This article is part of our NFL Draft series.
With the 2017 draft now in the rear-view mirror, this becomes the portion of the fantasy football offseason when many fantasy draft boards will be constructed at the preliminary level. Certainly many of the rookies will have an integral part in their new offenses, but we'll look at some of the potential fallout for a number of veterans who could see a change in their potential fantasy value.
QUARTERBACK
Positive impact
Marcus Mariota, Titans
The Titans didn't have many receiving threats in 2016. The main result was that defenses could play close to the line of scrimmage, forcing Marcus Mariota into plenty of poor passing situations. By adding wide receiver Corey Davis with their first-round pick, the Titans gave Mariota a potentially dynamic receiving weapon who could evolve into his go-to target. The team also drafted wide receiver Taywan Taylor in the third round, providing versatility and depth. If the rookies develop, not only will Mariota's floor be safer this season, but he will have more upside too with finally some reliable wide receiver options other than Rishard Matthews.
Philip Rivers, Chargers
Promising as the Chargers' receiving corps might look in preseason, injuries forced Rivers to play with a number of backups the last couple seasons. The addition of seventh overall pick Mike Williams (6-foot-4, 218) not only gives Rivers a physical presence who significantly increases the talent at receiver, it adds much-needed depth. The Chargers addressed another area of need by drafting three offensive lineman, including second-round
With the 2017 draft now in the rear-view mirror, this becomes the portion of the fantasy football offseason when many fantasy draft boards will be constructed at the preliminary level. Certainly many of the rookies will have an integral part in their new offenses, but we'll look at some of the potential fallout for a number of veterans who could see a change in their potential fantasy value.
QUARTERBACK
Positive impact
Marcus Mariota, Titans
The Titans didn't have many receiving threats in 2016. The main result was that defenses could play close to the line of scrimmage, forcing Marcus Mariota into plenty of poor passing situations. By adding wide receiver Corey Davis with their first-round pick, the Titans gave Mariota a potentially dynamic receiving weapon who could evolve into his go-to target. The team also drafted wide receiver Taywan Taylor in the third round, providing versatility and depth. If the rookies develop, not only will Mariota's floor be safer this season, but he will have more upside too with finally some reliable wide receiver options other than Rishard Matthews.
Philip Rivers, Chargers
Promising as the Chargers' receiving corps might look in preseason, injuries forced Rivers to play with a number of backups the last couple seasons. The addition of seventh overall pick Mike Williams (6-foot-4, 218) not only gives Rivers a physical presence who significantly increases the talent at receiver, it adds much-needed depth. The Chargers addressed another area of need by drafting three offensive lineman, including second-round pick Forrest Lamp. Considering the returning playmakers at the skill positions and the free-agent addition of offensive tackle Russell Okung, this is shaping up to be one of the best groups of offensive talent surrounding Rivers in years.
Cam Newton, Panthers
The Panthers drafted running back Christian McCaffrey and RB/WR Curtis Samuel, both of whom have the potential to be dynamic players, something the offense desperately needed. Carolina's leading receiver four years running was tight end Greg Olsen, and running back Jonathan Stewart is 30 this year. Newton's fantasy value could improve just from throwing short passes to his new targets and letting them create big plays after the catch. It might not be a huge boost to his value, but it's likely his weekly floor will be higher, making him safer than he was last year.
Jared Goff, Rams
The Rams added a pair of receiving weapons in tight end Gerald Everett (second round) and wide receiver Cooper Kupp (third round) to help the developing Goff. The team's wide receiver group is average at best, but perhaps that will allow one or two of the younger options to break out. With a new coaching staff and addition of talent, Goff could be a low-risk option in two-quarterback leagues, quickly cut if the Rams' passing game is anemic as it was in 2016.
Negative Impact
Mike Glennon, Bears
Glennon, who joined the Bears as a free agent in March, is still expected to start, but it might not be for long after the team traded up in the draft to nab Mitch Trubisky second overall. The plan is to allow Trubisky time to develop, but it will surprise no one if the rookie finds his way onto the field at some point this season, especially with Chicago unlikely to compete for a playoff spot. Fantasy owners looking for a second quarterback can probably find more stable options in drafts or on the waiver wire.
