Football Draft Kit: Players on the Move

The big-name skill-position players who changed teams this offseason have mostly demonstrated flashes of upside without real consistency, which is probably why none truly broke the bank in free agency. Fortunately, fantasy value and real football value don't always correlate, and many on this list have the potential for increased fantasy production compared to what they did last season.

An increase in playing time provides the most obvious path to a boost in fantasy value, but there are also established starters who could take advantage of their new locale due to increased target share, more looks near the goal line or just generally finding a better fit in a new offensive scheme.

In recent seasons, few quarterbacks or tight ends have parlayed a team change into noteworthy fantasy production, but quite a few running backs and wideouts reached new heights or regained their temporarily misplaced form.

As is always the case, any player changing teams can be assumed to come with major questions, as the true "sure things" in the league are almost always signed to mega deals with the teams that drafted them before they can hit free agency. While that doesn't mean there aren't some high-end talents changing teams, it does mean those players typically carry concerns regarding some combination of age, injury history and work ethic.

Often the free-agent additions that ultimately outproduce their draft spot in fantasy leagues aren't the most talented nor the highest paid, but rather those who join teams badly in need of someone to take on targets and/or carries.

DeMarco Murray, Rishard Matthews and Mike Wallace fit the bill last offseason, acquired at modest prices by a pair of teams (Tennessee and Baltimore) desperately in need of offensive playmakers. Pierre Garcon, Terrelle Pryor, Danny Woodhead and Robert Woods appear to be in similar situations this year, joining teams without many returning players to account for targets and touches.

QUARTERBACK

Mike Glennon, Bears
Three Years, $45 Million

After signing for a guaranteed $18.5 million, Glennon looked to be the Bears' unquestioned starter. But then, in a surprise move, Chicago traded up to draft Mitchell Trubisky second overall. Glennon is still expected to start, but the leash is surely shorter. Glennon was a serviceable QB in 2013 and 2014, completing nearly 59 percent of his passes with 29 touchdowns to 15 interceptions for a Buccaneers team that wasn't exactly brimming with talent. He'll benefit from a strong rushing attack, though the receiving corps is less certain. Alshon Jeffery departed for Philadelphia, leaving Cameron Meredith the top wideout. Kevin White is returning from injury, again, as is tight end Zach Miller. Free-agent adds Markus Wheaton and Kendall Wright and the promising Josh Bellamy likely won't be enough to make Glennon useful outside two-QB leagues.

Brian Hoyer, 49ers
Two Years, $12 Million

Hoyer signed with the 49ers hoping to recreate the connection he had with coach Kyle Shanahan when both were in Cleveland in 2014. Hoyer threw for a career-high 3,326 yards that year with 7.6 YPA (9th in the NFL). The downside, though, was 12 touchdowns to 13 interceptions in 14 games. He improved that ratio to 25:7 in 17 games the last two years in Chicago and Houston. San Francisco upgraded its defense through free agency and the draft, but it still has a long way to go to emerge from the league's cellar, which should provide Hoyer game scripts that force him to air it out. The bad news is Pierre Garcon is the team's best receiving option. Don't expect Shanahan to turn Hoyer into anything that resembles what the coach left in Atlanta with Matt Ryan.

Josh McCown, Jets
One Year, $6 Million

The Jets' decision to sign the 38-year-old McCown – as opposed to Jay Cutler or another not-quite-so-old veteran – made it clear the team wants nothing more than a one-year bridge to its quarterback of the future. That player would ideally be 2016 second-round pick Christian Hackenberg or 2015 fourth-rounder Bryce Petty, both of whom will be given the chance to compete with McCown for the Week 1 job. More likely than not, McCown will open the season under center for a talent-deficient squad, before eventually giving way to one of the youngsters. There isn't much upside to be had in this offense, and it seems likely the Jets will end up looking to the 2018 draft for their real franchise quarterback. McCown has struggled to stay healthy in the latter part of his career, but he's mostly looked competent when on the field.

