NFL Game Previews: Breaking Down Week 12

Philadelphia (PK) at Detroit - Thursday, 12:30 p.m. EST

Comments: Happy happy Turkey Day! Hunger pains will go away, but maybe not the pain of having Mark Sanchez as your QB. Unfortunately, Sam Bradford's shoulder injury leaves the Eagles with little choice this week. The Lions' pass defense has been statistically awful when you look at their full-season numbers, but over the course of their little two-game winning streak they held Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr to a combined 5.8 yards per pass attempt, a 55.8 completion percentage and just two TD passes. Against the ever-giving Sanchez, though, it would help if they had any ball-hawks in their secondary, as they're tied for last in the NFL with just four interceptions on the year. ... What Detroit also seems to lack is a running back who can follow up the hurting Doug Martin put on Philly's run defense last week. In fact, their front seven has allowed a 100-yard rusher in three of their last four games, and in the fourth Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi combined for a respectable 24-91-0 line. Heck, even Rashad Jennings averaged 4.8 yards a carry in that Monday night debacle for the Giants five games ago. Ameer Abdullah showed a flicker of life last week against Raiders, so if injuries have you strapped for RB options, he might be worth taking a chance on. ... Ryan Mathews remains sidelined with a concussion, so DeMarco Murray should again see most of the action in the Eagles backfield. He's currently on pace to run for less than half the yards a full yard per carry less than he did in 2014, something you can't just blame on the way Philly has been using him. Much like their pass defense, Detroit's run defense has had a bad year, and they're last in the NFL in rush TDs allowed (in their Week 8 loss, four different Chiefs ran in touchdowns). Working against the Lions' vulnerability is Murray's history of lethargic play on Thanksgiving. In three career Turkey Day games with the Cowboys he has just a 3.8 YPC and no 100-yard performances, although he did torch the Raiders for three TDs back in 2013.

Predictions: Murray runs for 70 yards, but scores twice. Sanchez throws for an inefficient 220 yards and a touchdown to Brent Celek. Abdullah picks up 90 combined yards and scores, while Matthew Stafford throws for 260 yards and a TD to Calvin Johnson. Lions, 23-21

Carolina (PK) at Dallas - Thursday, 4:30 p.m. EST

Comments: At first blush, the 10-0 Panthers being a pick 'em against the 3-7 Cowboys seems like an insult to Carolina. Think of it this way though: it's a battle of two undefeated quarterbacks, as the 10-0 Cam Newton takes on the 3-0 Tony Romo. Romo's return last week wasn't exactly flawless, but it did galvanize the whole team, as the defense was more willing to take chances knowing their QB was capable of bailing then out if necessary. That aggressiveness could represent their best chance Thursday. Newton hasn't made many mistakes this year (just nine INTs in 10 games, and the Panthers lead the league with a plus-13 turnover differential), which is to be expected when you're unbeaten. Even with Romo under center, the Cowboys will probably need to change that to win this one. ... Part of the reason they could be in trouble without turnovers is the Dallas run defense. It's been decidedly mediocre, ranking 15th in rushing yards allowed per game, 18th in YPC, and their 10 rushing TDs allowed puts them in the bottom five. Their front seven is as close to being at full strength as it's been all year, and Sean Lee is capable of being an effective spy when it comes to containing Newton, but if they can't withstand the pounding they're going to get from Jonathan Stewart and the Panthers' offensive line, it could be a long game for the Cowboys. ... How healthy is Dez Bryant, exactly? When he injured his foot back in Week 1 there were numerous questions raised regarding how long it would take him to get back to 100 percent, including from other players who suffered similar injuries. In four games since he got back on the field, Bryant has justified those concerns, catching just 16 of his 35 targets with a poor 5.9 yards per targets, and he's looked particularly inconsistent since his hard landing on that spectacular TD catch against the Eagles in Week 9. It's still Dez, and you can't dismiss him completely as a potential factor in this game now that Romo's back, but considering his matchup against Josh Norman on Thursday he's not someone you should count on to be productive.