Alex Smith, Chiefs
Smith is the unquestioned starter in Kansas City, but Patrick Mahomes, for whom the Chiefs gave up three picks to move up and draft 10th overall, is the quarterback of the future, at least if all goes according to plan. That might be a big if, but coach Andy Reid, who helped develop Brett Favre in Green Bay, loves the gunslinger out of Texas Tech. Barring an injury, in which case Smith might never get the job back, Mahomes likely won't be considered for the role until next season at the earliest. But Smith's fantasy value as a game manager (15 touchdowns last year) wasn't high to begin with, and now he has Mahomes looking over his shoulder.
Cody Kessler, Browns
In fantasy leagues that rarely have quarterbacks on the waiver wire during the season, every quarterback situation becomes critical. So even though Kessler is far from being a hot commodity, his grip on the starting job in Cleveland became much more tenuous with the addition of DeShone Kizer, a second-round pick who will compete for the starting job. Although Kizer might end up being a bit of a project, it's not as if Kessler is exactly an accomplished quarterback, so even if Kessler begins the season as starter, that could be subject to change at any time.
Blake Bortles, Jaguars
After regressing in 2016, Bortles might find himself in more of a game-manager role this year as the team drafted running back Leonard Fournette in the first round. With an emerging defense, and now the threat of a power running attack, this could become a run-first offense that plays it close to the vest. That could give Bortles fewer games to feast on garbage-time production, which often accounted for his big fantasy weeks. The expected change in offensive philosophy and an improved defense that doesn't give up as many points will make it difficult to draft him as anything more than a mid-range QB2.
RUNNING BACK
Positive impact
DeMarco Murray, Titans
Although Murray had an amazing first half last season, the lack of offensive firepower at wide receiver allowed defenses to stack the box and slow the team's rushing attack as the season progressed. After the team spent its first-round pick to add a potentially dynamic playmaker in wide receiver Corey Davis, opposing defenses will need to show more respect to the Titans passing attack, which in turn, should create much better rushing lanes for Murray to take advantage of. Although Derrick Henry will continue to have a backfield role, Murray's still the lead runner. Murray's slow finish last season could make him a draft-day value.
Negative Impact
Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, Bengals
After rushing for fewer than 3.9 yards per carry in each of the last two seasons, it was a no-brainer the Bengals would add a running back in this year's draft. The addition of Joe Mixon likely will relegate Hill to a part-time role. Hill's biggest fantasy contribution was his ability to score touchdowns, as he scored 30 the last three seasons, but it would be a surprise if Mixon didn't also see work around the goal line, further diminishing Hill's value. In addition to Mixon, Bernard will face competition for touches from first-round pick John Ross. The speedy wide receiver could see plenty of short passes designed to use his big-play ability to create explosive plays, limiting Bernard's targets. Hill and Bernard look like little more than depth options.
Chris Ivory, T.J. Yeldon, Jaguars
After Ivory posted a career-low 3.8 yards per carry in his first season in Jacksonville, the Jaguars spent their first-round draft choice on running back Leonard Fournette, giving them an instant upgrade as they try to implement a power-rushing attack. With such a heavy investment in the rookie, it's difficult to think that Ivory will see more than a few carries each week other than to spell Fournette. His best path to fantasy value likely is as a handcuff pick to Fournette. Yeldon's in the same boat after averaging 3.6 yards per carry in an extremely disappointing season last year.
Latavius Murray, Vikings
Well, that didn't take long. After signing a free-agent deal in March, Murray went from being the lead running back to being a huge question mark in April. The Vikings traded up in the second round to select Dalvin Cook seemingly with the intention of making Cook their lead back right away. Since Murray was unable to surpass 4.0 yards per carry in either of the last two seasons while running behind a strong offensive line in Oakland, it wasn't a difficult decision for the team to spend a draft pick on a player who has the potential of becoming an elite runner. Unless Murray somehow holds onto the job during training camp, he shouldn't be viewed as more than a depth option in fantasy drafts.
