Best Ball Strategy: Exploiting Dysfunction

I mentioned that last week's Best Ball Journal would be the last of this year, but I was measuring time incorrectly. That I'm posting this now is not meant to be a surprise gimmick, I'm just dumb. Sorry. Anyway, I think this will actually be the last one of the year.

MFL10 slow drafts are done, but live drafts are still available both there and on DRAFT.com. That includes the best ball tourney variations on DRAFT ($5, $25, and $125 variations), which presented a novel twist on the best ball industry this year, offering big winnings to a genre that previously only offered convenient volume on modest per-league winnings.

This article will consider some high-upside targets whose fortunes are inversely tied to those of more commonly coveted players, making them fade picks at the expense of the more valued teammate in question. If you make generally good picks your team should be competitive, but it might add the last bit of necessary wind to your sails if you set yourself up to capitalize in the event that your opponents' early-round buys fall to injury or poor production otherwise.

The most obvious way to do this is to get the handcuff backup of a stud runner, or at least a backup runner in an otherwise good offense. Sometimes there's nothing to extract when a first-round fantasy pick goes down with an injury – the minefield that was the Cardinals backfield last year comes to mind – but Alvin Kamara in the 12th round qualified as such a pick last year, and it turned out Adrian Peterson's trade was the only thing standing between Kamara and a first-round output. Juju Smith Schuster (Martavis Bryant), Kenyan Drake (Jay Ajayi), Jamaal Williams (Ty Montgomery), and Chris Thompson (Terrelle Pryor) were a few other examples from last year.

With that noted, here are picks I'm considering in the DRAFT best ball tourneys with boom-or-bust profiles, but ones worth speculating on in order to fade higher fantasy draft picks. I'll list them by descending ADP. The ADPs cited are from DRAFT. This list is not meant to be exhaustive, it's merely what came to the forefront of my bird brain.

Also to be clear: I'm not necessarily fading any of the named players in a vacuum. This is only regarding a tournament-specific framing for single lineups. As a general policy it would be insane to fade most of the players referenced. I am heavily fading Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde, though.

Tevin Coleman, RB, ATL (66.2)
Fading:Devonta Freeman (18.6)

Remember when Coleman won the starting job his rookie year, and it took an injury to get Freeman into the starting lineup? I've always been a Freeman advocate, but I still believe to this day that Coleman is the better player. If Freeman should miss time, Coleman could be a league-winning asset in the sixth round.

With concussion and knee issues flaring up last year, Freeman's durability is up to further question than it once was. Coleman would have more upside with Freeman's workload thanks to his superior big-play ability, including his rapid development as a pass catcher. It was a raw part of Coleman's skill set coming out of Indiana, but in the last two years he's turned 79 targets into 58 receptions for 720 yards and six touchdowns (73.4 percent catch rate, 9.1 YPT).

Rashaad Penny, RB, SEA (68.3)
Fading:Chris Carson (79.0)

Penny's ADP here is basically outdated – he's more likely to go in the ninth round than the sixth in most drafts by now. With that accounted for, I think he qualifies as the underdog between himself and Carson, even with loudmouths like me insisting Carson is nowhere near the runner Penny is.

But Penny's broken finger bought Carson some cushion going into Week 1, and so the rookie will need to cover ground to come through for his owners. People seem awfully high on Carson for a guy who has one (1) notable game as a pro, which occurred against a 49ers defense that sat on the field for 82 plays. It's a nice follow up to a senior season at Oklahoma State backing up a 180-pound true freshman, I suppose. I'd still rather have the guy with 4.46 speed who ran for 3,266 yards (7.7 YPC) and 34 touchdowns in his last 27 games.

Like Nick Chubb in a subsequent entry, Penny is one of the few players on this list who I think can hit their upside scenario without anyone getting hurt. Penny is just better than Carson. Sorry if this offends.

