This article is part of our NFL Reactions series.
Their franchise quarterback suspended following a 5-11 season, their first-round defensive tackle selection out with injury, their second-round running back selection a healthy scratch, their left tackle playing through a knee injury, and a starting corner out, the Buccaneers headed on the road to face one of the league's Super Bowl favorites. What could possibly go wrong?
Not much, apparently. Mike Evans, widely criticized as an overrated receiver in recent times, chopped up star corner Marshon Lattimore into tiny pieces, securing all seven targets for 147 yards and a touchdown. In this same matchup last year Evans got so frustrated with Lattimore's lockdown coverage that it provoked a late-hit tantrum from Evans, earning the receiver a suspension the following game. With the normally unbeatable Lattimore stumbling all game, the rest of the Saints defense went with him, and DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin got in on the feast for a combined 187 yards and three more touchdowns.
Every week in the NFL, and especially every Week 1 in the NFL, reminds us of how little we truly know. We can memorize outcomes, but the variables informing those outcomes are so layered and obscured that we can take very few if → then statements for granted. Ryan Fitzpatrick hanging 417 yards and four passing touchdowns (as well as a fifth rushing) on a Saints defense that allowed just 7.0 yards per pass last year, surrendering 22 passing touchdowns versus 20 interceptions. Did the Buccaneers get better? Did the Saints get
Their franchise quarterback suspended following a 5-11 season, their first-round defensive tackle selection out with injury, their second-round running back selection a healthy scratch, their left tackle playing through a knee injury, and a starting corner out, the Buccaneers headed on the road to face one of the league's Super Bowl favorites. What could possibly go wrong?
Not much, apparently. Mike Evans, widely criticized as an overrated receiver in recent times, chopped up star corner Marshon Lattimore into tiny pieces, securing all seven targets for 147 yards and a touchdown. In this same matchup last year Evans got so frustrated with Lattimore's lockdown coverage that it provoked a late-hit tantrum from Evans, earning the receiver a suspension the following game. With the normally unbeatable Lattimore stumbling all game, the rest of the Saints defense went with him, and DeSean Jackson and Chris Godwin got in on the feast for a combined 187 yards and three more touchdowns.
Every week in the NFL, and especially every Week 1 in the NFL, reminds us of how little we truly know. We can memorize outcomes, but the variables informing those outcomes are so layered and obscured that we can take very few if → then statements for granted. Ryan Fitzpatrick hanging 417 yards and four passing touchdowns (as well as a fifth rushing) on a Saints defense that allowed just 7.0 yards per pass last year, surrendering 22 passing touchdowns versus 20 interceptions. Did the Buccaneers get better? Did the Saints get worse? Is this simply a 1/100 outcome that occurred for nothing but variance? I'd bet the third, but that might just be me doubling down on disbelief.
To be fair, there were a few events that went according to plan. The Saints offense still works at least, James Conner thrived as starter for Pittsburgh, the Ravens defense feasted on the Buffalo offense, and Tom Brady covered at home. Keenan Allen and Melvin Gordon were good chalk, the Vikings offense is what we thought it was, and Saquon Barkley put down an impressive, winding 68-yard touchdown run to remind us why he's such a rare prospect.
Some odds and ends otherwise...
•Leonard Fournette left after just nine carries and three catches with a hamstring issue. At least it's not the ankle ... but still, that's discouraging. Dede Westbrook led Jags receivers with six targets, while Donte Moncrief saw five and Keelan Cole four. You would expect to see Westbrook and Cole swap those percentages.
• Pat Mahomes is good. Tyreek Hill is very good, also. I don't know any conceivable schematic approach to counter the stresses they pose to a defense. Sammy Watkins was a dud with three catches for 21 yards on five targets, and Travis Kelce somehow caught just one of his six targets. The latter two will have big games eventually. With bad secondary personnel in Kansas City, this team could be the most shootout-prone in the league.
• The Titans' offense was off to a promising start, but injuries to Marcus Mariota and Delanie Walker might have already tanked their season. Mariota injured his throwing hand and elbow when Miami end William Hayes hit him illegally (to no call), and Walker left late on a cart with his leg in a cast. Derrick Henry was the only runner to handle the ball initially, but after multiple weather delays Dion Lewis took over to greater success, finishing with 75 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries, adding five receptions for 35 yards, compared to 26 yards on 10 carries for Henry. The whole offense is dead if Mariota is out.
