This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.
What To Make of A Diminished Thing?
Prior to the season, all our teams are potential champions, and our survivor entries are in it for the duration. Our top choices could stay healthy, our sleepers could pan out. And all we have to do is pick one winner every week. It can be done.
It doesn't take long - two weeks is plenty - for even our more modest hopes to be destroyed in the regular course of NFL action. In my DFS Crossover league, for example, my first two picks were Dez Bryant and Brandin Cooks (who's not the Hall of Famer I was promised he'd be and is now playing with an injured quarterback.)
And I don't have to explain the situation in survivor where I'm still alive in only my re-buy pool.
So how do we handle this? You could simply plunge headlong into DFS (though I lit $200 on fire there too*), but DFS has a significant rake, i.e., it's negative EV, and it's also largely anonymous, so you won't get the satisfaction concomitant to vanquishing the douchewads in your league. For many of us, while the monetary prize is necessary and nice, without the sense of being better than someone else, and knowing he knows you beat his ass, and no matter how long you both live it will always be so, the motivation is lacking. Don't get me wrong, I'm still trying for the big DFS score - a big enough sum makes up for the missing schadenfreude - but I also want to salvage what's left of my bad season-long teams, painful as some of those rosters might be to look at.
I think that's actually an underrated factor in why certain owners perform better than others over time - the willingness to do their best when things go poorly and the upside of trying isn't readily apparent. I've been guilty in the past of checking out once a team goes south - not outright quitting (though unethical, what a relief to wash your hands of a disaster!) - but going through the motions of free agency and setting lineups without having my heart in it. This is something one must resist, and it's tough, especially when you have a lot of leagues. Beyond simply prioritizing your time toward the contenders, we're wired to focus on things that make us feel good - my 2-0 Steak League team, rather than the opposite (my DFS Crossover Challenge where I benched Eli Manning and Odell Beckham at the last second for Sam Bradford and Jordan Matthews on DraftKings, all so I could get Martellus Bennett in the lineup once Alshon Jeffery was scratched.) It's uncomfortable to look at something at which you're failing. We want to avoid such discomfort and instead seek out pleasant reminders of our successes.
But there's value in giving your full attention to the struggling teams, experiencing the sense of futility and failure, even basking in it to an extent and wondering whether you can re-mold them into fringe contenders. That's my task for more teams than I'd like this week, though it helps that in several of them I'm getting Le'Veon Bell (2), Arian Foster (3) and Todd Gurley (3) back.
* One of the reasons my DFS squads fared so poorly this week is I used a lot of Mike Evans. Giving his lofty FanDuel price tag ($8100), you might wonder why I did this. It's because (1) I had him in a few lineups, but when Alshon Jeffery (whom I also liked) was scratched, I did a player replace for Evans who was exactly the same price, greatly increasing my exposure to Evans; (2) Because Evans was expensive and coming off a game missed due to injury, I figured he'd be largely unowned; (3) the Bucs were 10-point underdogs and therefore likely to throw a lot; and (4) Because I was staying at a friend's house in Menlo Park last weekend for a wedding, and that friend's name was Mike Evans. Before you mock me for (4), you should know I'm having a fantastic fantasy baseball season, due in some part to Rangers closer Shawn Tolleson. While I picked him up in a few leagues based on then closer Neftali Feliz's foreseeable implosion, in the NFBC Main Event, my highest stakes league, I bid on him only after Feliz was already on the ropes. I wasn't sure how much to bid, and the bids weren't due until 7 pm PT on Sunday. Earlier that day, I took my three-and-a-half-year-old daughter Sasha next door to our neighbor's house. They have twin girls a little older than her, and their mom's name is Shawn. I didn't know how she spelled her first name, and I didn't know her last name. While standing at the door with Sasha, I noticed their mailbox bearing her name: "Shawn Tolleson." I did a double-take, wondering if that were the exact name of the closer on whom I was bidding. I went home, looked it up, and it was spelled the exact same way. I upped my bid to $30 (out of a $1,000 budget) even though Feliz had not yet lost the job, Tolleson had never closed before, and it wasn't 100 percent clear he was next in line. I went back into the office attached to my house and did the rest of my Sunday FAAB bids. When I arrived back into the main house, who was in my den, talking to Heather (Sasha's mom)? Shawn Tolleson herself. I told her about the situation, and she of course knew who the player was and said she had gotten his email on occasion (apparently their addresses are one character apart.) I took this as a sign and upped my bid to $40. When the FAAB results came back, the second highest bid was by RotoWire's Scott Jenstad for $37. Tolleson has 32 saves and six wins, largely racked up over the four months I've had him on my team. So you can see how it would be hard to resist starting Mike Evans while watching the games at Mike Evans' house. While it didn't pan out this time, I refuse to live in a universe where Shawn Tolleson-level coincidences mean nothing.