Kenny Golladay, WR, DET (118.5)
Fading:Golden Tate, Marvin Jones (54.1)

Golladay will make his share of big plays this year even if Golden Tate and Marvin Jones stay healthy, but if either one misses time I'll be projecting Golladay as a borderline WR1 that week. Golladay should have been a first-round pick in the 2017 draft. He's better than seventh overall pick Mike Williams at the very least. Following a rookie year where averaged 9.9 yards per target, Golladay is an obvious breakout candidate if he should see bigger usage.

If Golladay has a big year even with the other two healthy, I would probably credit the arrival of Matt Patricia for that outcome, because I suspect it would specifically be the result of the Lions upping their offensive tempo. Incumbent offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter has always been fond of the no-huddle offense, but his offenses would loaf at the line of scrimmage instead of snapping the ball. It wasted a lot of time. Patricia comes from the Belichick coaching tree, which has a consistent emphasis on tempo, in sharp contrast to JBC when left to himself.

Nick Chubb, RB, CLE (122.5)
Fading:Carlos Hyde

Carlos Hyde is substantially better than Chris Carson, so I consider Chubb's route more difficult than Penny's. But I still think Chubb can steal this starting role even if Hyde is healthy.

Hyde is unlikely to embarrass himself as a runner, though. He's strong and explosive, and his running style naturally lends itself to effectiveness out of the backfield. I still think Chubb is the better pure runner, but it will be difficult for him to distinguish himself in this particular regard either way. If Chubb does start stealing snaps from Hyde I suspect it might have something to do with hurry-up or otherwise pass-catching considerations. Hyde's career YPT of 4.2 is perplexingly bad, and I guarantee you Chubb can do better.

James Washington, WR, PIT (168.5)
Fading:Antonio Brown (5.8), Juju Smith-Schuster (40.8)

Washington's big preseason broke him into the mainstream fantasy football discourse, but it's his career at Oklahoma State, not the preseason, that should sell him to you. By averaging 12.8 yards per target on a 61.2 percent catch rate on his way to 1,549 yards and 13 touchdowns in 13 games last year, Washington produced at a rate that can't be explained by the Oklahoma State system alone. If he gets targets, he'll produce.

Of course, there will only be so many targets up for grabs if Antonio Brown and Juju Smith-Schuster are both healthy. Some optimists think the Pittsburgh offense could have room for three fantasy hits at receiver, but to me Washington would mostly be a way to speculate on the misfortune of one of the previously mentioned duo.

Austin Ekeler, RB, LAC (172.7)
Fading:Melvin Gordon (8.6)

Gordon has one of the biggest workload projections in the league, but he hasn't been the most durable runner in the NFL. He underwent microfracture surgery on his knee following his rookie year, and since then he's dealt with hip, shoulder, and foot issues at separate points.

If Gordon misses any time, Ekeler would be a great replacement, not a good one. He was highly impressive as a rookie last year, peeling off three carries of 20-plus yards on 47 attempts and turning 35 targets into 27 receptions for 279 yards, good for 77.1 percent catch rate and a YPT of 8.0. The rookie Justin Jackson won't be stealing any snaps from him.

Spencer Ware, RB, KC (185.4)
Fading:Kareem Hunt (10.8)

Hunt is an elite starting running back and it's an open and shut case. Ware will not be poaching touches from Hunt beyond a trivial or otherwise anomalous fashion.

But Ware showed real starting ability prior to last year's brutal knee injury, and if he's back to full health that gives him substantial upside in the event that Hunt misses time. That the Chiefs cut Charcandrick West last week would seemingly imply that Chiefs doctors are feeling good about Ware's knee. Hunt has been healthy the last two years, but in the three years prior to that he dealt with various leg injuries, most notably ankle issues but also quad and hamstring flare-ups at separate points.

James Conner, RB, PIT (189.9)
Fading:Le'Veon Bell (2.2)

I'm not a Conner buyer myself – I'm a Jaylen Samuels truther – but it makes some objective sense to speculate on Conner for his upside in the event of a Le'Veon Bell injury. Conner is unambiguously ahead of Samuels on the depth chart, and he has a year in the system after he was selected in the third round out of Pittsburgh last year. The hometown notoriety can't hurt him any.

