it would be in Dak Prescott's best interests if so. Gallup finished Sunday's game with three catches for 81 yards and a touchdown on five targets, while Hurns' six targets resulted in five catches for 74 yards.

• I compared C.J. Beathard to Blake Bortles recently, and Sunday brought the bad side of that comparison. Beathard has been a turnover machine to the extent that it might be time to wonder if he finishes the year as starter. In the last four games Beathard is guilty of 10 turnovers.

• On the bright side for San Francisco, they appear to have discovered another promising skill position player in Raheem Mostert. Mostert is something of a blank slate or a special teams player to most NFL observers, but his prospect background gives reason to think he's for real. He didn't do much at Purdue where he bounced between running back and receiver, but he's a standout track athlete with burning speed and a skill set that's evidently developing well now that he's focused on one position. Mostert has 146 yards (7.7 YPC) rushing and four catches for 19 yards in his last two games. Ball security is the primary concern with him.