Predictions: Stewart runs for 70 yards and scores. Newton runs for 30 more and throws for 230 yards and TDs to Ted Ginn and Devin Funchess. Darren McFadden slashes for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Romo keeps it close, throwing for 290 yards and TDs to Terrance Williams and Jason Witten. Panthers, 27-24

Chicago (+9) at Green Bay - Thursday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: Last week saw the return to normalcy for the Packers offense, but not for Aaron Rodgers. A 47 percent completion rate and 6.2 YPA aren't the kind of numbers you expect from him, as poor offensive line play and some less-than-reliable receiving options conspire to keep his production down. Fortunately for Green Bay, Eddie Lacy finally looked like his old self, picking up his first 100-yard rushing yard of the year (if only by the skin of his teeth). James Starks will still see some touches, but against a Bears defense that sits 29th in yards per rush attempt allowed (4.6) and 25th in rush yards allowed per game (123.7), they could both end up gaining some real estate if the game gets out of hand. ... Jay Cutler has always gusted hot and cold, but his latest warm spell may have ended already. After posting a 70.1 percent completion rate, 8.4 YPA and 6:1 TD:INT ratio over three games coming out of Chicago's bye, he produced a dud last week. Granted, he was facing a very tough Broncos secondary, but the Packers are no slouches either, ranking seventh in QB rating allowed (82.0). Cutler, as per usual for this season, won't have a full complement of targets available, as Alshon Jeffery (groin and shoulder), Martellus Bennett (ribs) and Eddie Royal (knee) are all listed as questionable. Royal's highly unlikely to play, as he hasn't suited up since Week 8, while Jeffery and Bennett were both limited in practice Tuesday. If Bennett can't go, Zach Miller's fairly impressive Gary Barnidge impression will likely continue. ... On the bright side for Chicago, Matt Forte is expected back from his knee injury. Jeremy Langford firmly established himself as the team's RB of the future during his absence, so a timeshare is certainly possible, but if Forte is at full speed the Bears may need as many snaps out of him as they can get to steal a win at Lambeau Field. The Packers' weak run defense (22nd in rush yards allowed per game, 23rd in YPC against) gives both Forte and Langford a fighting chance at productive games.

Predictions: Forte picks up 60 combined yards and a receiving TD, while Langford chips in 50 yards but doesn't score. Cutler throws for 250 yards and two more touchdowns to Josh Bellamy and Miller. Lacy has a huge game, rushing for 130 yards and two TDs, while Rodgers throws for 220 yards and a touchdowns to Randall Cobb and Richard Rodgers. Packers, 31-24

New Orleans (+3) at Houston - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Rob Ryan and his Lebowski-like 'do may be gone, but that doesn't mean the Saints are suddenly going to become a defensive powerhouse. The only thing worse than their 8.9 YPA (half a yard worse than the Chargers in 31st place) is their 28 passing touchdowns surrendered (seven TDs worse than the Browns and Bucs), and, oh yeah, they have the worst run defense in the league too at 4.9 YPC allowed. Dennis Allen, the new coordinator, was Sean Payton's secondary coach back when New Orleans won the Super Bowl, and his DBs compensated for allowing too many yards by pulling down a lot of interceptions, so you might see Jairus Byrd return to his ball-hawking ways. Otherwise, Allen doesn't have a lot to work with here. Don't expect a huge turnaround from the unit over the final six weeks. ... DeAndre Hopkins turned Revis Island into Bikini Atoll last week, blowing up for 118 yards and two scores, but it actually wasn't that surprising even before you consider the concussion Revis suffered in the game. Hopkins is literally the entire Texans offense at this point, seeing double-digit targets in every games this year, and regardless of who's at quarterback for Houston, he's their first, second and third read. Curiously, though, facing the Saints might make him a worse play, since their secondary can't really cover anybody. With Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts (and Ryan Griffin, and Chris Polk, and, well, you get the idea) being open, too, Brian Hoyer won't need to force it to Hopkins quite as often. ... Mark Ingram (shoulder) is banged up, so what chance New Orleans has will, as usual, fall on Drew Brees. The Texans haven't been great against the pass, but J.J. Watt has been getting frisky lately, racking up three sacks in the last two games, and Brees has been sacked 23 times in nine games. To put it another way, what chance the Saints have will come down to their offensive line's ability to keep Watt from falling on Brees.