•Kenny Stills totaled 106 yards and two touchdowns on four receptions, but five targets out of 28 targets isn't a great target rate. Perhaps it will climb with better weather. Danny Amendola saw six targets, Albert Wilson four, and Jakeem Grant with seven. You would expect Stills and Amendola to pull away from the other two. Kenyan Drake saw 14 carries to Frank Gore's nine.
•Marquise Goodwin left early with a quadriceps injury for San Francisco, and it was George Kittle who functioned as the lead pass catcher in his place, seeing nine targets and catching five for 90 yards. Pierre Garcon and Trent Taylor each saw six targets. Alfred Morris lost a costly fumble and faded generally over the course of the game, leaving Matt Breida with a clear momentum advantage heading into Week 2.
•Dalvin Cook was active and effective as a receiver, catching six of seven targets for 55 yards, and his 16 carries otherwise is an encouraging number. The 40 resulting yards less so – the Vikings' offensive line is a weakness.
•Deshaun Watson really struggled with Will Fuller (hamstring) out, which left him with a suddenly barren group of supporting actors as Bill Belichick successfully sold out to stop DeAndre Hopkins once again. That Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue put up big rushing yardage tells you stopping the run was not on Belichick's list of concerns. Watson can do better against most defenses, but the formula from last year only works with Fuller.
• Gio Bernard saw one carry, Joe Mixon got 17. Mixon did nothing to dissuade Cincinnati from committing to that approach, producing 95 yards and a touchdown on the ground while snagging five of seven targets for 54 yards. Bernard almost has to get more work going forward, but if not, Mixon will yield a first-round return for fantasy owners. John Ross only saw two targets for Cincinnati.
• The Colts offense appears doomed to a completely horizontal passing game, as the Indianapolis pass catchers averaged just 8.2 yards per catch. Eric Ebron started fast and had more targets than Jack Doyle for the early part of the game, but by the end Doyle would have 10 targets to Ebron's five. Ebron still provided four catches for 51 yards and a score. Jordan Wilkins was ineffective at running back, and Nyheim Hines might push for more snaps after seeing nine targets.
•Chris Carson did a great job with his seven carries against Denver, producing 51 yards compared to eight yards for Rashaad Penny on the same carry count. I would expect Penny to gain ground here, but what else is new? The Will Dissly-based passing game is not sustainable for Seattle, so Doug Baldwin's MCL injury could be disastrous.
• Undrafted rookie Phillip Lindsay was one of the most surprising stories this week, running ahead of Devontae Booker and splitting carries evenly with Royce Freeman otherwise. Lindsay matched Freeman with 71 yards on 15 carries, and added two receptions for 31 yards and a touchdown on three targets. Lindsay is tiny and didn't provide the most efficient rushing production at Colorado, but this was an impressive showing. Emmanuel Sanders showed again why quick receivers are a problem for the grab-press coverage scheme the Seahawks run. Demaryius Thomas was not as efficient as Sanders, but 10 targets for Thomas means he should stay hot, especially when he faces some smaller corners.
• You will see few offenses as hopeless as Dallas' was against the Panthers, with Kawann Short overwhelming a line reeling from the loss of Travis Frederick. When Zeke doesn't go, there's no recourse. No speed, no hope.
•Cam Newton is awesome, but the Greg Olsen foot injury is a concern, and Christian McCaffrey looks the same as last year. Chris is right, McCaffrey is probably just Reggie Bush at best. Rookie D.J. Moore didn't see a single target, while Devin Funchess and Jarius Wright both saw five.
• Hopefully the Sam Bradford experiment ends soon. The Washington defense is not this good.
• The Washington offense probably isn't this good, either, but they were humming against the Cardinals. A Chris Thompson-Jordan Reed passing game seems unsustainable to me, but I figured the same thing going into this game. Jamison Crowder surprisingly saw only four targets from Alex Smith. Adrian Peterson was great, but he started hot when he got to Arizona last year, too. I'd worry about him running out of gas again, but he'll be a force as long as he keeps playing like today.
