NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down the Wild-Card Games

Kansas City at Houston (+3) - Saturday, 4:35 p.m. EST

Comments: The Chiefs are officially the hottest team in the league heading into the postseason, reeling off 10 consecutive wins to give the Broncos a scare in the AFC West before settling for the first wild-card spot. Defense was the driver of its success, as Kansas City finished the regular season third in points allowed (17.9 per game), in the top 10 in both rushing (eighth) and passing (ninth) yards allowed and second in takeaway differential at an impressive plus-14. The offense, however, has been sputtering, and finally seems to be missing Jamaal Charles. Alex Smith hasn't thrown for 200 yards in five games, averaging 161 passing yards over that stretch with an 8:5 RD:INT ratio, the running game hasn't been impressive (neither Charcandrick West nor Spencer Ware have topped 76 rushing yards in those five games, with three TDs between them) and Jeremy Maclin, with six touchdowns in his last six games, has been the only threat through the air. Tamba Hali, questionable with a thumb injury he's been playing through, is their only injury of note. ... It's a similar story for the Texans, who won three straight games to avoid the embarrassment of being the only division champ without a record better than .500. They finished the year tied with the Cardinals for seventh in scoring defense (19.6 points per game) and also in the top 10 in rushing (10th) and passing (third) yards allowed, and like the Chiefs their offense is fairly one-dimensional, with DeAndre Hopkins being their primary weapon, though Alfred Blue managed two 100-yard rushing games in the last three weeks. Brian Hoyer returned from his concussion in Week 17 and had a solid but uninspiring game, but Blue (calf) and Nate Washington (hip) are both questionable for Saturday, though both practiced in some capacity this week. ... The elephant in the room in this game is Andy Reid, who's been one-and-done in his last three trips to the postseason (two with the Eagles, one with the Chiefs) and hasn't won a playoff game since 2008. On paper, Kansas City has the deeper team, especially in the secondary, but it doesn't have Hopkins, it doesn't have J.J. Watt and it does have a coach with something of a reputation as a poor in-game strategist (to be polite).

Predictions: West leads the Chiefs' backfield with 60 yards. Smith gets sacked five times but throws for 220 yards and TDs to Maclin and Anthony Sherman. Blue rushes for 50 yards, while Hoyer throws for 260 yards and hits Hopkins and Cecil Shorts for scores. Watt returns a Smith fumble for another touchdown. Texans, 24-20

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+3) - Saturday, 8:15 p.m. EST

Comments: It could be cold and rainy in Cinci on Saturday night, which might be in the Bengals' favor. The last thing they want is for AJ McCarron to get into another shootout with Ben Roethlisberger, as the last one turned into a 33-20 loss, but they may not have much choice. Over the second half of the season, Roethlisberger averaged 345.5 passing yards a game with an 8.3 YPC, a 66.9 completion percentage and 16 TDs. The one blemish on his performance was his eight INTs, including six in his last three games, but gunslingers gonna sling. The one team that kept Roethlisberger in check this year, though? The Bengals. In his two games against Cincinnati, Big Ben managed just 272 passing yards a game and a 1:4 TD:INT ratio. ... DeAngelo Williams (foot) looks like he's be unavailable for the Steelers, putting even more responsibility on Roethlisberger's shoulders. The Bengals were seventh in rushing yards allowed during the regular season and kept him relatively in check, but Williams did have two rushing TDs in their Week 14 meeting. If he can't play, former Jaguar Jordan Todman and former Raven Fitzgerald Toussaint, who had 22 carries between them this season, will have to pick up the slack. ... McCarron's been mediocre since taking over for Andy Dalton in that Week 14 game, with 200 passing yards being his best effort the last three weeks, but he does have a clean 4:0 TD:INT ratio during that stretch. The story of this game may well be decided on defense, and whether the Bengals' ability to generate turnovers on Roethlisberger (they were third in the NFL in takeaway differential at plus-11) can outdo the Steelers' pass rush (third in sacks with 48, and they pulled McCarron down three times in three-plus quarters in Week 14).

