This article is part of our DFS Main Slate Primer series.
How quickly the season unfolds. It seems like just yesterday we were in "Week 0" and watching Florida and Miami square off. Now, here we are in the final week of the college football regular season. So many huge rivalry games are taking place. There's a lot on the line for these teams, but you could potentially walk away with a big win as well. I speak, of course, of college football daily fantasy. I've dug into these matchups and looked over some stats to find some recommendations for your DFS lineups. All the numbers in parentheses after stats are FBS rankings. All prices are on DraftKings, but don't forget about FanDuel's contests as well. Let's get to it!
|Team||Opponent||H/A||O/U||Spread||Implied Points||Opp. Rush Yds/G||Opp. YPC Allowed||Opp. Rush TD Allowed/G||Offensive S&P+||Opponent Defense S&P+|
|Team||Opponent||H/A||O/U||Spread||Implied Points||Plays Per Game||Opp. Pass Yds Allowed/ GM||Opp.Pass TD Allowed/GM|
Georgia (-28.5) at Georgia Tech O/U 46.0, 12:00 PM ET
Georgia stats: 66.4 plays per game (114), 401.4 yards per game (64), 10.1 points allowed per game (1), 266.5 yards allowed per game (4)
Georgia Tech stats: 63.4 plays per game (129), 299.8 yards per game (121), 31.0 points allowed per game (82), 422.9 yards allowed per game (81)
Will any plays be run in this game? Both these teams play at a slow pace. Georgia runs the ball and doesn't rely on Jake Fromm ($6,900) to do too much. Georgia Tech, well, it's really bad. Geoff Collins is doing a total revamp, and it shows. The Bulldogs have maybe the best defense in college football. They could end the regular season allowing single-digit points per game if they shut down the Yellow Jackets. I think that will happen.
That being said, Georgia's offense is super bland, and I never really want to recommend anybody from its squad. So, in the end, the only player I can recommend is D'Andre Swift ($7,600), the only offensive player in this game that has stood out at all. Plus, the Yellow Jackets have allowed 214.9 rushing yards per contest.
Prediction: I think there's a better chance of Georgia shutting out Georgia Tech than there is of Georgia Tech scoring more than 20 points. The Bulldogs will win with defense and a decent offensive effort, as per usual. Georgia 27, Georgia Tech 6
Louisville (+2.5) at Kentucky O/U 53.0, 12:00 PM ET
Louisville stats: 70.2 plays per game (75), 445.4 yards per game (30), 36.1 points allowed per game (117), 466.2 yards allowed per game (108)
Kentucky stats: 67.8 plays per game (94), 370.2 yards per game (89), 20.1 points allowed per game (21), 336.6 yards allowed per game (25)
The Wildcats don't really throw the ball. When Terry Wilson ($4,500) went down, Kentucky basically just started giving the ball to Lynn Bowden Jr. ($7,300), a converted receiver. Granted, one who has managed to run the ball for 951 yards and seven touchdowns as more-or-less a wildcat quarterback. It's kept the offense percolating, though it would be nice if the Wildcats had any chance of taking advantage of Louisville's pass defense.
I'm going to recommend two running backs from this game, one for each team. On the one hand, we have Louisville's freshman dynamo Javian Hawkins ($5,800). He's carried the ball 219 times for 1,278 yards and seven touchdowns. Oh, and in his last game he rushed for 233 yards, so it doesn't seem like he's going to hit any sort of freshman wall. For Kentucky, there is Asim Rose ($5,300). He's pretty cheap, and he actually has the most rushing attempts for the Wildcats. Rose has also rushed for 724 yards. Bowden will take your only quarterback spot, while Rose will be only one running back in your lineup.
Prediction: I don't know how this will go, honestly. Louisville has a better offense, but it has a clearly worse defense as well. Since Kentucky is at home, I'll give it the win. Kentucky 28, Louisville 24
Clemson (-27.5) at South Carolina O/U 51.5 12:00 PM ET
Clemson stats: 74.4 plays per game (33), 527.2 yards per game (4), 10.4 points allowed per game (2), 236.4 yards allowed per game (2)
South Carolina stats: 76.2 plays per game (17), 351.4 yards per game (103), 26.5 points allowed per game (51), 392.6 yards allowed per game (57)
Clemson started the year off a little slow, by its standards, but that has change considerably as the team rounded into form. The Tigers have scored at least 45 points in each of their last six games. Trevor Lawrence ($8,000) has looked more like a potential future Heisman winner, which was expected. They are a steamroller, and now the Gamecocks are in their way.