Ty Montgomery, Packers
Montgomery showed his playmaking ability last season when he averaged 5.9 yards per carry on 77 attempts while also proving to be an excellent receiver out of the backfield. Although he sits atop the Packers' depth chart at running back, the team spent a trio of draft picks to select Jamaal Williams (fourth round), Aaron Jones (fifth round) and Devante Mays (seventh round) to add competition at the position. Montgomery should remain an important player in the offense but could see inconsistent work week to week.
Jonathan Stewart, Panthers
Stewart posted a disappointing 3.8 yards per carry last season, and as he enters his age-30 season, it's reasonable to wonder if he's not already starting to decline as a runner. To make matters worse, the team added dynamic running back Christian McCaffrey with the eighth pick in the draft. It's possible Stewart holds down the majority of early down carries, and possibly much of the goal-line work, as the team shields the rookie from the grind of interior running, but he likely will not match the 17 rushing attempts he averaged per game in 2016. Also, should McCaffrey be a star from the moment he sets foot on the field, Stewart could find himself as simply a change-of-pace option.
Paul Perkins, Giants
Despite a limited work load as a rookie, Perkins averaged 4.1 yards on the ground and 10.8 yards per reception. However, the Giants added Wayne Gallman with their fourth-round draft pick, adding depth to the position. Perkins is still the backfield leader, but it's too early to know if Gallman will threaten his workload. Gallman projects to be an early down runner, so Perkins should still handle the passing-game work. Monitor the situation in training camp.
Jordan Howard, Bears
Howard piled up 298 receiving yards on 29 receptions last season, helping him become a top-10 fantasy back. Howard is still the lead back, but Chicago drafted Tarik Cohen, likely with the intention that he will step in as the primary receiving back. It's realistic to believe that Howard will see a reduced role in the passing game. He still should be drafted as a strong RB1, but don't be surprised to see his receiving numbers regress.
Frank Gore, Colts
Father time is the primary competition for Gore, who rushed for more than 1,000 yards for the seventh time in his age-33 season last year. But the team drafted Marlon Mack in the fourth round to provide more competition. Although Mack's offensive system in college might have inflated his numbers, his speed gives him upside to potentially steal some carries from Gore.
WIDE RECEIVER
Positive impact
DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
Primarily as a result of atrocious quarterback play in 2016, Hopkins produced just 954 yards and four touchdowns in an extremely disappointing fantasy season. After the team drafted quarterback Deshaun Watson, Hopkins' potential for a bounce-back season significantly improved. However, Tom Savage could hold on to the starting quarterback job while Watson is groomed as the quarterback of the future. But with the Texans being in a championship window, it's likely the rookie quarterback quickly finds his way to the lineup. Hopkins likely will come at a slight discount on draft day, and he should be a player who's worth making a slight reach for to make sure he's on your roster.
Negative impact
Keenan Allen, Chargers
Allen averaged 11 targets per game in 2015 before missing 15 games in 2016 due to a knee injury. Aside from the injury, his biggest fantasy asset was the target volume he received, and between the emergence of Tyrell Williams and the team adding Mike Williams in the first round of this year's draft, it's likely that Allen will see significantly fewer passes thrown his way this season. So, if the fact he's played just nine of the last 32 games isn't a concern, the increased talent at the wide receiver should give fantasy owners pause.
Rishard Matthews, Titans
Matthews was Titans' top receiver last year, but it would be a shock if he continued in that role after the team drafted Corey Davis in the first round. Davis profiles as a potential superstar, and Marcus Mariota should quickly realize the benefit of throwing the ball to a potential game-changer like him. Matthews still has fantasy value, but with the changing landscape in Tennessee, he shouldn't be counted on as much as he was last season.
Brandon LaFell, Bengals
LaFell became a useful fantasy option last season, but he could see decreased targets after the Bengals drafted wide receiver John Ross in the first round. Unless the rookie has significant struggles during training camp, it would be difficult to endorse LaFell as anything more than a WR4 in fantasy drafts.