Week 2 Observations
• After botching another end-game sequence, the Giants are 0-2, and it's particularly inopportune when you consider they could be 2-0 with the Cowboys 1-1 (and missing their two best players for at least half the year) and the Eagles 0-2.
• The Jets-Colts game was borderline unwatchable. The Colts are so badly coached from play-calling to clock management to the use of timeouts to which players are on the field in what situations. It's painful to see them running Frank Gore, down 10, with 10 minutes left in the game and no urgency whatsoever. Or not trying an onside kick after a penalty gave them the chance to kick off from midfield. Or attempting a short FG (and missing) on 4th-and-2 from deep in the Jets' end. And signing a decrepit Andre Johnson when they had a developing second-year man in Donte Moncrief was almost as dumb as trading a first-round pick for Trent Richardson.
• I was down on Derek Carr, but he carved up a Ravens defense that shut down Peyton Manning at home the prior week. Amari Cooper had one big play, but Michael Crabtree saw 16 targets and led the team in receiving. I don't want to conclude Carr's turned the corner yet, but this is a big data point in his favor.
•Steve Smith had a big game against a weak secondary, but he looked fairly nimble for a 36-year old, and he saw 16 targets. Crockett Gilmore looked like Rob Gronkowski on a play where he carried a couple defenders into the end zone.
• He didn't play especially well, but you can see what would happen fantasy-wise if the Niners turned Colin Kaepernick loose. Vernon Davis hasn't had a big game yet, but he's getting targets and looks healthy.
• I didn't buy into Ben Roethlisberger being a top-five QB, and I was probably wrong. They'll be in a lot of shootouts, the loss of Maurkice Pouncey doesn't seem to be a problem, Antonio Brown is not regressing, and Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant will be back soon.
• I'd still take Tom Brady ahead of Roethlisberger, though, as the Patriots defense might be just as bad, and they don't care at all about running the ball. If former second rounder Aaron Dobson (6-3, 200, 4.37 40), who caught 7-of-8 targets for 87 yards Sunday, proves to be a reliable field stretcher, Brady could have another season for the ages.
• It's hard to say who the No. 2 TE is right now, but it's not Jimmy Graham.
• The problem for Jeremy Hill isn't just the fumbles but that Gio Bernard is really good, is better on passing downs and probably would not have lost the starting job had he stayed healthy last year. Both backs should get work, but it might be 50/50.
• As bad as the Eagles performance against the Cowboys was on Sunday, remember this game from two years ago, when Dallas knocked Nick Foles out and held Philly to three points? Two games later, this happened. I've always hated Sam Bradford, but it's probably time to buy low.
• The Packers are 2-0, but they miss Jordy Nelson. No, James Jones, who caught one pass for 29 yards and a touchdown is not a serious replacement, and Davante Adams hasn't stepped up.
• Week 2 had to be one of the sickest Survivor Weeks in NFL history. I recommended fading the Saints, but both my teams, the Colts and Ravens, also lost. My next two choices would have been the Dolphins and Eagles. It turns out the Steelers (whom I didn't trust) were the call. Hopefully, if you take one lesson from it, it's that it often pays to fade the herd because if you did take the Steelers, you're likely down to the final few.