Obviously, I am steering clear of any South Carolina player. That's just common sense. If you are willing to break the bank for a tremendous, reliable running back, I'm totally down with splashing cash on Travis Etienne ($8,600). Yes, he'll cost you a pretty penny, and you'll have to work around that, but we're talking about a guy who has rushed for 1,335 yards and has 16 total touchdowns. Since Justyn Ross ($6,300) roughed up his ribs against Wake Forest, I'm going to spend the extra few bucks for Tee Higgins ($6,500). Besides, while Higgins has fewer receptions, he's got 799 yards on 40 catches, which is effectively 20 yards per catch.
Prediction: C'mon. You know the Tigers are going to rout the Gamecocks. Don't get cute. Clemson 48, South Carolina 17
Ohio State (+8) at Michigan O/U 50.5, 12:00 PM ET
Ohio State stats: 77.3 plays per game (13), 531.0 yards per game (3), 10.5 points allowed per game (3), 217.7 yards allowed per game (3)
Michigan stats: 70.2 plays per game (76), 403.3 yards per game (61), 16.2 points allowed per game (9), 268.2 yards allowed per game (5)
Anytime these two teams plays, it draws all the eyes. This year, though, it's a particularly enticing matchup. These are two great defenses. The Buckeyes also have a great offense, but the Wolverines have also seemed like a different team since halftime of their loss to Penn State. Michigan is also at home. That being said, having two defenses this talented makes me worried about these offense.
Shea Patterson ($6,600) has been on fire, but I can't trust him. Honestly, I don't feel like Justin Fields ($8,700) is a good value at this price in this matchup either. I'm also not too keen on J.K. Dobbins ($8,100) in this one. I think, if I had to recommend anybody, I'd go with Buckeyes receiver Chris Olave ($6,100). He won't break the bank, but he's also the best receiver on Ohio State, who has an elite offense. Olave has 39 catches for 637 yards and 10 touchdowns.
Prediction: It's been a long time since Michigan has beaten Ohio State. Heading into the year, some though this could finally be the season for the Wolverines. Having watched both of these teams play 11 games, though, I have to give the Buckeyes the win. Ohio State 24, Michigan 21
Tulsa (-5.5) at East Carolina O/U 61.0, 12:00 PM ET
Tulsa stats: 82.9 plays per game (1), 397.0 yards per game (66), 32.0 points allowed per game (87), 395.9 yards allowed per game (62)
East Carolina stats: 74.7 plays per game (28), 413.9 yards per game (55), 37.7 points allowed per game (122), 501.9 yards allowed per game (129)
East Carolina won its last game, and in the two weeks prior it scored 51 and 43 points. The problem for the Pirates is they allowed 59 and 46 points in those games, both losses. East Carolina has a terrible defense. It's genuinely one of the worst defenses in the FBS, arguably even the worse. On the other hand, Tulsa has run more plays than anybody. If you run a bunch of plays against a terrible defense, it tend to bode well.
As such, I've got to recommend two Green Wave players in this one. East Carolina has been bad against both the run and the pass, so I'm going by air and by ground (no sea involved). Shamari Brooks ($5,600) leads Tulsa with 844 yards and six touchdowns in the run game. In the passing game, I'm going with Keylon Stokes ($5,700). He's reeled in 58 passes for 964 yards and five scores.
Prediction: Tulsa is going to score a ton of points. I expect the Golden Hurricane to find the end zone at least five or six times, which almost definitely means somebody is going to have multiple touchdowns. We just have to find the right guys for fantasy glory. Tulsa 45, East Carolina 27
Wake Forest (-4) at Syracuse O/U 66.5 12:30 PM ET
Wake Forest stats: 82.0 plays per game (2), 450.2 yards per game (24), 30.5 points allowed per game (79), 429.3 yards allowed per game (86)
Syracuse stats: 80.0 plays per game (4), 386.5 yards per game (72), 33.5 points allowed per game (99), 485.9 yards allowed per game (120)
Oh man. This game should be quite an active way to end the year. Sure, you probably won't be watching it since the Wolverines and Buckeyes are playing, but there should be a ton of points in this game. The only bummer is Sage Surratt ($3,100), one of the best receivers in college football, is out for this one. Not that Jamie Newman ($7,900) has been slowed down. Just last week he threw for 284 yards and rushed for 144 yards against Duke.
