DraftKings NFL: Week 16 Value Plays

DraftKings NFL: Week 16 Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings NFL series.

Here are my favorite DraftKings tournament plays for Week 16, picking from the main slate that only includes games on Sunday. The focus here is on value more so than projected ownership, but it's still a nice bonus if a player doesn't figure to be a popular choice.

Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, DET (at CIN), $6,200 - On a slate without any plays I truly love at quarterback, Stafford offers a nice combo of talent, price and matchup, though he doesn't stand out as an obvious bargain. The Bengals have given up the ninth fewest DraftKings points to QBs on the season, but they surrendered at least 19 each of the past four weeks, despite facing DeShone Kizer and Mitchell Trubisky during that stretch. Even with Vontaze Burfict (concussion) returning to the fold, Cincinnati will have a tough time keeping Stafford under 20 DK points, particularly when considering that the Lions have the league's highest pass-to-rush ratio (1.91) in neutral game script situations (point margin of zero to six), per J.J. Zachariason of numberFire. Detroit also owns the fourth highest overall pass-to-run ratio, so Stafford should be reasonably busy even the Lions don't have to much trouble with their lesser feline brethren.

Other options: Cam Newton, CAR (vs. TB), $6,800; Alex Smith, KC (vs. MIA), $6,600; Philip Rivers, LAC (at NYJ), $6,400; Jameis Winston, TB (at CAR), $5,700; Jay Cutler, MIA (at KC), $4,800; Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (vs. CLE), $4,700

Running Back

Melvin Gordon, LAC (at NYJ), $7,200 - Gordon took advantage of Austin Ekeler's broken hand in last week's 30-13 loss to the Chiefs, catching six of eight targets for 91 yards while playing 82.8 percent of the snaps on offense — his highest snap share since Week 6 when Ekeler still didn't have much of a role. With the rookie likely limited to special teams if he's able to play this weekend, Gordon figures to add passing-down duties to his usual heavy workload on the ground. He proved perfectly capable in that regard with 28 catches over the first six weeks of the season, but he nonetheless slipped to back-end RB1 status while catching only 15 passes in seven games Weeks 7-14. The importance of the pass-catching work can't be overstated on a PPR site, as Gordon got more than half of his production through the air in each of his three games with 28 or more DK points this season.

Dion Lewis, NE (vs. BUF), $6,000 - Lewis has been consistent been unspectacular since Mike Gillislee disappeared from the picture, somehow averaging 14.6 DK points without reaching 19 in a single one of the six games. Rex Burkhead (knee) is largely to blame for the lack of a blow-up outing, as the former Bengal scored seven touchdowns (including two through the air) while averaging 8.2 carries and 3.5 during that same six-game stretch. Gillislee figures to re-enter the equation in some capacity during Burkhead's absence, but I'm betting that the Patriots will also ask Lewis to account for some of the missing snaps and touches. He took 15 carries for 92 yards in a 23-2 win over the Bills in Week 13, contributing to the recent trend of Buffalo giving up big games on the ground. Only the Giants have surrendered more rushing yards to running backs, and no team has allowed more fantasy points to the position.

Other options: Kareem Hunt, KC (vs. MIA), $8,400; Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (vs. SEA), $8,000; Christian McCaffrey, CAR (vs. TB), $6,400; DeMarco Murray, TEN (vs. LAR), $4,600; Duke Johnson, CLE (at CHI), $4,500; Jonathan Stewart, CAR (vs. TB), $3,700; Kapri Bibbs, WAS (vs. DEN), $3,500

Wide Receiver

Jarvis Landry, MIA (at KC), $6,300 - Landry unsurprisingly has been one of the more consistent PPR fantasy assets this season, scoring at least 8.3 points in every game and only once failing to reach double digits. While yet to reach 25 DK points in a single contest, he's fallen between 19.9 and 24.6 on six occasions, including the past two weeks. Landry ranks third in the league in total targets (143) and third in targets from inside the 10-yard line (12), with the latter mark suggesting there's huge upside to be had if he can crack the 100-yard bonus for the first time this year. With the Dolphins likely to be playing from behind against a Chiefs defense that lacks cornerback talent beyond Marcus Peters, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which Landry doesn't draw at least eight targets. His role in the slot will keep him away from Peters and allow him to take aim at Steven Nelson.

Rishard Matthews, TEN (vs. LAR), $5,100 - With the ascension of Corey Davis seemingly on delay until next season, Matthews stands unchallenged as the Titans' No. 1 receiver, coming off two outings with at least five catches for 95 yards and a touchdown in his past three games. The role makes him a bargain at this price, and while the matchup won't be easy this weekend, Matthews could get more volume than usual with the Titans listed as 6.5-point underdogs at home. As good as they've been at defending the pass, the Rams don't have a true shutdown cornerback to lock Matthews down.

Other options: Keenan Allen, LAC (at NYJ), $7,700; Michael Thomas, NO (vs. ATL), $7,600; Tyreek Hill, KC (vs. MIA), $6,500; Mike Evans, TB (at CAR), $6,400; Golden Tate, DET (at CIN), $6,200; Dez Bryant, DAL (vs. SEA), $6,000; Demaryius Thomas, DEN (at WAS), $5,500; Paul Richardson, SEA (at DAL), $4,300; Kenny Stills, MIA (at KC), $4,000; Kendall Wright, CHI (vs. CLE), $3,800; Brandon LaFell, CIN (vs. DET), $3,400; Kenny Golladay, DET (at CIN), $3,300

Tight End

Cameron Brate, TB (at CAR), $3,300 - Brate (hip/knee) has spent his 2017 campaign splitting snaps and targets with rookie first-round pick O.J. Howard, who was placed on injured reserve Tuesday with an ankle injury. Assuming he's able to play through his own minor ailments, Brate figures to draw at least a handful of targets as part of a Tampa Bay passing game that will look much like it did last year (DeSean Jackson is also out with an ankle injury). While he isn't normally thought of as a dominant force, Brate has been incredibly efficient throughout his career, producing a 68.3-percent catch rate and 8.4 yards per target, with 17 of his 123 receptions (13.8 percent) going for touchdowns. Each of those marks is elite for a non-Gronk tight end, comparing favorably to what Greg Olsen, Delanie Walker and Zach Ertz have done the past few years.

Other options: Rob Gronkowski, NE (vs. BUF), $7,400; Travis Kelce, KC (vs. MIA), $6,900; Evan Engram, NYG (at ARI), $5,600; Delanie Walker, TEN (vs. LAR), $4,900; Jimmy Graham, SEA (at DAL), $4,700; Vernon Davis, WAS (vs. DEN), $3,400; Antonio Gates, LAC (at NYJ), $2,500

D/ST

Kansas City Chiefs (vs. MIA), $3,300 - The Kansas City defense bounced back to life the past two weeks, piling up seven takeaways and five sacks while locking up the AFC West with blowout wins over the Raiders and Chargers. The official clincher will happen this Sunday when Jay Cutler heads to Arrowhead Stadium as a 10.5-point underdog, coming off a three-pick implosion in Buffalo last week. The Dolphins have nothing left to play for besides pride, something that doesn't seem to be a huge motivating factor for Adam Gase's squad.

Other options: Washington Redskins (vs. DEN), $3,400; Carolina Panthers (vs. TB), $3,100; Arizona Cardinals (vs. NYG), $3,000; New England Patriots (vs. BUF), $3,000; Dallas Cowboys (vs. SEA), $2,500

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jerry Donabedian plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: jd0505, DraftKings: jd0505.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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