NBA Fantasy Postseason: Post-Draft Review

The start of the NBA postseason is just days away, kicking off on Saturday. While the final seeding won't be set until Friday, the RotoWire NBA staff convened Wednesday afternoon for the annual NBA Fantasy Postseason Draft.

The rules are simple: 

• Eight players per team: two guards, two forwards, one forward/center, one UTIL, and two bench spots.
• Scoring is cumulative and runs from the start of the first round through the end of the Finals
• Six categories: Points (1.0), Rebounds (1.2), Assists (1.5), Steals (2.0), Blocks (2.0), Turnovers (-1.0)
• Once a team is eliminated, those players can no longer accrue points. One roster addition is allowed throughout the entire playoffs.

This year, we had seven participants, each of whom entered the draft with their own unique strategy.

Here's how the draft played out:

Once the dust settled, I reached out to the league to see what everyone had to say about what went right, what went wrong, and how they expect things to play out over the next two months:

What are your overall thoughts on your team? What went right, and where are your biggest concerns?

DJ: Before the draft order was made, my original hope was to have a team comprised of mostly Lakers, and I was ultimately able to accomplish that by having the No. 1 overall pick and using it to take LeBron James. But, ideally I would have ended up with Dennis Schroder later on to strengthen the stack a little more since pairing James and Anthony Davis was never a possibility.

Nick: I have quite a few upside plays (Jokic, Young, Capela, Barrett) but not nearly enough stability with players from the Nets, 76ers, Jazz or Bucks. If the Nuggets lose in Round 1, my chances to contend are virtually zero.

Alan: At Pick 3 I "Reached" for Kawhi Leonard. I thought Paul George would come back to me in round 2. I like the Clippers side of the draw to make it to the conference finals. When I missed on PG3, I now have a naked Leonard. I was able to pivot and build a nice Suns stack with Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Ayton and a few others. 

Alex: I'm glad I got Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. The 76ers have the easiest path to the Conference Finals of any team in the East or West. However, I don't think I stacked enough. I wanted one more solid 76ers player and didn't get one.

Ken: I was surprised Harden dropped to me with the 5th pick. My hope was then Harden first round, Kyrie Irving 2nd round.  But Tim grabbed Durant just after me and I knew he'd take Irving in the snake of the 2nd round. So I had to search for a second team to go all in on, and that turned out to be the Jazz.  I can live with "The Beard and The Jazz". Funny that I could grab the top three players of a number one seed.

Tim: Happy to have a few stacks fall my way (Brooklyn, Dallas and even Washington). But if the latter two lose their first series, as expected, I don't think I have the firepower to win the pool. I need Brooklyn to get to the Finals and one of the Mavs or Wizards to win a series or two. (Or in the latter case, just "get to" a series.)

Shannon: I was hoping to load up on Sixers, Lakers, Clippers and Bucks, as I view those four teams as the most likely to reach the conference finals. From those four teams, Giannis Antetokounmpo was the best remaining player at 1.7, so I was happy to grab him with my first-round pick. My biggest regret/concern is the lack of Sixers on my roster. I had hoped to draft Ben Simmons or Tobias Harris in the 3rd round, but neither player made it that far.

Peter: Drafting 8th, it was hard to stack and team as the favorites had their top players or two taken. So I took a high upside, high risk approach.

Which, if any, of the non-obvious teams (PHI, BKN) did you make a point to target?

DJ: Lakers.

Nick: I didn't necessarily go in targeting one matchup, but Knicks/Hawks is essentially a toss-up, so I was happy to land Capela, Young and Barrett. At least one -- and preferably two -- of those guys will still be alive in Round 2.

Alan: I think most are off the Suns in fear that the Lakers are going to eat them in round one. I am fading that and built with their stars.  

Alex: I wanted to get some Trail Blazers, but apparently, some other people had the same thought, and I just ended up with a grab-bag of other teams.

