This article is part of our Survivor series.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 20.90% | 525 | 84.00% | 3.34 |
| BENGALS | Bears | 19.00% | 260 | 72.22% | 5.28 |
| BILLS | Colts | 14.30% | 195 | 66.10%*** | 4.85 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 11.70% | 220 | 68.75% | 3.66 |
| Packers | BROWNS | 9.70% | 170 | 62.96% | 3.59 |
| CHARGERS | Redskins | 7.40% | 250 | 71.43% | 2.11 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 4.60% | 195 | 66.10% | 1.56 |
| STEELERS | Ravens | 2.70% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.79 |
| TEXANS | 49ers | 2.40% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.00 |
| Jets | BRONCOS | 1.60% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.76 |
| Titans | CARDINALS | 1.10% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.43 |
| Vikings | PANTHERS | 0.90% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.38 |
| BUCCANEERS | Lions | 0.50% | 91 | 47.64% | 0.26 |
| 49ers | TEXANS | 0.40% | 72 | 41.86% | 0.23 |
| BRONCOS | Jets | 0.40% | 91 | 47.64% | 0.21 |
| Lions | BUCCANEERS | 0.30% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.14 |
| BROWNS | Packers | 0.30% | 62 | 38.27% | 0.19 |
| RAMS | Eagles | 0.30% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.13 |
| Saints | FALCONS | 0.20% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.09 |
| JAGUARS | Seahawks | 0.20% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.09 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** No money line available, so odds created from four-point spread
This week is quite a bit tougher than last, especially because most people in season-long pools have already used the Patriots. That makes the Bengals, Bills, Cowboys, Chargers and Steelers the top choices, and because there's no heavily-owned team, you should be more focused on simply getting the win than figuring out the pot odds. Note:
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patriots | DOLPHINS | 20.90% | 525 | 84.00% | 3.34 |
| BENGALS | Bears | 19.00% | 260 | 72.22% | 5.28 |
| BILLS | Colts | 14.30% | 195 | 66.10%*** | 4.85 |
| Cowboys | GIANTS | 11.70% | 220 | 68.75% | 3.66 |
| Packers | BROWNS | 9.70% | 170 | 62.96% | 3.59 |
| CHARGERS | Redskins | 7.40% | 250 | 71.43% | 2.11 |
| CHIEFS | Raiders | 4.60% | 195 | 66.10% | 1.56 |
| STEELERS | Ravens | 2.70% | 240 | 70.59% | 0.79 |
| TEXANS | 49ers | 2.40% | 140 | 58.33% | 1.00 |
| Jets | BRONCOS | 1.60% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.76 |
| Titans | CARDINALS | 1.10% | 155 | 60.78% | 0.43 |
| Vikings | PANTHERS | 0.90% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.38 |
| BUCCANEERS | Lions | 0.50% | 91 | 47.64% | 0.26 |
| 49ers | TEXANS | 0.40% | 72 | 41.86% | 0.23 |
| BRONCOS | Jets | 0.40% | 91 | 47.64% | 0.21 |
| Lions | BUCCANEERS | 0.30% | 110 | 52.38% | 0.14 |
| BROWNS | Packers | 0.30% | 62 | 38.27% | 0.19 |
| RAMS | Eagles | 0.30% | 130 | 56.52% | 0.13 |
| Saints | FALCONS | 0.20% | 115 | 53.49% | 0.09 |
| JAGUARS | Seahawks | 0.20% | 135 | 57.45% | 0.09 |
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
*** No money line available, so odds created from four-point spread
This week is quite a bit tougher than last, especially because most people in season-long pools have already used the Patriots. That makes the Bengals, Bills, Cowboys, Chargers and Steelers the top choices, and because there's no heavily-owned team, you should be more focused on simply getting the win than figuring out the pot odds. Note: The Bills' chances would improve significantly if we knew for sure Tyrod Taylor would be able to play.
My Picks
1. New England Patriots
You probably don't have them available, but if you do, use them. They're only 84 percent per Vegas on the road and without Rob Gronkowski, but that's far better than any of the other choices. I give them an 82 percent chance to win this game.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
I don't love the Bengals, but the Bears can't move the ball through the air, and the Bengals have some balance on offense and a decent defense. I give Cincinnati a 72 percent chance to win this game.
3. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are on a nice run, but Washington is no doormat, and Los Angeles has a habit of choking away close games. That said, the Chargers' defense is much better, and they're playing at home. I give them a 71 percent chance to win this game.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers are tougher at home, and the Ravens are missing their top cover corner, Jimmy Smith. But this is a nasty rivalry game, the Ravens' defense is playing well, and Joe Flacco actually had a credible performance last week. I give the Steelers a 69 percent chance to win this game.
5. Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys should push the Giants around, but this is a road game, and the Giants could get a dead-cat bounce of sorts from getting rid of Ben McAdoo and restoring Eli Manning to the starting job. I give the Cowboys a 67 percent chance of winning this game.
6. Buffalo Bills
I'd put them second behind only the Patriots if I knew Taylor were playing, and I'd move them down further, into "Notable Omission" territory, if I knew he were scratched. With Taylor, I give the Bills a 77 percent chance to win this game. Without him, I give them a 63 percent chance.
Notable Omissions:
Kansas City Chiefs - I don't trust their defense against a Raiders team that isn't a doormat.
Houston Texans - Jimmy Garoppolo looks like he might be the real deal. If so, I don't want the Tom Savage side of that duel.
