I've compiled these rankings using the thought process that the NFL churns through players like the Internet churns through Michael Jordan crying memes. I looked at each player and ranked him how I believe he will produce through a 2-3 year window.
Considering the many variations of keeper leagues, I thought it best to include a pick range in which I would keep the player. It's important to note that I also ranked these players as if it were a non-PPR league.
These rankings do not include upcoming rookies. My colleagues Mario Puig and John McKechnie have done an excellent job recapping those players' progress leading up to the NFL Draft. Once they land on a team, I will be sure to make a note of their situation and adjust my rankings accordingly.
1. Cam Newton
Keeper ranking: 2nd-3rd round
Much has been talked about Newton and the terrific season he had in 2015. While the Panthers were unable to win the Super Bowl, the 26-year-old's stock seems to be at an all-time high: a pretty impressive feat considering he was a top-five fantasy scoring QB three of the first four years of his career. While both his passing and rushing yardage were on par with his career averages, it was his combined 45 touchdowns that very well may end up being an outlier, as his previous highest touchdown total (35) came all the way back in his rookie season. While it's reasonable to assume Newton's touchdown numbers will drop,
I've compiled these rankings using the thought process that the NFL churns through players like the Internet churns through Michael Jordan crying memes. I looked at each player and ranked him how I believe he will produce through a 2-3 year window.
Considering the many variations of keeper leagues, I thought it best to include a pick range in which I would keep the player. It's important to note that I also ranked these players as if it were a non-PPR league.
These rankings do not include upcoming rookies. My colleagues Mario Puig and John McKechnie have done an excellent job recapping those players' progress leading up to the NFL Draft. Once they land on a team, I will be sure to make a note of their situation and adjust my rankings accordingly.
1. Cam Newton
Keeper ranking: 2nd-3rd round
Much has been talked about Newton and the terrific season he had in 2015. While the Panthers were unable to win the Super Bowl, the 26-year-old's stock seems to be at an all-time high: a pretty impressive feat considering he was a top-five fantasy scoring QB three of the first four years of his career. While both his passing and rushing yardage were on par with his career averages, it was his combined 45 touchdowns that very well may end up being an outlier, as his previous highest touchdown total (35) came all the way back in his rookie season. While it's reasonable to assume Newton's touchdown numbers will drop, the addition of Kelvin Benjamin, who tore his ACL prior to the start of the season as well as the continual development of Devin Funchess should keep Newton hovering in the top five quarterbacks for the foreseeable future.
2.Andrew Luck
Keeper ranking: 2nd-3rd round
Last year's RotoWire cover boy takes a bit of a dip in the initial 2016 rankings. While I'm not a huge fan of overreacting based on one injury-plagued season, Luck struggled through his first three games before kicking it into gear Week's 6-9. While I'm concerned with his perpetually sieve-like offensive line jeopardizing another season, Luck is still one of the premier quarterbacks in the NFL and should be a terrific keeper asset, especially considering the litany of talented players, including T.Y. Hilton, Donte Moncrief and last year's first-round pick, Phillip Dorsett, set to catch passes for the Colts.
3. Aaron Rodgers
Keeper ranking: No later than 3rd round
This could be a defining year for Rodgers' fantasy stock. Despite attempting the most passes of his career and posting yet another supreme TD/INT ratio (31:8), he barely managed to crack the top-10 fantasy QBs, duking it out with the likes of Kirk Cousins (yikes), Matthew Stafford (double yikes) and Eli Manning (come on, really?), who were all within 10 points of the Packers QB, according to ESPN standard scoring. There is reason for optimism, however, and it comes in bunches. Top receiver Jordy Nelson expected back fully healthy after tearing his ACL in the preseason? Check. Eddie Lacy potentially able to carry the load (pun intended) after shedding the pounds with P90X founder Tony Horton? Check. Scatterbug third-round pick Ty Montgomery likely healthy and lining up in the backfield on occasion after missing most of his first season thanks to a lingering ankle injury? You bet. That's not even factoring in Rodgers' health, which would appear to be trending upward after reports surfaced that he was forced to undergo arthroscopic knee surgery at the end of the season. While much of the NFL was ravaged by injuries last season, the return of much of the injured Packers' skill positions should push Rodgers up to elite fantasy status once more.