Predictions: Ingram plays but gains just 60 yards, while C.J. Spiller adds 50 combined yards. Brees throws for 270 yards and TDs to Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead, but gets sacked four times. Alfred Blue tops 100 rushing yards and scores, while Hoyer throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Hopkins, Shorts and Griffin. Texans, 31-17

St. Louis (+9) at Cincinnati - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments:Case Keenum's concussion, and the lack of treatment he got for it at the end of last week's game, got all the post-game attention but for the first 59 minutes he actually looked like a downgrade from Nick Foles, which is really hard to do. The Rams probably have no choice this week but to turn back to Foles, which means more eight-man fronts for poor Todd Gurley. The rookie's managed to score in five straight games, but has just a 3.3 YPC over his last three due to all those stacked fronts. The Bengals have been vulnerable on the ground, ranking 27th in YPC allowed at 4.5, but with the Rams offering no threat through the air, Gurley's unlikely to break out. ... Rob Gronk-who? Tyler Eifert now has a league-leading 11 touchdowns, and has scored in six of 10 games this season. Gronkowski actually has one more red zone target and a lot more yardage, of course, but Eifert has solidly established himself as the second-best fantasy tight end in the game. His red zone targets haven't come at anyone's expense either, as A.J. Green, Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill are all seeing their usual amount of work from in close. The Rams have been stingy against tight ends this year, allowing just three TDs to TEs, but the Cards had only allowed one heading into last week before getting Eiferted. It's fair to say at this point that he's fairly matchup-proof, with the only concern about him being what happens in the games where he doesn't score (just 33.5 receiving yards a game in those four contests). ... If you're trying to time the market on the Bengals backfield, the Rams rank eighth with a 3.8 YPC but have been only mediocre against pass-catching backs. That suggests Bernard, who has 13 catches on 18 targets for 171 yards over the last two games, is probably the one you want this week.

Predictions: Gurley doesn't score but manages 70 rushing yards. Foles throws for 160 yards and a TD to Tavon Austin. Bernard racks up 130 combined yards and scores, while Hill rushes for only 50 yards. Andy Dalton throws for 240 yards and a touchdown to Eifert. Bengals, 23-6

Minnesota (+2) at Atlanta - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: The Vikings flopped in their head-to-head matchup with the Packers, but Green Bay's own Thursday night dud gives them a chance to regain control of the NFC North. The Falcons' pass defense has been solid, ranking seventh in YPA allowed (6.9) and tied for fifth in TD passes allowed (13), but Minnesota wasn't likely to be relying on Teddy Bridgewater's arm anyway as Adrian Peterson looks to rebound from his lowest rushing total since Week 1. Atlanta's run defense has also been fairly stout (third in YPC against at 3.6), but their 11 rushing TDs allowed is better only than the Lions and Chargers. AP's ability to hit paydirt, something he's done in three straight games, will make the difference here. ... Matt Ryan continues to heave the ball around a lot, but doesn't have the best results to show for it. Over the last six games, he's averaged over 43 attempts a game but managed better than a 6.7 YPA just once while collecting a 9:7 TD:INT ratio. The loss of Devonta Freeman to a concussion and Leonard Hankerson to a re-aggravated hamstring won't help improve his efficiency either, as aside from Julio Jones his best targets are now the ghost of Roddy White (four catches on nine targets last week for just 24 yards) and Jacob Tamme, who was forgotten in the game plan against the Colts. Julio will get his, even against a fairly tough Vikings secondary, but until a secondary option emerges, Ryan's no better than an overpriced Matthew Stafford or Brian Hoyer. ... If there's one person Freeman's injury helps, though, it's Tevin Coleman. The rookie hasn't had many chances to show what he can do since dashing for 80 yards in the opener, and it's somewhat surprising that despite his electric speed, he doesn't yet have a carry longer than 20 yards on the year. Minnesota's just 24th in the league in YPC allowed (4.3) and 17th in rushing yards allowed per game (110.1), so this could be Coleman's chance to show what he can do.