Conner even showed some pass-catching upside in his last preseason appearance, catching six passes for 52 yards. Even as a general skeptic I wouldn't question Conner's pure running ability, so if he's shown growth as a pass catcher he could have legitimate three-down upside.

Vernon Davis, TE, WAS (200.4)
Fading:Jordan Reed (91.7)

Reed had bones removed from both of his feet this offseason, a development that's been spun as a positive. It strikes me as concerning. Even if effective, it's a drastic treatment measure, and it does nothing to alleviate the greatest concern of all with Reed: his concussion history. I'll probably never draft him again, because I wouldn't draft him until the 12th round and he rarely makes it out of the eighth.

If Reed misses time, Davis will produce in his place. Alex Smith will have use for the tight end given Washington's thin wide receiver rotation, and Davis can afford to age given that he entered the league with sub-4.4 speed. Davis has been quietly brilliant his two years in Washington, catching 68 percent of his targets for 9.6 yards per target. I'm convinced he's better than Reed generally, to be honest.

John Kelly, RB, LAR (206.5)
Fading:Todd Gurley (1.2)

Kelly was only a sixth-round pick, but in the event of a Gurley absence the rookie appears capable of laying claim to a workhorse role. Not that I care, but he's been productive this preseason, totaling 197 yards and two touchdowns (4.3 YPC) while adding six receptions for 18 yards.

Kelly showed plus pass-catching ability at Tennessee, and I consider him an easily better player than Malcolm Brown, the incumbent backup to Gurley. Brown held that distinction by default – he's well below replacement level, and I suspect his main value to the Rams is on special teams. Brown finished his college career at Texas with just 4.3 yards per carry, and while Kelly's Tennessee average of 4.8 isn't great, it's largely held down by the 189 carries he took in last year's imploding offense, when he finished with 4.1 yards per carry. You can find more insight toward Kelly's running skills by looking at his receiving production from last year, when he turned 47 targets into 37 receptions for 299 yards (78.7 percent catch rate, 6.4 YPT).

Chase Edmonds, RB, ARZ
Fading:David Johnson (3.4)

It would be incredibly bad luck if Johnson had more injury troubles after last year's infuriatingly arbitrary broken wrist in Week 1, but this world is nothing if not cruel.

If Johnson misses time, Edmonds would instantly become a top-24 fantasy back with room for more. He might not look like much at 5-foot-9, 205 pounds, and Fordham certainly didn't put him on the mainstream map, but the rookie fourth-round pick is a fine prospect. His 10.86 agility score helps him lose defenders in the open field, and he has standout pass-catching upside that could earn him targets even while Johnson is in the starting lineup.

Jaylen Samuels, RB/TE*, PIT (215.8)
Fading:Le'Veon Bell (2.2), James Conner (189.9)

*Samuels is listed at RB everywhere but DRAFT. But on DRAFT... he's listed as a tight end. It's a loophole that could hold significant repercussions

Samuels isn't guaranteed a roster spot as a fifth-round pick, but if he does make the team he could immediately establish himself as the backup passing-down back to Le'Veon Bell, and even as a pure runner Samuels can put some heat on James Conner. While Conner probably has the better skill set as a pure runner (5.6 YPC over 668 carries at Pittsburgh to Samuels' 6.1 YPC over 182 carries at North Carolina State), Samuels is the significantly better athlete of the two. Conner posted a 4.65-second 40 at 233 pounds to go with a 29-inch vertical and 113-inch broad jump, while at 225 pounds Samuels boasts a 4.54-second 40 along with a 34.5-inch vertical, 121-inch broad jump, and 11.21 agility score.

The gulf between Conner and Samuels as pass catchers is vast. Any advantage Conner has as a runner is modest or even negligible. Conner's knowledge of the Pittsburgh system is what keeps him ahead right now, in my opinion, and Samuels can only gain ground if that suspicion is correct. Moreover, there is a real chance that Samuels could earn occasional slot targets regardless of his status relative to Conner. I'm accumulating an alarmingly high number of Samuels shares on DRAFT.