This article is part of our DraftKings College Football series.
Welcome to Week 5 of our Main Slate breakdown for DraftKings. After an SEC-centric main slate last week, we're treated to some quality Big 12 and ACC matchups on the menu for this Saturday. Below you'll find all of our DFS tools along with a breakdown of games to target, a cheat sheet, and some blurbs on my favorite plays from each position.
|Team||Opponent||H/A||O/U||Spread||Implied Points||Plays Per Game||Opp. Pass Yds Allowed/ GM||Opp.Pass TD Allowed/GM|
|Wake Forest||Boston College||A||70.5||-6.5||38.5||80.75||258.8||2.3|
|Boston College||Wake Forest||H||70.5||6.5||32||79.00||236.8||1.8|
|Team||Opponent||H/A||O/U||Opp. Rush Yds/G||Opp. YPC Allowed||Opp. Rush TD Allowed/G||Offensive S&P+ Rank||Opponent Defense S&P+ Rank|
|Wake Forest||Boston College||A||70.5||179.5||4.57||0.8||34||101|
|Boston College||Wake Forest||H||70.5||121.5||3.47||1.0||41||61|
Games To Target
Wake Forest (-6.5) at Boston College , O/U 70.5
The Oklahoma-Texas Tech game is the obvious call, and we'll get to that one, but I want to start in Chestnut Hill for the Wake Forest-BC matchup. Not only do we have the highest projected over/under on the board at 70.5, but the tempo on both sides makes this a potential goldmine for from-scrimmage production. Both teams average 79-or-more plays per game, and there's no other matchup that comes close to that combined projected play volume.
There's also the matter of neither team having a particularly intimidating defense. Wake Forest, which has the No.34 offense in terms of S&P+, gets to go against a Boston College defense that ranks 101 in defensive S&P+. Yes, the same Boston College defense that gave up 567 total yards to Kansas. And Boston College gets to go against a Wake Forest defense that rates as average (61st in S&P+) and is far from intimidating. Multiple players on both sides will be useful and stacking this game will be a strong strategy.
Oklahoma (-27.0) vs. Texas Tech
We've got an over/under in the 70s. We've got Big 12 defenses. We've got a Heisman candidate in Jalen Hurts. We've got six combined players who average more than 10.0 yards per target.
You may notice from the sheet above that Texas Tech ranks 22nd in defensive S&P+. Strange days indeed. It won't matter Saturday, though. This Oklahoma offense is the best in the nation and the numbers back that up (No.1 in S&P+). Don't let the plays per game fool you; Oklahoma's pace may look sluggish but it's only because the Sooners have been able to A) score quickly and B) take a leisurely approach in the second halves of games thanks to big leads.
When it comes to Texas Tech, we have a tricky situation at quarterback that could affect other parts of the offense. Alan Bowman is out, so Texas Tech will be playing either Jett Duffey or Jackson Tyner. The rub is...Texas Tech is being mum on naming a starter and is "approaching it as if both will play," offensive coordinator David Yost said.
Duffey was impressive last season, completing 67.5 percent of his 154 pass attempts with a 7.9 YPA, eight touchdowns, and six picks. He added over 300 rushing yards, too. But this is a different system under Yost, so it's unclear if it fits him well enough for him to thrive Saturday, especially if he's rotating. At $5,900, though, Duffey could feasibly return value out of your superflex spot while giving you plenty of flexibility with the rest of your lineup.
Among the Texas Tech receivers we have T.J. Vasher leading the way at $7,100. He's seeing 11.3 targets per game (great) but catching 53 percent of them (not great). That volume is tempting, but the efficiency along with the high price tag has me looking at other options. McLane Mannix ($5,100) averages 10.5 yards per target (13 targets) and has two touchdowns while Dalton Rigdon ($4,900) brings 8.2 YPT while seeing 6.0 targets per game. If I'm going after the Red Raider receivers, it's likely going to be with those two.
Position by Position
Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma ($9,200) vs. Texas Tech
I don't have much to say so I'll just let the numbers speak for me. His 14.43 YPA leads the nation by more than two full yards. His 47.1 fantasy points per game ranks first in the nation. He leads all quarterbacks in rushing yards at 373. He's Lincoln Riley's quarterback and he's going to be in your lineups. The key will be figuring out how to build around him.
Jamie Newman, Wake Forest ($7,800) at Boston College
If I led off the Games to Target section with this matchup, you probably figured I'd be leaning in this direction. Not only are the contextual factors mentioned above a huge part of Newman's projection for this week, but his own skill-set makes should help him return value, too. Newman has 15 total touchdowns in four games and is completing over 70 percent of his passes with a 9.47 YPA. The passing volume (33.75 ATT/G) that comes from playing in this offense helps bolster his floor, too, and when he's this efficient, he becomes a truly elite fantasy option. His relatively cheap price tag (5th among quarterbacks) will make him a popular option, but it's going to be hard to stay away even if using Newman doesn't separate you from the pack in tournaments. Fading him could sink you, though.