Predictions: Peterson runs for 80 yards but doesn't score. Bridgewater throws for 210 yards and a TD to Cordarrelle Patterson. Coleman has a good game, rushing for 90 yards and a touchdown, while Ryan throws for 280 yards and TDs to Tamme and Jones, who tops 120 receiving yards for the fourth straight game. Falcons, 24-13

N.Y. Giants at Washington (+2.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Nobody was more thankful Thursday night than the Giants and Washingtonians, after both the Eagles and Cowboys looked decidedly awful in Thanksgiving losses. A Giants win here puts them two games clear in the NFC East and gives them them what could prove to be an insurmountable lead. A Washington win, however, moves them into a tie for the division lead and keeps everything nice and muddy. Muddy could also describe the field, as rain is expected in D.C. on Sunday morning. If the game becomes trench warfare rather than an aerial bombardment, it doesn't necessarily favor Washington despite their apparent talent advantage in the backfield. The Giants' run defense is middle of the pack, but Washington's has been terrible, allowing a 4.8 YPC (29th in the league) and 136 rushing yards a game (30th). ... Coming out of their bye, the Giants are fairly healthy, with only Larry Donnell a significant loss from their ideal starting lineup. Washington is also near full strength, especially with DeSean Jackson finally back in form. He caught his first TD pass of the season last week and has hauled in bombs of 40 or more yards in consecutive weeks. Weather willing, both Jackson and Odell Beckham could be in line for big days, as the two pass defenses have similar records of futility (24th and 25th in YPA allowed, 23rd and 27th in TD passes allowed, 27th and 31st in sacks). If one side has the advantage, though, it's the Giants, who have Jason Pierre-Paul back and at least are tied for second in the league with 14 interceptions. ... Kirk Cousins has flashed over the last month against the weaker pass defenses in the league, posting two of his three 300-yard passing games and both of his multi-TD games in the last four games, victimizing the Bucs and Saints. His third 300-yard game? Back in Week 3 against the Giants, of course. New York's secondary has gotten healthier since then and even short-handed they still picked off two of Cousins' passes in that game, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go off again.

Predictions:Rashad Jennings leads the Giants backfield with 60 combined yards. Eli Manning throws for 250 yards and a touchdown to Beckham, who tops 100 yards. Dwayne Harris also returns a punt for a score. Matt Jones leads the Washington backfield with 90 combined yards and a score, while Cousins throws for 290 yards and TDs to Jackson and Jordan Reed. Washington, 27-20

Tampa Bay (+3) at Indianapolis - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Everything's suddenly coming up Jameis. After throwing just four TD passes in his previous five games combined, Winston torched the Eagles for five touchdowns last week and now gets a Colts pass defense that's allowed 19 TD passes on the year, tied for seventh-worst in the league. The rookie's overall numbers have been strong this year, and it's not just a coincidence that his big game came when both of his big outside targets, Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, were healthy for the first time since the Bucs' Week 6 bye. Vontae Davis will likely lock onto one of them, but with Greg Toler still not 100 percent after a neck injury and third-round pick D'Joun Smith just 16 defensive snaps into his career after starting the season on IR, Indy doesn't have a reliable second cornerback to handle duties opposite Davis. He probably won't put up a five-spot again, but Winston's value is definitely trending up. Oh, by the way, he also gets to feast on the Saints' secondary in Week 14, and faces a weak Bears unit in Week 16. If you're looking for a sneaky fantasy playoffs play at QB, look no further. ... Speaking of performances not likely to be repeated, Doug Martin's 235 rushing yards while somehow not getting into the end zone once was an impressive feat, but don't assume he'll come crashing back to earth against the Colts. Indy's run defense is mediocre at best, ranking 23rd in yards per game allowed at 113.4, and they allow almost one rushing TD a game. So far this year, Martin has alternated three double-digit rushing games with three triple-digit ones, and last week's explosion would be the first of the latest trifecta if the pattern holds up. ... Winston's opposite number, Matt Hasselbeck, is as far from a rookie wunderkind as you can get, but he quietly went about his business last week and ran his record to 3-0 as Andrew Luck's understudy. Throwing two TDs passes to Ahmad Bradshaw helped almost nobody except the Colts, but he should have a little more success downfield this week. The Bucs pass defense is pretty poor, allowing a QB rating of 98.2 (25th in the league) and 21 TD passes (tied for third-worst), so Hasselbeck can probably look to his wideouts a little more often than he did last week against the Falcons. FYI - T.Y. Hilton saw 22 targets in his first two starts, turning them into 12 catches for 155 yards.