4. Ben Roethlisberger
Keeper ranking: 3rd-5th round
While Big Ben is seemingly guaranteed to miss some time each year (he's played in 16 games just three times in his 12-year career) he's been one of the top QBs when healthy. It's never a given to expect a healthy season from any player, but Roethlisberger's weapons, like Antonio Brown, pass-catching threat Le'Veon Bell and the newly signed Ladarius Green, and sheer usage should keep him among the top options for the foreseeable future. And while it certainly hurts the Steelers offense, Martavis Bryant's recent suspension likely won't hinder Big Ben's numbers horribly to the point where he falls anymore in my rankings.
5. Tom Brady
Keeper ranking: 4th-5th round
Brady was by far one of the toughest players to rank, thanks solely to his age. While the 38-year-old recently signed a contract extension that will keep him with the Patriots to at least the 2019 season, it's possible he will not play through the duration of his contract. If he was guaranteed to play at least the next three years at the same pace in which he performed in 2015, I might even consider scooting him above Luck, but, all things considered, I think this is a solid landing spot for Brady. While the additions of Martellus Bennett and Chris Hogan are hardly anything to write home about, they do present decent weapons (especially Bennett) for a Patriots team that always seems to do more with less.
6. Russell Wilson
Keeper ranking: 5th-7th round
If Andrew Luck's offensive line is a sieve, Russell Wilson is slated to head into next season with what amounts to a Titanic-level hole in the boat. Already considered a below-average offensive line, the Seahawks opted to let J.R. Sweezy and Russell Okung join other teams, leaving Bradley Sowell and Mark Glowinski to take their place. The Seahawks are expected to address the issue via the NFL Draft as well the leftovers remaining on the free-agent market, but their current line does not inspire confidence. While Wilson posted career-high numbers nearly across the board last season, including passes thrown, completion percentage, passing yards and touchdowns, it's fair to wonder whether the 27-year-old will be upright long enough to post strong numbers in 2016.
7. Blake Bortles
Keeper ranking: 5th-7th round
In what was arguably one of the most surprising developments of the 2015 season, Blake Bortles seemingly sprouted into a franchise quarterback overnight. Despite throwing close to 150 passes more than his rookie season, Bortles was able to keep his interception total (18) near respectable, while joining a trio of quarterbacks to throw for the second-most touchdowns (35) last season. While I would like to see Bortles put up the same type of numbers in 2016, the Jaguars appear to be sitting on a plethora of weapons, including Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns, Julius Thomas and Rashad Greene, something that could spell fortune for Bortles' fantasy owners for years to come.
8. Andy Dalton
Keeper ranking: 6th-9th round
After yet another heartbreaking and head-hurting first-round playoff exit for Dalton, fantasy owners might quickly forget his success in 2015. Seemingly always underrated despite posting above-average numbers, the TCU product was well on his way to surpassing career highs in passing yards and touchdowns before breaking his thumb Week 13 against Pittsburgh. Dalton's success last year certainly wasn't unprecedented, as he had thrown for more than 3,300 yards and 20 touchdowns in three of his four seasons, but he seemingly turned the corner when it came to turnovers, as he had thrown just seven picks until the ill-fated injury. It might be tough to expect Dalton to put up the same type of production with both Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones leaving for greener pastures this offseason, but the Bengals are a pretty good bet to invest in some receivers during the draft, and have had some success developing their skill positions over the years (hello A.J. Green). It's reasonable to assume Dalton could once again find himself putting up top-10 numbers.
9. Marcus Mariota
Keeper ranking: 7th-9th round
Really, Mariota and Jameis Winston could be considered 9A and 9B, as each displayed promising signs throughout the season. While Winston posted better numbers than Mariota almost across the board, part of that could be contributed to the fact that the Oregon alum missed four games. Take into consideration that the Tennessee coaching staff also seemed to coddle Mariota throughout much of his rookie season, and you have what appears to be a wash. Factor in the addition of DeMarco Murray, the possible emergence of Dorial Green-Beckham and the continual presence of oft-underrated Delanie Walker, and the future looks bright for Mariota.
