NFL Reactions: An All-Time Upset

On a day where Josh Allen led an impossible upset of the Vikings, Carson Wentz made his 2018 debut, and the Falcons and Saints engaged in an overtime shootout, the biggest story will likely be the presumed season-ending knee injury suffered by Jimmy Garoppolo. It's not confirmed, but immediately after the game coach Kyle Shanahan said the suspicion is that the franchise quarterback suffered an ACL tear. It's another bitter pill in a season where we've already been served plenty, and we're not even a month into it.

While the 2018 ambitions of the 49ers were wiped out Sunday, Bills fans faced what was supposed to be a day of suffering and instead emerged to an intense euphoria, not only because they managed to pull off the upset as 17-point road underdogs, but because Allen looked so good doing it. One game doesn't make a career, but winning 27-6 against one of the five best defenses in the league is the sort of thing bad quarterbacks generally don't pull off. Covering the spread would have been nice enough – winning seemed out of the question, especially with LeSean McCoy (ribs) sitting out. Written off as the doomed victim of a rebuilding year, Allen suddenly faces real expectations following Sunday's victory, in which he completed 15-of-22 passes for 196 yards and one touchdown while running for 39 yards and two more touchdowns.

•Allen and the Bills might dominate the headlines, but it was another rookie, Calvin Ridley of Atlanta, who mattered more to the fantasy football world. Following a two-target, zero-catch Week 1, it was reasonable to view Ridley's 64-yard, one-touchdown game from Week 2 with skepticism. Reasonable, but ultimately incorrect. Ridley needed only eight targets against the Saints to torch them for 146 yards and three touchdowns on seven catches, and with that we have a strong candidate to prove one of the league's game-changing fantasy assets of 2018. Ridley was on the mainstream radar everywhere, but only as a gamble pick in double-digit rounds. With four touchdowns in three games, he's already on the verge of returning a profit. Mohamed Sanu is Atlanta's WR3 now.

•With Mark Ingram set to return from suspension in Week 5, we have just one more week of this exclusively Kamara-Thomas offense in New Orleans. What a ride it's been. Considering the volume the Saints were able to maintain, it's simply incredible how high the usage shares have been for those two. Today was no different, as the duo handled 41 of the Saints' 66 touches from scrimmage, and 319 of their 539 yards from scrimmage. The Saints offense was a three-branched tree with Ingram, and instead of anyone inheriting his role during suspension, the third branch was simply removed.

•Clay Matthews, he gets a roughing the passer penalty. Have you seen this? Have you heard about this? It's really not good. The NFL has implemented so many arbitrary outcome mechanisms, in each case as a patchwork remedy for tensions caused by institutional contradictions that instead require broad reform, that it's basically like watching a pachinko machine at this point.

•I've heard a lot about Patrick Mahomes and how the God of Regression will eventually demand him as a sacrifice, but this was apparently not the week. The touchdown record is in jeopardy, don't overthink this one. This offense will be remembered like the 1999 Rams and the 18-0 Patriots.

•The 49ers offense will suffer in all respects as a result of the Garoppolo injury, but C.J. Beathard could be a real fantasy factor at quarterback following a generally promising rookie season. It's a gloomy mood around the team, but this is still a favorable offensive system with some skill position talent to work with. I'd sure as hell rather have Beathard than Mitch Zoolander or Case Keenum right now.

•Wendell Smallwood's strong effort Sunday was certainly frustrating for Corey Clement investors, but I doubt Smallwood is anyone worth chasing with FAAB or waiver claims unless Jay Ajayi (back) is declared out for a further absence. No matter the personnel availability, the Eagles offense appears determined to split up the rushing workload by design, and I think Smallwood was simply the next man on deck today.

•Aaron Jones ran well in his 2018 debut, producing 42 yards on six carries, but the Packers look locked into a committee approach as Jamaal Williams (29 yards on five carries) and Ty Montgomery (64 yards from scrimmage) also played well in Sunday's loss. It will be interesting to see if Randall Cobb's disastrous day results in Montgomery getting more of his work at receiver, however.

•Adrian Peterson only produces after you've written him off, that's the rules.

•The Dolphins were expected to lean on Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson as their slot receivers this year, but through three weeks it looks like it might be Jakeem Grant who emerges as the second pass catcher alongside Kenny Stills. I certainly didn't see that coming, but Grant is far more interesting than Amendola and Wilson as long as the opportunities keep coming for him. The jets and quickness are top-grade, and he's very developed as an open-field runner. You have to wonder if DeVante Parker is on the team in two weeks – there appears a somewhat permanent alienation between himself and Adam Gase.

•Blake Bortles is simply amazing for the range of outcomes he's capable of. You could historically bet on him saving his worst days for the road, but today he managed to completely lose his accuracy even while playing in a favorable setting at home. The Jaguars have generally done very well in games where Leonard Fournette was inactive, but perhaps those outcomes were just attributable to variance. This is no solace to Fournette owners like me – a two-week absence for a hamstring issue implies that it was a fairly significant injury, and we know from his ankle history that he's capable of making a chronic affair out of a leg ailment.

•Marcus Mariota clearly is not right, and it's unfortunate that his gutsy off-the-bench effort to lead Tennessee's 9-6 upset over Jacksonville might not parlay into any greater meaning. We're two weeks removed from an unspecified nerve injury in his elbow that causes ongoing difficulty gripping the ball, and it's doubtful that today's emergency showing following Blaine Gabbert's concussion will do anything to help the treatment of those symptoms. With Mariota's Week 1 injury, it's one of many early season cases where it's unavoidable to bitterly wonder what could have been.

•The Steve Wilks regime is not long for this league, and Josh Rosen can't save them. None of us is a Sam Bradford believer, but he's not nearly as bad as his production has been. The Cardinals in general are not nearly as bad as they've been. This particular scale of failure can't be attributed to the players. I'm a fan of Rosen as a prospect and would love to see him succeed just to stick it to the atavistic old guard in the NFL culture war, but I worry they'll break him if they make him play before Wilks is replaced. This team should be competitive, but look no further than David Johnson's third disappointing game in a row if you want to see what odds their coaching puts them up against.

•I never would have thought Christian McCaffrey would have it in him to hang 184 yards on the Bengals on 28 carries, but today's showing was extremely encouraging. He posted dominant fantasy production even despite a day off as a receiver, and you can of course expect him to bounce back in that regard. I faded Devin Funchess going into this year, but the Greg Olsen injury opens up a clear, sustainable opportunity for Funchess to regain the form he showed last year. As a former tight end, Funchess offers many of the same appeals as Olsen does as a pass catcher.

•I remain optimistic for the Bears' future under Matt Nagy, but Trubisky is just a nonstarter right now. The Bears offense from last year appeared to constrict to protect Trubisky given the team's garbage surrounding personnel, but he's shown exactly zero growth since that point, and in some ways seems worse. It's hard to keep the faith, because he's been put in position to succeed yet emphatically declined the offer to this point. The Bears picked him over Mahomes and Deshaun Watson. Bravo.

•The NFL would be in much better shape as a league if every coach were Sean McVay. The consistent brilliance with which the Rams are managed is a refreshing alternative to the arbitrary and nihilistic exercises that otherwise litter the schedule. It's refreshing for the mere fact that they have an enduring nature in a league where most other teams oscillate between competent and utterly hopeless from week to week.