Predictions: Martin runs for 110 yards and scores twice. Winston throws for 260 yards and a TD to Jackson. Frank Gore bangs out 70 yards, while Hasselbeck throws for 240 yards and touchdowns to Hilton and Andre Johnson. Buccaneers, 24-17

Buffalo (+5) at Kansas City - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Maybe Jamaal Charles isn't as special as we thought. He gets hurt, Charcandrick West emerges out of nowhere, gets plugged into the Chiefs offense and doesn't miss a beat. West then gets hurt last week so Spencer Ware, who came into the game with all of nine NFL touches in his career, busts out 96 yards and two TDs on just 11 carries. Kind of sucks to be Knile Davis, but it also demonstrates how committed K.C. is to their run game and how their offense is geared around it. Werst hasn't practiced all week with his hamstring issue, so Ware probably starts Sunday against a Bills defense that's been less effective against the run than you'd expect, given the talent in their front seven. ... That commitment to the running game takes its toll on Alex Smith's passing numbers, of course, but low volume doesn't fully explain Jeremy Maclin's swoon. In his last four games, including the Week 6 matchup against the Vikings in which he suffered a concussion, Maclin's caught just 12 passes (exactly three in each game) for 129 yards and one TD on 21 targets. When you can only manage 29 receiving yards against the Chargers, it's fair to ask exactly how healthy you are, and this year's concussion wasn't Maclin's first. The NFL is at least paying lip service to the idea of keeping players out in the short term after they suffer a head trauma, and the Gifford family put the long-term effects back in the spotlight this week, but there's still little consideration given to the cumulative effects of multiple concussions while a player is still active. I hope, for Maclin's sake, I'm just over-reacting to a small sample slump. ... It shouldn't have been all that surprising to see Bill Belichick's defense keep Tyrod Taylor contained Monday, but the bigger issue than one poor game is the injury to his throwing shoulder he picked up in the loss. Taylor's going to play through it, and after seeing what EJ Manuel has to offer you can hardly blame the Bills. Rex Ryan says he wants to get the ball to Sammy Watkins more often, but Watkins saw 13 targets in the two games after he destroyed the Dolphins and turned them into just six catches for 53 yards. More targets won't be the answer for Watkins if Taylor's arm prevents him from delivering them accurately or with any zip.

Predictions:LeSean McCoy picks up 80 combined yards. Taylor struggles, throwing for under 200 yards and a TD to Watkins, but he also gets picked off twice. Ware gets the start and bangs out 80 rushing yards and a touchdown, while Smith throws for 260 yards and a TD to Anthony Sherman. Chiefs, 26-10

Oakland at Tennessee (+1.5) - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Oh, Oakland, you tease. Just as everyone starts getting used to the idea that you might be competent again, you go and lose three straight games. To be fair, two of those games were on the road, and all three were against quality opponents (given what the Lions have done their last three games, it seems like a reasonable assessment), so it's not like the Raiders was losing to scrubs such as, well, the Titans. Even during the three-game losing streak, though, Derek Carr remained fairly solid, managing a 6:3 TD:INT ratio and throwing for 300-plus yards in two of the three contests. A matchup against a Titans defense that allows 8.0 yards per attempt, fifth-worst in the league, seems like a great opportunity to get back on track. ... Marcus Mariota has two games this season with four TDs and zero INTs. In his other six games, he's got a 5:6 TD:INT ratio, which is pretty much the definition of rookie inconsistency. On the bright side, his knee looked a whole lot better last week when he ran in his first NFL touchdown, and a Mariota that can scramble is a very different opponent than one trapped in the pocket. The Raiders defense hasn't really faced a mobile QB this year, with Teddy Bridgewater being as close as they've come, so how well their somewhat pedestrian linebacking corps is able to contain Mariota could well determine the outcome of this one. ... Mariota also seems likely to get his top wide receiver back from a knee injury, but then again, it's only Kendall Wright. Dexter McCluster remains out with his own knee injury, depriving Tennessee of a potential weapon against a lackluster Raiders special teams unit that's already given up one kickoff return for a TD this season.