RUNNING BACK

Latavius Murray, Vikings
Three Years, $15 Million

Murray's fantasy value took a hit after signing with the Vikings. First, he had bone spurs removed from his right ankle, making it uncertain if he will be ready for training camp. Second, Minnesota's offensive line is not nearly as talented as the one he ran behind in Oakland where he scored 12 rushing touchdowns last year. While the Vikings upgraded a line that was a shambles in 2016, it's likely still no more than adequate. Third, and most important, the team used a second-round pick on Dalvin Cook, who figures to immediately challenge for the lead role. Cook might not be able to match Murray's experience or steady pass-blocking ability, but the rookie has far more potential as a pure runner.

Marshawn Lynch, Raiders
Acquired Via Trade

Lynch's retirement only lasted one season, with the 31-year-old enticed by the prospect of playing for his hometown Raiders. It took a while to work out the details, with the Raiders ultimately sending minor draft compensation to Seattle, which still held the contract rights to its former star. Lynch then agreed to a reduced contract after a year away from the game on the heels of an injury-marred 2015 season. He managed only 111 carries for 417 yards (3.8 per carry) over seven games in his final season with Seattle, ending a four-year streak with at least 280 carries, 1,200 rushing yards, 4.2 yards per carry and 12 touchdowns. Even if he isn't the Lynch of old, the situation in Oakland is so favorable that he could regain his spot among the top-10 fantasy producers at his position. With Latavius Murray bolting for Minnesota, Oakland has a playoff-caliber roster featuring a strong passing game and elite offensive line but no established running backs.

Adrian Peterson, Saints
Two Years, $7 Million

As expected, the Vikings declined to pick up the 32-year-old Peterson's
$18 million option for this season. He settled for a modest contract with New Orleans shortly before the draft, surprisingly opting to join a team that already has an early down bruiser in Mark Ingram. While the situation isn't ideal in terms of expected volume, Peterson could benefit from playing alongside Drew Brees, whose presence typically ensures the New Orleans backfield ample goal-line opportunities, in addition to helping with per-carry efficiency. Ingram played 16 games last season and figures to stay heavily involved, but he did miss at least three games each of the previous three years. Last year's No. 2 running back, Tim Hightower, got 133 carries and 26 targets. Hightower is gone, but the team drafted pass-catching back Alvin Kamara in the third round. Peterson's 2014 campaign was wiped out by off-field issues and his 2016 season was essentially lost to injury, but he looked like his usual self as recently as 2015 when he took 327 carries for 1,485 yards (4.5 YPC) and 11 touchdowns to lead Minnesota to a division title.

Danny Woodhead, Ravens
Three Years, $8.8 Million

It was perhaps a little surprising the Ravens signed a 33-year-old running back coming off ACL surgery, but Kenneth Dixon is suspended the first four games and Terrance West isn't skilled as a receiver. Plus, Woodhead suffered the injury in Week 2 last year, which should give him enough time to return for the start of this season. Woodhead will be the pass-catching back but likely won't get more than a handful of carries per game. That should be enough, though, to provide fantasy value in PPR leagues as he gives Joe Flacco a sure-handed target on a team with only one player who had at least 35 receptions last year (Mike Wallace). Despite averaging only 6.1 carries a game and 3.4 yards per rush in 2015, Woodhead produced 15.2 fantasy points per game in PPR formats thanks to his 80 catches for 755 yards and six touchdowns.