Anthony Brown, Boston College ($6,500) vs. Wake Forest
Brown is an inexpensive way of getting exposure to my favorite game on the slate. AJ Dillon is of course the engine of the offense, but Brown averages a respectable 23. 1 fantasy points per game despite having to share the spotlight with him. Brown has a 6:0 TD:INT and has a pair of rushing scores on top of it. The Wake defense isn't as bad as it has been in recent years but it should still allow some chunk plays to Brown and Co. Stacking a game with Brown and Newman is a strategy I'll test out in at least one lineup this weekend.
Others to Consider
Anthony Russo, Temple ($6,400) vs. Georgia Tech
Russo is at the helm of an up-tempo offense (77.3 Plays Per Game) and has thrown it at least 37 times in each game. He also has at least three touchdown in each outing. Georgia Tech is more vulnerable against the run than the pass, but this still sets up well for Russo to hit value.
Jett Duffey, Texas Tech ($5,900) is a fun tournament play if he gets officially named as the starter, but the potential split with Tyner adds some legitimate risk. If Duffey hits, though, it should separate your lineup from the pack.
Darius Anderson, TCU ($6,500) at Kansas
We Talkin' 'Bout Kansas
Kansas gives up 4.0 yards per carry (non-sack adjusted) and 184 rushing yards per game. TCU is one of the nation's most run-heavy teams (60.24 run play percentage, 25th in FBS) and Anderson is the engine of that run game. He's averaging 8.9 yards per carry over a team-leading 41 attempts and he's scored three touchdowns in three games. Considering TCU's shaky quarterback situation, this sets up for Anderson to see a heavy workload against a Kansas front that doesn't match up well.
Travis Etienne, Clemson ($7,200) at North Carolina
I can't tell if this is a trap or a buying opportunity with Etienne and some of the other Clemson standouts this weekend. Sure, Etienne has just one touchdown since the opener and no runs longer than 18 yards, but do we really think a guy who averaged 7.8 yards per carry over his first two seasons is really going to continue slumping? Etienne is simply too talented to stay down for long, and at a price that's $2,300 less than it was on opening night, this is a potential steal with slate-changing upside. North Carolina ranks just 75th in defensive S&P+ and gives up 4.57 yards per carry. Look for Etienne to get in gear this week.
Kenneth Walker, Wake Forest ($5,100) at Boston College
Cade Carney being healthy (allegedly) makes this play somewhat risky, but Walker has shown to be the best Wake Forest running back by far this season. The freshman averages 10.0 yards per carry over a 31-carry sample while no other Demon Deacon is over 4.5. Even if Carney plays, Walker has done enough to still have a role in this offense. Boston College is going to have to allocate a lot of resources in slowing Newman and the receivers, so there should be some light boxes for Walker to exploit.
Jager Gardner ($4,900) and Re'Mahn Davis ($4,200), Temple vs. Georgia Tech
It's a pick your poison scenario between these two backs, but Temple runs enough plays to supply both players with ample carries. The split has been even thus far, with Davis seeing 31 carries for 211 yards (6.8 YPC) with one touchdown and Gardner getting 33 carries for 169 (5.12 YPC) and two scores.
Georgia Tech has the worst run defense on the slate, allowing 274.3 yards per game and 5.49 yards per carry. Those numbers are a bit inflated from the Clemson game but it's still a vulnerable defense overall. Depending on how much you have left to spend at your second RB spot, either of these guys can make nice additions to your lineup.
Sage Surratt ($7,500) and Scotty Washington ($6,900), Wake Forest at Boston College
We have four games of sample now and it's clear that the Wake Forest passing game filters through these two big-play wideouts. Surratt sees 10.3 targets per game and averages 11.8 YPT while Washington sees 9.3 targets per game and averages 10.2 YPT. Both players have five touchdowns and are locks to see a high volume of quality targets from Newman on Saturday. You can't really choose wrong between the two of them, and using both along with Newman is something I'll consider as well.
Justyn Ross, Clemson ($6,300) at North Carolina
Like Etienne above, the Clemson receivers have decreased price points that are tough to ignore. The price differential of just $100 between Tee Higgins and Ross is a challenge to pick right between the two, and while I'll have exposure to both out of sheer FOMO, I'd side with Higgins if I had to choose a side.
Higgins is catching nearly 70 percent of his targets, a sustainable rate by his standards, while Ross is catching under 50 percent. In case we need a reminder, Ross caught 61 percent of his targets at 13.3 YPT as a true freshman in 2018. He sat out last week due to a hip flexor issue but was reportedly healthy enough to play if Clemson needed him against Charlotte. Assuming it's all systems go for Ross on Saturday, he'll face little resistance from the UNC defense.
Tarique Milton, Iowa State ($5,000) at Baylor
The Big 12 undercard on this slate has some promise to it with both Iowa State and Baylor looking good out of the gate. Cyclone quarterback Brock Purdy seems to have found his stride with the retooled receiving corps. The target tree is pretty narrow and predictable here, with Deshaunte Jones, La'Michael Pettway, and Milton combining for 59.5 percent of the target share.
All three have been productive and efficient, but Milton has been the most explosive with a 17.9 YPT mark. He even went for 8/144/1 against Iowa two weeks ago, so it's not like he's just padding his stats against bad opponents. Baylor's defense ranks 101st in S&P+, so siding with Cyclone players will be my strategy when approaching this game as opposed to the Baylor offense having to face the 29th-rated Iowa State defense.