Predictions:Latavius Murray runs for 100 yards and scores. Carr throws for 260 yards and TDs to Michael Crabtree and Clive Walford. Antonio Andrews has his best day as a pro, rushing for 110 yards. Mariota throws for 220 yards and a TD to Wright, but also runs for 50 yards and a score of his own. Titans, 23-21

San Diego (+4) at Jacksonville - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: It's amazing how quickly a quarterback can get derailed when he has no one healthy to throw to. Philip Rivers went from being a fantasy juggernaut, throwing for over 300 yards and multiple TDs in five straight games between Weeks 4-8 to throwing for 458 yards and a single score in his last two games combined. Keenan Allen's loss was clearly crippling for the Chargers' passing game, but at the same time Malcom Floyd (shoulder), Antonio Gates (hip) and Ladarius Green (ankle) were all playing through injuries of their own, and no one else stepped up to replace all that lost production. All three of them were practicing in full by the end of this week, though, giving Rivers some hope that he might be able to regain at least some of his mojo. ... Blake Bortles has been a younger clone of Rivers in many ways this season, also throwing multiple TDs in five straight games between Weeks 5-10 as he attempted to compensate for a porous defense. Unlike Rivers, though, Bortles has had no issues with his receiving corps. Allen Hurns' seven-game TD streak ended last week, but both he and Allen Robinson have three 100-yard receiving games and seven touchdowns on the year. Robinson has more yards and more targets, but the two have been more WR1A and WR1B this season than WR1 and WR2. The Chargers can't seem to cover anybody, so Sunday could be one of those rare games when both Allens are productive. ... The stark difference between these two teams comes on the ground. The Jaguars have been tough against the run, leading the league with a 3.4 YPC allowed, while the Chargers are 31st with a 4.9 YPC against. Meanwhile. T.J. Yeldon is on pace for over 250 more rushing yards than fellow rookie Melvin Gordon despite missing a game, and he's actually managed to get into the end zone a couple of times. If anything is going to slow down the Jags' passing attack Sunday, it'll be the fact that they don't need to rely on it, rather than anything San Diego's secondary is doing.

Predictions: Gordon manages just 40 yards, while Danny Woodhead gains 70 combined yards and scores a receiving TD. Rivers throws for 310 yards and a second touchdown to Gates. Yeldon hits for a career-high 140 rushing yards and a TD, while Bortles throws for 220 yards and four touchdowns, two to Robinson and one each to Hurns and Julius Thomas. Jaguars, 38-20

Miami (+3.5) at NY Jets - Sunday, 1 p.m. EST

Comments: Do either of these teams even want to make the playoffs? The Dolphins have won one of their last four games and have the distinction of being the only team to lose to the Cowboys since September, while the Jets have won once in their last five games after starting the year 4-1. The Jets won the first meeting back in Week 4, helping to chase Joe Philbin out of Miami, and this one doesn't set up well for the Fish either. Both Jarvis Landry (knee) and Rishard Matthews (illness) are questionable for Sunday, and while Lamar Miller and Jay Ajayi make for a potentially exciting backfield duo, they'll be facing a defense that ranks seventh in YPC allowed (3.8), fourth in rushing yards allowed per game (91.6) and first in rushing TDs allowed (two). Ryan Tannehill isn't exactly the QB you want to rely on when nothing else you're trying on offense is working. Darrelle Revis is out with a concussion, though, which gives Tannehill and whichever Miami receivers are healthy enough to take advantage some hope. ... Ryan Fitzpatrick was absolutely awful last week, but he was also about nine days removed from surgery on his non-throwing thumb, so some allowances can be made. Another week of healing and a matchup against a Dolphins defense allowing a 95.2 QB rating to the opposition, 23rd in the league, should be just what the doctor ordered. ... Miami's run defense is coughing up 138.6 rushing yards a game, just two-tenths of a yard behind the dreadful Browns. Chris Ivory basically got the week off when the Jets fell behind early to the Texans, so he should be healthy and rested for this one, and he ripped through the Dolphins defense for a career-high 166 yards and a TD the first time the two teams met this season.

