Job Battles: Better Late Than Never

Whereas past entries of this article listed players from left to right in descending team seniority, this post will instead ostensibly list them in descending projected fantasy value.

Keelan Cole vs. Donte Moncrief vs. Dede Westbrook, WR, JAC

Marqise Lee's season-ending knee injury is lamentable, but for those still drafting the result is a clearer wideout rotation in Jacksonville. The presumed WR1 prior to injury, Lee's absence makes a previously crowded group much easier to discern.

I think this order is obvious: Cole is ahead of Moncrief, who joins him in the top two, and Westbrook is the third target. This isn't to say the three can't coexist to some extent – Lee, Cole, and Westbrook all took turns with big games last year – but I think it would take a (totally plausible) injury to Moncrief for Westbrook to really run free.

Cole heads into his second year in the system, and he does so following a successful rookie season where he averaged 9.0 yards per target – a fine start especially when you consider Blake Bortles has a career YPA of 6.7. With Allen Hurns and now Lee out of the picture, expect Cole to see a higher percentage of his snaps in the slot, which will likely shave a yard or two off his YPT due to lower depth of target, but that should come with the benefit of a higher catch rate after catching just 42 of 83 targets (50.6 percent) last year. Particularly given Moncrief's recent durability issues, you probably have to consider Cole the heavy favorite to lead the team in targets.

That's not to say Moncrief can't pose substantial upside himself, however. He'll need better injury luck after missing 11 games the last two years, but if his durability takes a turn for the better there could be real upside with him, especially at his low price. Moncrief stands at 6-foot-2, 221 pounds with 4.40 speed, a 39.5-inch vertical, and a 132-inch broad jump, and he just turned 25. Disappointing as he's been, his sputtering development isn't unusual for players as young as him, especially when dealing with injury for multiple years. Moncrief posted 979 yards and 10 touchdowns in 12 games for Mississippi at age 19, and by the time he turned 23 he had 1,177 yards and nine touchdowns to his credit in the NFL on 154 targets (7.6 YPT). Knowing of just his athletic metrics and those two age-adjusted production points, you would assume this was a top prospect.

The reason I consider Moncrief the favorite ahead of Westbrook is because Moncrief is easily the better prospect. The fact that Moncrief ran a 4.40 at the combine means he probably could match the 4.39 Westbrook ran at his pro day, and that Moncrief ran his at 221 pounds makes his athleticism far more impressive than Westbrook's time at 178. Then there's this: Moncrief, even in his fifth NFL season, is only about three months older than Westbrook.

Jerick McKinnon vs. Matt Breida vs. Alfred Morris, RB, SF

I was slightly joking when I initially suggested that Kyle Shanahan had planned to sign Morris all along this offseason, but the theory actually makes plenty of sense to me now. Shanahan knew Morris didn't need the training camp reps to learn the system, and the 49ers otherwise made no attempt to add anything resembling a power back this offseason.

If the 49ers go into this year with McKinnon, Breida, and some combination of Raheem Mostert and Jeremy McNichols at running back, it'd be a collection of third-down backs at an average of roughly 5-foot-9, 205 pounds. It would easily be the smallest runner rotation in the league, and perhaps the smallest in the league over a span of decades. Other than George Kittle, the 49ers otherwise have no pass catchers with the size to project as red-zone options. Given the absence of jump ball targets, just how would Shanahan plan to score touchdowns this year without a power option like Morris? McKinnon is not moving any piles.

If Shanahan never had Morris in mind, then why would he be drawn toward him now, contrasting as he is with literally every other running back Shanahan had previously targeted? If Morris specifically was not the plan, then why didn't the 49ers sign another 5-foot-9, 205ish-pound pass catcher running back when McKinnon and Breida dealt with injuries? It's an odd time for a change of philosophy, to say the least.

Morris still isn't a guarantee to make the roster, and even if he does you'd still probably have to rank him behind Breida, not to mention McKinnon, but if Morris sticks it would change the calculus in a way that McKinnon investors doubtlessly didn't anticipate. Even if only a peripheral piece, Morris' specialty function would disrupt goal-line and other short-yardage opportunities for McKinnon and Breida. By starting San Francisco's third preseason game and totaling 84 yards on 17 carries, Morris presumably helped his chances of making the team.

Sony Michel vs. Jeremy Hill, RB, NE

Rex Burkhead and James White are locked into their respective roles, both of which entail extensive pass-catching work, including slot receiver snaps in Burkhead's case. That would seem to leave some substantial remaining carry count to distribute, especially while Julian Edelman is suspended in the first four weeks.