Eddie Lacy, Seahawks
One Year, $4.25 Million

The Seahawks signed Lacy looking for more dependability from their backfield after Thomas Rawls and C.J. Prosise proved injury prone last season. Lacy is coming off an injury as well, but his surgically repaired left ankle is expected to be healthy for training camp. Of greater importance perhaps is Lacy's weight. He reportedly weighed 267 when he visited the Seahawks in March but made his target weight (255) at his first weigh-in in May. He's supposed to weigh 250 from June through August and then 245 for the regular season. After rushing for 1,178 yards as a rookie in 2013, Lacy's production declined each subsequent season, though last year he averaged 5.1 YPC before his year ended after five games. This year he'll be the primary ball carrier, with Prosise serving as the third-down back. Lacy could fall into a timeshare with Rawls – health the pivotal factor for each – behind an offensive line that's significantly worse than the one he had in Green Bay. The Seahawks are optimistic, but they also protected themselves with a low-risk deal.

Rex Burkhead, Patriots
One Year, $3.15 Million

Burkhead got few opportunities in Cincinnati with only 87 rushes in four years, but he took advantage of his only start – in Week 17 last season – to total 119 yards and two touchdowns on 25 carries in a head-turning performance that apparently caught the eye of the Patriots. His role, though, is unclear with holdovers Dion Lewis and James White and free-agent addition Mike Gillislee also in the backfield. Burkhead's a capable receiver, but there seems to be a logjam of pass-catching running backs, and Gillislee is more likely to handle early down work between the tackles.

Mike Gillislee, Patriots
Two Years, $6.4 Million

A 2013 fifth-round pick who largely went unnoticed prior to breaking out for a 101-577-8 rushing line last season as LeSean McCoy's backup, Gillislee seemed destined to spend at least one more year in Buffalo. But the Patriots surprisingly swooped in, surrendering a fifth-round pick to add Gillislee to a backfield that already includes James White, Dion Lewis and the aforementioned Burkhead. While only one piece of a committee, Gillislee is the favorite to replace LeGarrette Blount as the team's late-game clock killer and goal-line/short-yardage runner. Blount parlayed the role into 299 rushes for 1,161 yards and 18 TDs last year, despite producing a modest 3.9 YPC. The job doesn't figure to come with as much volume nor as many scoring chances this season, but Gillislee should find his way north of 4.0 yards per carry while potentially earning a role that isn't too much different from Blount's.

LeGarrette Blount, Eagles
One Year, $1.25 Million

Blount might have led the league in rushing TDs (18) last season, but it shouldn't come as a surprise the Patriots had minimal interest in retaining a one-dimensional 30-year-old who produced 3.9 yards per carry. His former team moved aggressively to sign Burkhead and Gillislee, while Blount had to wait until mid-May just to get a contract that's much smaller than what his replacements in New England signed. Blount does have incentives that can push his earnings as high as $2.8 million, and he should actually have a shot to hit some of those as the power component of an otherwise undersized backfield. Darren Sproles and 170-pound rookie Donnel Pumphrey don't present competition between the tackles, but 2016 fifth-round selection Wendell Smallwood might be a threat. Blount at least figures to serve as the goal-line and short-yardage specialist, in addition to being the favorite for early down carries.

Jamaal Charles, Broncos
One Year, $1 Million

Unable to bounce back from a second ACL tear, Charles watched another season go down the drain because of injuries, with complications from the major surgery leading to additional pain. He ultimately needed arthroscopic surgery on both knees, landing on injured reserve in December after only 12 carries in three games. An elite talent as recently as 2015, the 30-year-old had to settle for a one-year, incentive-laden deal that won't necessarily assure him of a spot on Denver's Week 1 roster. If he gets back to full strength, or close to it, Charles could carve out a share of work in what figures to be a split backfield, joining last season's disappointing duo of C.J. Anderson and Devontae Booker. The Broncos are hoping for the best but not counting on much. Charles should be healthy, if not necessarily explosive, for training camp.