Predictions: Miller picks up 90 combined yards and scores. Tannehill throws for 210 yards and a TD to Kenny Stills. Ivory doesn't quite match his Week 4 performance but gains 130 combined yards and a touchdown, while Fitzpatrick throws for 260 yards and three TDs, two to Brandon Marshall and one to Eric Decker. Jets, 31-17

Arizona at San Francisco (+10.5) - Sunday, 4:05 p.m. EST

Comments:Blaine Gabbert looked, well, respectable in Seattle, which is actually a fairly impressive accomplishment. Sure, he bottomed out in Jacksonville, but he's still just 26 and with Colin Kaepernick possibly done in San Francisco (if not the NFL), the Niners may well have lucked into a solid young QB. His experiences with the Jags have made him somewhat risk-averse, and in many ways he's become Alex Smith's counterpart, an athletic QB who can make plays but prefers to be a game manager after being thrown to the wolves by his first organization. It would be a bit poetic if a similar career path allows him to carve out a career in San Francisco. ... That said, his chances of stealing this game are about nil, and rely entirely on the Cardinals letting their foot off the gas pedal after two big wins over the Seahawks and Bengals. This might well be a trap game for Arizona, but Carson Palmer seems capable of generating 30 points as easily as falling out of bed. He's thrown three of more TDs in three straight games, and a Niners defense allowing a 102.8 QB rating, fourth-worst in the league, doesn't seem like a unit capable of slowing him down. ... Palmer's receiving corps seems like it will be mostly healthy too. Michael Floyd is questionable after his hamstring limited him in practice all week, but both Larry Fitzgerald (ankle) and John Brown (hamstring) are likely to play. Even if Floyd can't suit up, speed merchant J.J. Nelson is a heck of an insurance policy.

Predictions:Chris Johnson scampers for 90 yards and a score. Palmer throws for 240 yards and TDs to Fitzgerald and Jermaine Gresham. Shaun Draughn gets another start for the 49ers and picks up 90 combined yards. Gabbert throws for 230 yards and touchdown to Travaris Cadet and Quinton Patton. Cardinals, 24-17

Pittsburgh (+4) at Seattle - Sunday, 4:25 p.m. EST

Comments: A couple of weeks after Carson Palmer strolled into town and turned the Legion of Boom into the Legion of Whoosh, a healthy Ben Roethlisberger comes around to try and do it again. Seattle's pass defense has been good this season but not great, ranking 12th in YPA allowed (7.0) and 15th in QB rating allowed (88.8), and good-but-not-great may not get it done against Big Ben. Part of the problem has been a lack of turnovers, as the Seahawks are tied for last in the league with just four INTs. Just two years ago, they led the league with 28. Those picks, as much as the big hits from Kam Chancellor and Earl Thomas, are what made opposition QBs leery of testing them, and without them the Seattle secondary is a whole lot less intimidating. Richard Sherman is still capable of at least muting Antonio Brown, if not shutting him down completely, but that still leaves Martavis Bryant running around unaccounted for, not to mention Heath Miller up against a defense that's allowed over 70 yards a game and seven TDs to tight ends. ... Marshawn Lynch will be out a while after sports hernia surgery, but Thomas Rawls looked like he had a Beast Mode of his own last week. Rawls has been fantastic when given a chance this season, posting three 100-yard rushing performances in the four games he's gotten double-digit touches, but he'll be hard-pressed to make it four of five against the Steelers, who are sixth in the league with 93.0 rushing yards allowed and have also given up just three rushing TDs, tied for second in the league. ... Linebacker Bruce Irvin will miss his second straight game with a sprained MCL, weakening the Seattle front seven just a little bit more. He's more of a factor in the pass rush than in coverage or run stopping, but if there are any lingering issues with Roethlisberger's foot, that could be a crucial absence.