Predictions: Toussaint surprises with 80 rushing yards and a score. Roethlisberger throws for 260 yards and touchdowns to Antonio Brown and Heath Miller. Giovani Bernard leads the Bengals' backfield with 70 combined yards, but Jeremy Hill scores. McCarron throws for 230 yards and a TD to A.J. Green, who tops 100 yards, but he gets sacked four times. Steelers, 27-17

Seattle at Minnesota (+5) - Sunday, 1:05 p.m. EST

Comments: Congratulations, Vikings! Your reward for winning the NFC North is a game against the two-time defending conference champs, who seem to be peaking at the right time and just destroyed the high-flying Cardinals in Week 17. Yikes. To make matters worse for Minnesota, Adrian Peterson strained his lower back in last week's win over the Packers and is questionable. It's hard to imagine he won't play, but it's also hard to imagine the Vikings winning this one if Peterson can't make a large impact. Of course, the Seahawks led the league in the regular season in rushing defense at 81.5 yards a game, so Peterson's health might have been a moot point anyway. ... Marshawn Lynch is expected to play for the first time since Week 10, but how effective he'll be after sports hernia surgery is arguably the biggest mystery of the postseason. Seattle's offense is not the same as the one he left, however, as Russell Wilson became unstoppable when he didn't have Beast Mode at his back, putting up an absurd 24:1 TD:INT ratio in the seven games Lynch missed. That reign of terror includes a 21-for-27, 274-yard, three-TD performance in Week 13's 38-7 win in Minnesota, incidentally, but this one should be closer as the Vikings' defense was gutted by injuries in that game. Nose tackle Linval Jospeh and safety Andrew Sendejo were out, and linebacker Anthony Barr and safety Harrison Smith were both knocked out of the game early, leading to a romp for the Seahawks. Of that bunch, only Joseph is still on the injury report (questionable with a lingering toe injury), but he seems likely to play in some capacity. ... Seattle has a few bumps and bruises of their own. Luke Willson remains out with a concussion, while electric rookie Tyler Lockett (hip) and defensive end Michael Bennett (toe) are both questionable, though they should play. Bennett's played through the injury for a while and has 3.5 sacks in his last five games, so expect to see him in Teddy Bridgewater's face.

Predictions: Lynch rushes for just 50 yards. Wilson throws for 280 yards and TDs to Jermaine Kearse and Cooper Helfet. Peterson is also limited to 50 yards, while Bridgewater throws for less than 200 yards but does hit Kyle Rudolph for a score. Seahawks 20-13

Green Bay (PK) at Washington - Sunday, 4:40 p.m. EST

Comments: Over the last three games, one of these starting quarterbacks has 860 passing yards and an 11:0 TD:INT ratio despite getting a partial rest in Week 17, while the other has just 646 passing yards and a miserable 3:3 TD:INT ratio, and is coming off a home loss in Week 17 that cost his team a division crown. Even looking at the stats, it's hard to wrap my head around the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing like, well, Aaron Rodgers, while Rodgers is playing like Don Majkowski, but there it is. Given the state of his offensive line and receiving corps, it doesn't seem likely that Rodgers will turn things around any time soon, either. ... That's not to say everything looks rosy for the boys in burgundy. Of the 12 teams that made the postseason, an amazing 11 of them ranked in the top 12 in scoring defense during the regular season. The one outlier? Washington, who sit 17th with 23.7 points per game allowed. (The one top-12 team that didn't make it? The Jets. Of course it's the Jets.) Green Bay's strength on defense also matches up well with Cousins, as it is seventh in sacks with 43 (tied, in a nice piece of synchronicity by the football gods, with division-mates Detroit and Minnesota), sixth in passing yards allowed (227.6 per game) and sixth in passing TDs allowed at 20. Meanwhile, Washington is 14th, 25th and 22nd in those categories, respectively, giving Rodgers a glimmer of hope. ... The football gods could also make all of this passing game talk irrelevant, as it could be rainy, windy and miserable in DC on Sunday. Neither team's defense was effective against the run, with the Packers sitting 21st at 119.1 rushing yards allowed per game and Washington ranking 26th with 122.6 rushing yards allowed per game, so this one could be decided by the battered backfields. Eddie Lacy is questionable with a rib injury and Matt Jones missed the final two games of the season with a sore hip, leaving James Starks and Alfred Morris to shoulder the loads.

Predictions: Neither Lacy nor Starks top 80 combined yards, but both score. Rodgers throws for 260 yards and TDs to Randall Cobb and Richard Rodgers. Morris rumbles for 110 yards and a touchdown, while Cousins falls back to earth, throwing for 280 yards and a TD to DeSean Jackson. Packers, 31-23

Last week's record: 7-9, 7-8-1 ATS
Regular season record: 157-99, 137-111-8 ATS