WIDE RECEIVER

Alshon Jeffery, Eagles
One Year, $9.5 Million

Injuries, suspension and poor quarterback play made Jeffery's last two years in Chicago less than what fantasy owners hoped. Now he heads to Philadelphia motivated to turn a one-year deal into a multi-year contract in 2018. He'll step in as the top outside receiver for second-year quarterback Carson Wentz, who, though still developing, should be a major upgrade from what Jeffery had last season in Jay Cutler. Jeffery should lead the team in targets, and at 6-foot-3, will again be used in the red zone. But he needs to avoid the nagging injuries – he had groin, hamstring, knee, calf and ankle problems the last few years – to have any shot at regaining his spot among the top 20 at his position.

DeSean Jackson, Buccaneers
Three Years, $33.5 Million

Jackson brings game-changing speed to the Bucs, but his fantasy value likely won't move much. He's always lived on long gains, which has made him a classic boom-or-bust player. Most of his career he's played with good quarterbacks, and that trend will continue as he'll catch bombs from Jameis Winston this year, looking to extend a three-year streak producing at least 17.6 yards per reception. With Mike Evans across the field, Jackson should see plenty of single coverage and will help the Tampa Bay offense become more versatile, but his reliance on big plays and distance scoring likely will continue to make him a volatile week-to-week fantasy option.

Pierre Garcon, 49ers
Five Years, $47.5 Million

Garcon goes from being an inconsistent part of a strong receiving corps in Washington to being the top target for new QB Brian Hoyer on the 49ers. He's coming off his first 1,000-yard season since 2013, and while he'll turn 31 during camp and isn't the deep threat he once was, he's repeatedly proven to be an excellent route runner, which should ensure plenty of targets. The 49ers likely will be forced to throw often, and Garcon doesn't have much competition for targets. He should come cheap on draft day as fantasy owners avoid Hoyer and the rest of the offense, even though Kyle Shanahan is now calling plays.

Brandon Marshall, Giants
Two Years, $11 Million

Marshall bookended his career year in 2015 with campaigns of less than 800 yards, scoring just three times last season on a 10-year-low 59 receptions. At 33 and having had a number of lower-body injuries throughout his career, it's unclear just how much he has left. Marshall should benefit from playing alongside Odell Beckham Jr., but the flipside is he'll have heavy competition for targets in an offense that also features second-year wideout Sterling Shepard and rookie tight end Evan Engram. Additionally, Eli Manning is on the downside of his career. Marshall might end up as a better real-life player than fantasy option.

Torrey Smith, Eagles
Three Years, $15 Milliom

After a pair of lost years in San Francisco, Smith at least figures to play for a competitive team in Philadelphia. His ability to stretch the field with elite speed – he averaged at least 17.4 yards per reception three of the last five years, including a league-leading 20.1 in 2015 –  gives the Eagles the deep threat they lacked last season. Philadelphia also signed Alshon Jeffery to join Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz, which could make consistent targets hard to come by. With only $500,000 of the contract guaranteed, Smith essentially signed a one-year, $5 million deal with a pair of $5 million team options.

Terrelle Pryor, Redskins
One Year, $8 Million

Pryor blew away even the most optimistic projections in his first year as a full-time wideout, posting 1,007 receiving yards despite dealing with bad quarterbacks in Cleveland. He didn't get the big payday he sought, though, settling for a one-year deal from the Redskins, who lost both DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon. Pryor will provide a solid deep and intermediate threat as a boundary receiver, but he'll have a tough time matching last season's 140 targets on a team that also has wideouts Jamison Crowder and Josh Doctson and tight ends Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis. With Kirk Cousins under center, Pryor will at least have a quality quarterback capable of taking advantage of his skill set.

Brandin Cooks, Patriots
Acquired Via Trade

The Saints never seemed to maximize Cooks' downfield ability in his three years in New Orleans, partly thanks to an offense that spread the ball around and often targeted the seam when looking deep. Perhaps that played into the Saints' decision to send Cooks and a fourth-round pick to the Patriots for first- and third-round picks. Like the Saints, though, the Patriots heavily involve running backs and tight ends in the passing game, which could keep Cooks' targets similar to what he had in New Orleans (117, T-28th). Still, expect Tom Brady to capitalize on his best downfield threat since Randy Moss, even though his passing game is a quick-strike precision attack. As long as Rob Gronkowski is healthy, Cooks should see plenty of single coverage to make the most of his elite speed.