Predictions:DeAngelo Williams runs for 60 yards. Roethlisberger throws for 320 yards and touchdowns to Miller and Bryant, who tops 100 yards. Rawls bangs out 80 yards and scores, while Russell Wilson throws for 230 yards and a TD to Doug Baldwin. Steelers, 23-20

New England at Denver (+3) - Sunday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: There's no truth to the rumor that Bill Belichick called up Randy Moss and Deion Branch to see if they were in game shape, but it's not that far-fetched. Danny Amendola lasted all of one game as Julian Edelman's replacement before injuring his knee, leaving the Pats with just three active wide receivers heading into this week: "Butterfingers" Brandon LaFell, Keshawn Martin (44 career catches in 51 games) and Chris Harper (zero catches in two career games). I would have said 'three healthy options', but Martin's playing through a hamstring injury. Harper, an undrafted free agent out of Cal, is a shifty little guy and stands the best chance of filling the Edelman/Amendola role in the offense, so if you need to throw a dart at a WR this week you might as well grab him, but the more likely scenario has Ron Gronkowski getting all the targets he can handle. Against a Broncos pass defense that's given up a league-low eight TD passes and ranks second to the Panthers in most other categories, Brady would have been in line for a tough day anyway, but he'll really have his work cut out for him now. ... On the other hand, Brock Osweiler gets to face a Belichick defense for the first time. Belichick's schemes have a tendency to baffle rookie QBs, but Osweiler isn't exactly a rookie despite heading into his second career start. He's looked solid so far, but facing the Chiefs and Bears doesn't have quite the same pressure attached to it. Getting Emmanuel Sanders back, even if he isn't 100 percent, will help. ... Both teams have been strong against the run, with the Broncos allowing a lower YPC but the Pats allowing fewer TDs and about five yards a game less. That doesn't bode well for either of Denver's backs or for LeGarrette Blount, but there might be a bit of a silver lining for Ronnie Hillman. He's been more effective out of a traditional formation, which the Broncos use with Brock Osweiler, than he has with Peyton Manning's preferred pistol formation.

Predictions: Blount pounds out 60 yards and scores. Brady throws for 220 yards and a TD to Gronkowski, who tops 100 yards. Hillman runs for 80 yards and a touchdown, while Osweiler throws for 240 yards and a TD to Demaryius Thomas. Broncos, 23-17

Baltimore (+2.5) at Cleveland - Monday, 8:30 p.m. EST

Comments: You have to hand it to Johnny Manziel, at least he's consistent. Just when it looks like the Browns are willing to sink or swim with him under center, he fratboys it up off the field and gets bumped down to third string. Manziel might get yet another chance at some point, but for now Josh McCown will be back under center, which is bad news for the future of the franchise but good news for Gary Barnidge. Barnidge was still a red zone threat with Manziel at QB but he saw more targets, and more downfield targets, from McCown than he did from Johnny Football. McCown also threw for 457 yards in the team's first matchup this season back in Week 5, so him getting the start might end up being good news for just about all their receiving options. ... Cleveland isn't the only team with a new/old quarterback. The Ravens lost Joe Flacco for the year to a torn ACL, and now have to hand the reins over to Matt Schaub, who hasn't had a positive TD:INT ratio or a YPA north of 7.0 since 2012. Much as with the Browns, though, the one winner from the switch might be the tight end. Crockett Gillmore was already emerging as Baltimore's top target given all their injuries at wide receiver, and Schaub has a long history of making productive use out of his tight end from his Texans days, when Owen Daniels was his go-to chain-mover. There's not much upside in the Ravens passing game down the stretch, but what upside there is lies with Gillmore. ... The Browns still have one of the worst run defenses in the league (last in yards per game, 28th in YPC allowed), so Javorius Allen seems set to make a good first impression in his first NFL start. The last time Cleveland faced a rookie starting RB, Todd Gurley hit them up for 128 yards and two TDs. Allen may not be at Gurley's level talent-wise, but the Browns are capable of making any back look like an All-Pro for an evening.

Predictions: Allen runs for 110 yards and a touchdown. Schaub throws for 200 yards and a TD to Gillmore, but also gets picked off twice. Duke Johnson leads the Browns backfield with 90 combined yards and a score, while McCown throws for 270 yards and touchdowns to Travis Benjamin and Brian Hartline. Browns, 27-14

Last week's record: 7-7, 5-8-1 ATS
Season to date: 97-63, 83-71-6 ATS