10. Jameis Winston
Keeper ranking: 7th-9th round
Winston's numbers likely will continue to be compared to Mariota's throughout much of their careers, but at least for their rookie season it seems as if Winston had the slightest of edges. Coming out of college, the Florida State prospect was considered the better passer of the two quarterbacks, and his arm was certainly on display throughout the season (4,042 passing yards, 22:15 TD:INT ratio). Much of those numbers were buoyed by his Week 11 performance against a downtrodden Philadelphia team, in which he torched its secondary to the tune of 246 passing yards and five touchdowns. With a trio of sequoia trees to throw to in Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson and Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Winston should build upon his success from last season.
11. Carson Palmer
Keeper ranking: 8th-10th round
Quarterbacks 11-14 are almost a wash, as each is relatively close, either through productivity or potential (as is the case with Derek Carr). While Palmer was arguably one of the best fantasy quarterbacks last year and is starring down a weapon foundry the size of Stark Industries, with Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown, Michael Floyd and the emerging David Johnson all in tow, injury concerns have plagued him throughout his career. With just two years remaining on his current deal, the USC product won't remain a fixture in the NFL for years to come. He's a terrific option heading into next year, but fantasy owners should be plan for the future accordingly.
12. Drew Brees
Keeper ranking: 8th-10th round
Through the first seven weeks of last season, including an injury that derailed his start in Week 3, Brees looked like a veteran on his last legs, as he totaled just 1,871 passing yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions to go with two fumbles. But following his explosive performance against the Giants in Week 8, Brees eclipsed 300 yards passing five times, including a scorching-hot 1,388 passing yards, nine touchdowns and zero interceptions the last four weeks of the season. So which Brees should owners expect in 2016? While the Saints seem to be transitioning toward more of a running team, the Superdome definitely caters to an aerial attack, putting Brees' value in a bit of a limbo. Much like Palmer, the 37-year-old likely has a year or more in the tank, but even a supposed four-year contract extension does not mean fantasy owners should count on the Purdue product for years to come.
13. Derek Carr
Keeper ranking: 9th-11th round
In a world in which Blake Bortles can put up top-five QB numbers, Carr can certainly become a solid fantasy asset. It's just a matter of how long it will take. While he didn't blow anyone away with his yardage total (3,987) last season, the 2014 second-round pick did amass a 32:13 TD:INT ratio, a promising sign considering Carr predictably struggled to avoid turnovers his rookie year. The 24-year-old is a promising talent, albeit likely still a year or two away from realizing his full potential. As long as he continues to develop a repertoire with sensational rookie Amari Cooper, Carr should find himself climbing through the fantasy rankings in no time.
14. Philip Rivers
Keeper ranking: 9th-11th round
After reports surfaced suggesting Rivers could retire prior to the 2015 season, the 34-year-old promptly responded by putting up yet another 4,000-plus passing yard season, his seventh in his eight-year career. Simply put, Rivers should once again exceed the yardage threshold with the recent addition of speedster Travis Benjamin and the return of Keenan Allen and will likely throw his fair share of touchdowns. It's simply a matter of how long Rivers can continue to perform at this level. Much like Brees and Palmer, the 2004 first-round pick may be on his last legs if you believe those retirement rumors, especially if the Chargers decide to move to greener pastures. It might be wise to begin investing other assets into a younger backup QB, should a fantasy owner decide to roll with Rivers for another year.
15. Kirk Cousins
Keeper ranking: 10th round and beyond
Cousins rounds out the top 15 after a polarizing year with the Washington franchise. By now, most football fans are well versed in the turbulent route Cousins took toward the starting role. Charging into the playoffs after winning its final four games of the regular season, including a Week 14-16 stretch in which Cousins put up 985 passing yards and 10 total touchdowns, Washington fell flat on its face, losing to the Packers in dismal fashion. With Cousins agreeing to the franchise tag during the offseason, this could well be a "make or break" season for 2012 fourth-round pick. I'm more inclined to believe Cousins success could be chalked up as a one-year wonder, but crazier things have happened.
16. Tony Romo
17. Matthew Stafford
18. Eli Manning
19. Tyrod Taylor
20. Brock Osweiler
21. Ryan Tannehill
22. Matt Ryan
23. Joe Flacco
24. Jay Cutler
25. Alex Smith
26. Ryan Fitzpatrick
27. Teddy Bridgewater
28. Robert Griffin III
29. Colin Kaepernick
30. Sam Bradford
31. Case Keenum
32. Chase Daniel
33. Jimmy Garoppolo
34. Johnny Manziel