Speaking of running the ball, Syracuse has given up 206.2 rushing yards per game, so this could be a good day for Wake on the ground. The only issue is that the Demon Deacons lack a standout back. I'm willing to take a gamble on Kenneth Walker III ($4,700), because he has the potential to provide real bang for your buck. He's only carried the ball 80 times, but he leads the Deacons in rushing yards. In the passing game, with Surratt out, and Scotty Washington ($4,900) almost definitely out as well, Kendall Hinton ($6,500) may be getting a ton of targets from Newman. That should be very good for him.
Prediction: Not having Surratt won't be a problem in this matchup. Wake Forest is still going to drop 40 in this game. Wake Forest 42, Syracuse 24
Alabama (-3.5) at Auburn O/U 50.0, 3:30 PM ET
Alabama stats: 66.3 plays per game (116), 510.6 yards per game (7), 17.5 points allowed per game (11), 329.2 yards allowed per game (20)
Auburn stats: 75.6 plays per game (22), 415.9 yards per game (53), 17.8 points allowed per game (13), 325.8 yards allowed per game (18)
The Iron Bowl loses a little luster for being a Mac Jones ($6,600) versus Bo Nix ($6,700) matchup, but this is always a game worth watching, even if you have no connection to the Yellowhammer State. That being said, we're talking about two great defenses, and only one good offense. Also, that offense is missing its Heisman candidate quarterback. I think this is going to be a low-scoring one. I'll be watching it, because it's the Iron Bowl, but I wouldn't want anybody from this game in my DFS lineup.
That's right. I'm willing to eschew DeVonta Smith ($6,900) and Jerry Jeudy ($6,700). Also, how crazy is it that Jeudy isn't the priciest receiver for the Crimson Tide? If there is one player I would grab, in a pinch, it would be Najee Harris ($6,700). For starters, he's a super talented guy who has averaged 6.0 yards per carry and scored 10 rushing touchdowns and seven receiving touchdowns. I also think, with Jones under center, the Tide may just want to rely on Harris to chew clock and rack up yards. He'll also make a fine outlet for short passes.
Prediction: Since Jones is quarterbacking, and since this game is at Auburn, I think the Tigers will keep it close. However, I'll take Bama to each out the win with its backup under center. Alabama 24, Auburn 17
Wisconsin (-2.5) at Minnesota O/U 47.5, 3:30 PM ET
Wisconsin stats: 70.4 plays per game (71), 442.3 yards per game (34), 14.4 points allowed per game (6), 270.3 yards allowed per game (6)
Minnesota stats: 70.0 plays per game (77), 444.2 yards per game (32), 21.0 points allowed per game (24), 293.4 yards allowed per game (9)
OK, so maybe I'll be having to flip from the Iron Bowl quite a bit to watch this one as well. The Golden Gophers have only lost one game, but it was to an Iowa team that has a good defense, but not one on Wisconsin's level. I wonder, and worry, how Minnesota will look against the Badgers. This is honestly its toughest challenge yet.
With Wisconsin's offense, the only guy you can ever consider is Jonathan Taylor ($8,500). Yes, he's expensive, but he's also rushed for over 200 yards in each of his last three games. You can count on him. Wisconsin has crushed it against the run, it allowed fewer than 100 yards per contest, but its pass defense is, while still good, not as dominant (169.9 yards allowed per game). Tyler Johnson ($6,400) and Rashod Bateman ($5,900) have almost identical numbers. Bateman is cheaper, so he's the one for me.