Michel made things interesting Monday by returning to practice after sitting out since August 2 following a knee procedure. Michel should be physically ready to play in Week 1 so long as he avoids setbacks, but he missed almost all of training camp all the same. The question now is how quickly he can catch up in practice.

For a player with fumbling issues in college, it's possible that Michel had more to prove in practice than you would guess of a first-round pick. It's just as easily possible that the designated passing situation work of Burkhead and White leaves Michel with simplified remaining assignments, allowing him quick progress.

If Michel is healthy and isn't fumbling, you'd have to consider him the favorite to push aside Hill – the presumed remaining pure runner at Mike Gillislee's expense – and if he does so he could salvage RB2 value yet in Tom Brady's offense. Whether Michel can meet those two conditions is something that probably can't be foreseen right now. If he doesn't meet them both, then it's Hill who could ride the wave to a productive season, at least in the first half or so. Whatever the specific results, it's probably best to presume chaos with this backfield.

Cameron Meredith vs. Tre'Quan Smith, WR, NO

Here's one I wasn't expecting to write up, even as a long-time Smith optimist since his first season at UCF.

Meredith was highly productive with the Bears two years ago, even as a relatively recent wide receiver convert from quarterback who was catching passes from Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, and Matt Barkley. Meredith is an above average athlete, too, with a 4.49-second 40, 39-inch vertical, 127-inch broad jump, and 10.83 agility score at 6-foot-3, 207 pounds. When a guy with those tools produces 66 receptions for 888 yards and four touchdowns (9.2 YPT) with trash quarterbacks, you'd correctly identify him as one of the best receiver prospects in the league.

It appears that the ACL/MCL tear Meredith suffered during the 2017 preseason remains an issue for him, however, as he hasn't been able to gain traction in New Orleans to this point. Reporting at one point implied Meredith may have suffered damage beyond those two ligaments, and anxiety over the injury is the sole reason Chicago didn't assign Meredith a draft pick tender as a restricted free agent this offseason.

If Meredith is not himself, then Smith is good enough to capitalize. The rookie third-round pick out of UCF was highly productive in college, posting 2,748 yards and 22 touchdowns in 37 games. That included a 2017 season where he needed only 88 targets to total 59 receptions for 1,171 yards and 13 touchdowns (67.1 percent catch rate, 13.3 YPT). At 6-foot-2, 203 pounds, Smith is a more linear athlete (11.47 agility score) than Meredith, but with a 4.49-second 40, 37.5-inch vertical, and 130-inch broad jump – not to mention an 80 and 3/8-inch wingspan – Smith can pose an explosive threat downfield.

Although there wasn't room in the New Orleans offense for a fourth fantasy-relevant pass catcher last year behind Michael Thomas, Alvin Kamara, and Mark Ingram, last year also featured an uncharacteristically low pass attempt volume for the Saints offense. That was largely due to the unexpected emergence of the Saints pass defense as one of the league's best. If the Saints pass defense regresses or Drew Brees attempts more passes for whatever other reason, then there could be room for one of Meredith or Smith to emerge as at least a fringe fantasy option in mainstream leagues.

Sam Bradford vs. Josh Rosen, QB, ARZ

With Rosen hitting his hand on a helmet – it hurts worse than you probably think – Bradford was all but locked into the Week 1 starting lineup as the Cardinals take on Washington. Whether you presume this an enduring arrangement probably depends on your confidence in Bradford's knee, or perhaps your skepticism of Rosen.

As to the former, it's one thing to hope for the best and something different to be an injury optimist with the guy whose knee has already failed multiple times. One such failure occurred last year, when his knee flared up for no apparent reason and Vikings doctors couldn't see through scar tissue on an MRI to determine whether there was ligament damage. Perhaps the Cardinals have access to better MRI machines, I don't know. The Arizona offensive line otherwise projects to be among the league's worst. If healthy, though, Bradford is unlikely to just hand the spot over to the rookie, as the last time Bradford stayed upright he finished with 20 touchdowns and five interceptions while completing 71.6 percent of his passes.

On the other hand, if Bradford does miss time, don't expect Rosen to give the job back. Rosen deserved to be a top-five pick, or roughly 60 selections higher than seventh overall pick Josh Allen, and if not for the NFL establishment's petty, atavistic culture war Rosen very well might have been the first overall pick. He's an excellent quarterback prospect, and perhaps the most polished of this year's rookie quarterback class. His fantasy upside as a rookie figures to be muted even if he sees the field, however, as the Cardinals lack explosive pass-catching options, and new coach Steve Wilks might have a conservative streak in him after taking lessons from the '90s-minded Ron Rivera the past decade.