This article is part of our Handicapping the NBA series.
Player parlay: Khris Middleton to score at least 23 points AND Bucks beat BKN (+170) – DraftKings (2:28 PM CT)
Full disclosure: I have no idea what's going to happen at Fiserv Forum tonight, but if the Bucks are going to steal a game in this series, it has to be tonight. Middleton has been awful through the first two games, but he finally settled into something of a rhythm in the second half of Game 2. If Milwaukee wins the game, that means there's a very good chance Middleton plays well. His player prop is set at 22.5 points (-113), so I'm looking to manufacture a bit more value under the pretense that if Middleton gets hot, the Bucks can climb back into the series in front of a full-capacity crowd at home.
Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 32.5 points (-108) – FanDuel (1:01 PM CT)
The Bucks fan in me doesn't have the heart to bet on them losing outright, but it's hard to watch what transpired Monday and erase that car wreck of a visual. Perhaps more crucially, the Nets seemingly figured out the Heats' bubble-esque strategy of packing the paint against the Greek Freak and the two-time MVP politely obliged, brutally settling for mid-range and three-point shots. If Mike Budenholzer and the rest of the coaching staff refuse to change up the offensive attack Thursday, he might as well pack up his bags before he leaves Fiserv Forum because this series will be officially over. Given everything we've seen from Budenholzer during the course of his lengthy playoff resume, a parlay of Giannis' under plus the Nets to win gives some truly (+261) great odds, but even if the Bucks do scratch out a win, I don't think it'll be because the 26-year-old completely dominates.
Kevin Durant UNDER 32.5 points (-118) at MIL – FanDuel (11:17 AM CT)
Simply put, KD doesn't need to score 33 points for the Nets to win. There are two possible story lines for tonight, which I think both favor Durant scoring under 33. First, the Nets continue to blowout the Bucks, as they did in Game 1 and 2, and KD can take it easy in the 4th quarter. Or second, the Bucks finally show some fight and the Nets relax, knowing they'd be happy to get out of Wisconsin with one win before returning to Brooklyn. Losing Game 3 isn't a big deal. Durant has scored 33+ points twice out of seven games in these playoffs.
Nets to win at MIL (+143) – DraftKings (12:31 PM CT)
After Game 2's dominant performance, Game 3 in Milwaukee should be a pretty easy win for the Nets. Even without James Harden, the Nets offense looks unstoppable, as Kevin Durant is playing some of the best postseason basketball in his career, and the Nets' role players are all stepping up, from Blake Griffin to Mike James. I don't think Game 3 or 4 will be any different, even with the games being in Milwaukee, simply because the Bucks can't keep up with the Nets' high-powered offense. The Bucks have had a difficult time keeping possession of the ball as well, averaging about seven more turnovers as a team each game this series. I expect the Nets to take Game 3 without a problem and complete the sweep on June 13th.