Prediction: Taylor doesn't get over 200 yards again, but he tops 150. I think the Gophers get the win at home, and either Johnson or Bateman will have a big game. Minnesota 24, Wisconsin 20
Oregon State (+19) at Oregon O/U 67.5, 4:00 PM ET
Oregon State stats: 71.9 plays per game (55), 401.5 yards per game (63), 35.9 points allowed per game (116), 466.8 yards allowed per game (109)
Oregon stats: 70.5 plays per game (68), 453.6 yards per game (19), 17.6 points allowed per game (12), 337.3 yards allowed per game (26)
Will the Ducks be reeling from their loss to Arizona State? That defeat basically killed Oregon's playoff hopes. This is the best Oregon State team in a few tears. I legitimately think it has a good offense. Its problem is the fact the defense is lagging behind. The Beavers are on the rise, but they aren't on the Sun Devils' level, much less the Ducks'.
I have to shout out Oregon State's amazing receiver Isaiah Hodgins ($7,800), but I am going to be recommending you two Ducks. The Beavers have allowed 285.5 passing yards per game. Oregon doesn't have a clear-cut top receiver, but Johnny Johnson III ($5,600) leads the team in receiving yards and has five touchdowns, which is good enough for me. We've all been frustrated by touchdown vultures as fantasy players, but what if we got a chance to flip the script? I think I may be willing to go out on a limb with Cyrus Habibi-Likio ($4,800). He had seven touchdowns as a freshman. He has nine this year. If he finds the end zone, against a team that has allowed almost 36 points per game mind you, one carry could be all you need for your selection to pay off.
Prediction: In another matchup, Oregon may be caught off guard after a rough loss. In a rivalry game at home, though, I don't expect that. Oregon State will make a little noise, though. Oregon 38, Oregon State 21
Notre Dame (-16.5) at Stanford O/U 51.5, 4:00 PM ET
Notre Dame stats: 69.7 plays per game (80), 430.1 yards per game (42), 18.2 points allowed per game (17), 319.4 yards allowed per game (14)
Stanford stats: 67.3 plays per game (102), 365.1 yards per game (96), 28.5 points allowed per game (65), 428.9 yards allowed per game (85)
Notre Dame's losses came on the road to Georgia and Michigan. Those are really good, perhaps great, teams. The Irish have taken care of business against everybody else, and Stanford is not a good team. This is especially true offensively. You don't want to even consider putting a Cardinal on your roster for a second.
The Cardinal have allowed 281.7 passing yards per game. Granted, a lot of that comes from playing in the pass-heavy Pac 12, but the fact remains they've struggled to stop the pass. I definitely wouldn't quibble with making Ian Book ($8,300) your quarterback, but the guy I really want is Chase Claypool ($6,500). While his four receiving touchdowns against Navy have kind of reshaped his stat line, that's also a team with a good defense, almost definitely better than Stanford's.
Prediction: Stanford's offense will be stuck in neutral, and Notre Dame's passing game leads it to its 10th win on the year. Notre Dame 30, Stanford 13
Tulane (+4) at SMU O/U 71.5, 4:00 PM ET
Tulsa stats: 73.7 plays per game (39), 445.7 yards per game (29), 28.6 points allowed per game (66), 398.8 yards allowed per game (65)
SMU stats: 81.9 plays per game (3), 506.0 yards per game (8), 32.9 points allowed per game (95), 436.2 yards allowed per game (90)
The underlying numbers early in the year predicted SMU couldn't keep it up, and sure enough its lost two of its last three games. However, the offense has been just fine. The Mustangs scored 48 and 28 points in their losses. The problem is they gave up 54 and 35 points in those losses, and also 51 to East Carolina in a win. That bodes well for Tulane's offense.
The Green Wave have been pretty good against the pass (217.1 yards allowed per game), but they've given up 161.5 yards per game on the ground. So how about taking a gander on SMU's back Xavier Jones ($7,500)? He has rushed for 1,124 yards, which is really good, but he's also scored a whopping 19 rushing touchdowns. The Mustangs have been bad against the pass, giving up 288.8 yards per game. The problem is that Tulane are a Willie Fritz team, which means they are a run-first squad. Still, I like Tulane's quarterback Justin McMillan ($6,400) at this price. He throws the ball well enough to take advantage of SMU's pass defense, but he also leads the Green Wave with 654 rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns.
Prediction: This is another shootout for SMU. Since Tulane isn't set up to fully take advantage of SMU's defensive weakness, the Mustangs will do enough to get the win. SMU 41, Tulane 31