This article is part of our College Football Best Bets series.
We probably won't get to our 60% goal this year in our simulated section. Still, I'm proud of what we've accomplished so far, and we got some wins on some tough calls last week. We made the right move by taking the points against Florida and Texas and crushed calls for BC, Iowa, USM and Georgia State.
Week 11 Results: 31-24-1
Results through Week 11: 342-302-10
WIn Pct: 52.2%
LT -15.5, NEV +1.5, HOU -9, WSU -15.5, SDSU -11, OKLA-3.5, ARMY -35, WKU -10, CLEM -4.5, BC -2.5, PRV +44.5, PUR -11, TUL -5.5, MSU +19, CASO +54, RUTG +17.5, WVU +2.5, WOFF +38.5, TSU +44, UK -36.5, KNT -13.5, CC-24.5, GAST -16.5, IOWA -12.5, ND -17.5, WASH -6.5, MTSU -4, UTSA -4.5, MRSH -14.5, APP -10, PITT -14.5, BAMA -20.5, MINN -7.5, MICH -15.5, ECU -4, CIN -10.5, NEB +10, BYU +20, RICE +9.5, ULL +4.5, NCST -11.5, UCF -30.5, TULS -21.5, MIZZ +9, KU +21.5, UCLA -3.5, KSU -1, UNT-10, AUB -7.5, CAL -2, MISS -36.5, TENN -28, MIA -7.5, ORE +3.5, WYO +5.5, OKST -10, BSU -27.5, LSU -29.5, ORST +3, CSU -2.5
We came painfully close to 4-1 in our real-money bets and only made one terrible call, taking Utah while giving away too many points to Arizona. 60 percent is still totally doable here.
Week 11 Recap
Week 11 Results: 2-3
Results through Week 11:31-25
Win Pct. 55.5%
Week 12 Wagers
UTSA -4.5 s. UAB
I am going to trust the Roadrunners' rushing offense in this matchup. UTSA is one of only three remaining unbeaten teams in the nation, and while UAB is no slouch offensively, they gave up almost 600 yards to Liberty. UTSA is also a powerful run-first team with a dual-threat quarterback in Frank Harris.
UNDER 38.5 Illinois vs. Iowa
This will be a dogfight between two defensive-oriented teams that play conservatively on both sides of the ball. Expect Illinois to control the clock with their plodding offense, with Chase Brown inching his way down the field. The defenses should produce a lot of punts and field goals, as neither team has done much in the red zone this season.
MICHIGAN -15.5 at Maryland
The Terps excel against terrible teams and are horrible against the elites. Their porous defense should fold against the Wolverines. Their defense has given up 31 points or more in six consecutive games, and Michigan will be no exception. I'm willing to tease this spread up even higher.
Notre Dame -17.5 @ Georgia Tech
Do I think the Irish deserve to be eighth in the country: Certainly not. They do, however, have an offense that can rack up points against poor defenses, and Georgia Tech fits the bill. Tech runs the ball most of the time, and they'll try mightily against a stalwart Irish front seven and likely fail to get much going. Jack Coan and his receiving corps will look to attack the weak Tech secondary early and often and finish off the game with Kyren Williams.
UNDER 57 Clemson vs. Wake Forest
Sam Hartman and his prolific crew of receivers face their stiffest test of the season in Death Valley, and I doubt we will see the same voluminous numbers out of the Deacons against one of the best defenses in the country. Couple that with Dabo Swinney's crew's difficulty in finding the end zone, and you've got a total that will come well below this number. Neither team has a good chance at forcing this game into an offensive shootout.