Kenny Britt, Browns
Four Years, $32.5 Million

After Britt posted 18.5 yards per catch and nine touchdowns in 12 games in his second NFL season (2010), fantasy owners spent a few years chasing production that never came, largely due to a combination of off-field issues and injuries. The last three years, though, Britt missed just one game, and in 2016, when he was almost completely off the fantasy radar, he turned in his first career 1,000-yard season despite playing in a passing attack reminiscent of 1930s football with the Rams. While his quarterback situation hasn't improved much, if at all, Britt has little competition for targets outside of second-year wideout Corey Coleman. Pryor, who left for Washington, drew 140 targets last season.  

Ted Ginn, Saints
Three Years, $11 Million

Ginn did perhaps better than expected as Cam Newton's primary deep threat the last two seasons in Carolina, and he's now on the move to catch passes from Drew Brees in New Orleans. As great as the upgrade in passing game sounds, the Saints got speedster Brandin Cooks to 15 yards per reception once in three years, so it's unlikely they will take full advantage of Ginn's ability to blow by defenders, in part because Brees tends to spread out deep targets. Ginn will play outside opposite Michael Thomas, with Willie Snead in the slot, but even if he gets more targets than the 95 he had last year, Ginn likely will be dependent on big plays and distance scoring.

Robert Woods, Rams
Five Years, $34 Million

Woods had moments in Buffalo when he showed his potential, but it was mostly an unproductive four seasons. Now he will go from one quarterback-challenged team to another, with Jared Goff coming off an ugly rookie campaign. Woods should take on most of the 111 targets Kenny Britt drew last season, as Tavon Austin is the team's only other veteran receiver with any background of productivity. Plus, the Rams likely will play from behind much of the season and be forced to pass more than they want to. If the passing game can somehow improve under the new coaching staff, Woods could emerge as a useful PPR weapon. His contract isn't nearly as strong as the reported figures suggest, as only $10 million of the $34 million is guaranteed, and the Rams can release him after 2018 without any cap repercussions.

TIGHT END

Martellus Bennett, Packers
Three Years, $21 Million

Bennett scored a career-high seven touchdowns last season on his way to a Super Bowl ring, and he now goes to another championship-caliber team that routinely involves tight ends in the passing game. With Jared Cook gone, Bennett will be Aaron Rodgers' top TE target, which should lead to plenty of goal-line looks. While Richard Rodgers and free-agent addition Lance Kendricks are also on the roster, neither presents the threat that Bennett dealt with last year in Rob Gronkowski. Bennett is one of the league's better two-way tight ends, and he's as tough as they come – he played 16 games four of the last five seasons.

Jared Cook, Raiders
Two Years, $10.6 Million

Toward the end of last season and into the playoffs, Cook looked like he was finally in a situation in Green Bay to capitalize on his ability. But contract negotiations broke down this offseason, and he ended up in another solid offense with the Raiders. Considering his size and speed, Cook's production has never really matched his potential, but he's been a victim of poor quarterback play most of his career. That won't be an issue in Oakland with Derek Carr, as he likely will have little competition for targets other than from Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and should get his share of red-zone opportunities, as well.

Dwayne Allen, Patriots
acquired via trade

Allen was never a consistent fantasy factor in Indianapolis, where he shared the position with Coby Fleener for years and was valued mostly for his blocking. And even when he had the job to himself last year he still didn't do much for fantasy owners, with the exception of one three-score game. That might not change in New England, even though the Patriots like to use formations with two tight ends. Rob Gronkowski is an injury risk, though, and if he goes down again, perhaps Allen can carve out a consistent role as a receiver.

This article appears in the 2017 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.