This article is part of our Survivor series.
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Cardinals | 33.00% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 5.62 |
| PACKERS | 49ers | 30.80% | 425 | 80.95 | 5.87 |
| TEXANS | Bills | 23.00% | 365 | 78.49 | 4.95 |
| Rams | BRONCOS | 3.40% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.85 |
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 2.40% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.89 |
| Bears | DOLPHINS | 1.10% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.44 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 1.00% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.38 |
| Seahawks | RAIDERS | 0.90% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.37 |
| Jaguars | COWBOYS | 0.80% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.33 |
| JETS | Colts | 0.70% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.30 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a chalky week as the ownership numbers are split fairly evenly (and appropriately) between three teams, based on their chances to win.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are slightly less owned than the Vikings, and Vegas sees them as ever-so-slightly less likely to win. I like the Packers' home field advantage a little more, so I'll use them, but it's a coin flip between the two. I give the Packers an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings lost a home game to the Bills, so you can be sure they won't take anyone - not even the Cardinals - lightly this week. And Minnesota's defense showed up last week in Philly. I give the
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIKINGS | Cardinals | 33.00% | 487.5 | 82.98 | 5.62 |
| PACKERS | 49ers | 30.80% | 425 | 80.95 | 5.87 |
| TEXANS | Bills | 23.00% | 365 | 78.49 | 4.95 |
| Rams | BRONCOS | 3.40% | 300 | 75.00 | 0.85 |
| FALCONS | Buccaneers | 2.40% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.89 |
| Bears | DOLPHINS | 1.10% | 150 | 60.00 | 0.44 |
| Eagles | GIANTS | 1.00% | 160 | 61.54 | 0.38 |
| Seahawks | RAIDERS | 0.90% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.37 |
| Jaguars | COWBOYS | 0.80% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.33 |
| JETS | Colts | 0.70% | 135 | 57.45 | 0.30 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
This is a chalky week as the ownership numbers are split fairly evenly (and appropriately) between three teams, based on their chances to win.
My Picks
1. Green Bay Packers
The Packers are slightly less owned than the Vikings, and Vegas sees them as ever-so-slightly less likely to win. I like the Packers' home field advantage a little more, so I'll use them, but it's a coin flip between the two. I give the Packers an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings lost a home game to the Bills, so you can be sure they won't take anyone - not even the Cardinals - lightly this week. And Minnesota's defense showed up last week in Philly. I give the Vikings an 82 percent chance to win this game.
3. Houston Texans
The Bills are 2-3, but they're averaging a ghastly 3.6 yards per play and have no passing offense whatsoever. The Texans are average, but at home that should be good enough. I give the Texans a 79 percent chance to win this game.
4. Los Angeles Rams
This would be an odd spot to use the Rams, but they should handle the Case Keenum Broncos even in a difficult venue. I give the Rams a 77 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: None