Ken: I didn't plan on going "all Jazz", but that seemed like my best option halfway through the 2nd round. Utah sure isn't getting much respect for a number one seed.

Tim: Dallas. I actually wanted to stack the Paper Clips, but having the sixth pick and with Alan (a nice guy who I now consider a big giant turkey) taking Kawhi, I had to switch over to the Nets, and by Round 3 the only path to another stack I didn't hate was the Luka/Porzingis gambit. In other words, I'm not in love with my team but it's a dog that will hunt provided with a minor playoff upset.

Shannon: I expect Atlanta to handle the Knicks fairly easily, so I targeted Bogdan Bogdanovic and John Collins after all players from true contenders were off the table.

Peter: POR was my team. I got the top two and figured they could pay off if they advance a round or two.

In a league like this one, how much do you weigh individual upside versus the chance for a team to advance through the playoffs?

DJ: I valued potential games played over everything else, which led me to only targeting players from LAL, BKN and PHI.

Nick: In general, I tend to target players from safer team, but I obviously went away from that to grab Jokic in Round 1. Philadelphia and Brooklyn are essentially locks to get out of the first round, but there's not a single team that I would peg as a guarantee to make it to the Conference Finals in either conference -- partially because the Nets and Bucks are on a collision course in Round 2.

Alan: 70% games played vs 30% star power.  

Alex: I didn't care much about individual upside. I just went with players on teams that I felt could make it relatively deep in the playoffs.

Ken:  I'm all in on a stacked team strategy.  I won this league a few years ago with "Durant (GS) and Celtics".  I'm hoping "Harden and Jazz" can work the same magic.  Only late did I focus on star players not going far:  Butler and Randle.  Hopefully they both play 12+ games, but we'll see.

Tim: Team upside. First off, you're playing to win outright in these playoff pools and almost anything after second place is irrelevant. Second, even an average player like Clarkson is worth far more than a star if the former gets to just Round 3 and the star, say Jayson Tatum, gets eliminated in 5-6 games.

Shannon: You certainly have to weigh both, but even the best fantasy options aren't all that valuable if they only play 5-6 games max. I would much rather have 10 games from Michael Porter over 5 games from Luka Doncic.

Peter: I had to go for more individuals since I couldn't stack favorites. I went with Curry and AD, knowing only one would be on my team after the play in game. But either could have the most upside of any player in this format. I'll drop the player on the losing team for my pickup.
 

Were there any players on your do-not-draft list?

DJ: I made a commitment to only draft players from LAL, BKN or PHI, regardless of how far down the depth chart I needed to go.

Nick: Not really, but I was cautious in targeting players from the Suns and Jazz since the draft took place prior to the Lakers-Warriors play-in game.

Alan: I was off the Knicks. Julius Randal was available late, and I still went with a marginal player over him.  

Alex: I avoided players from Dallas, Denver, Phoenix, New York, Miami and Boston.

Ken:  I just don't see Dallas getting past the Clippers, so I avoided Luka and Porzingis. I almost took Kemba Walker as my last reserve pick, but how do they possibly get past Brooklyn without Jaylen Brown?

Tim: I tried to stay away from Heat players only because this time around I don't see the same mojo as last year's amazing run. I also had Tatum on my DND list because I'm in kind of the same boat on the Celtics. Without Brown, how in Sam Hell are they gonna beat the Nets? Then I picked Tatum anyway. My favorite player on my favorite team. Can he score 200 points in a four-game sweep?

Shannon: I steered clear of players from the Warriors, Grizzlies, Spurs, Pacers and Wizards since it was still unclear at draft time if those teams would make the playoffs. Aside from those options, I actively avoided all Celtics, Heat and Mavs, as I view each as a lock to lose in the first round.

Whether you got them or not, who were some of the players you targeted in the later rounds?

DJ: Anyone on the Lakers or Nets, with an extra emphasis on the Lakers.

Nick: In the later rounds I wanted to target Nets and Sixers players but was only able to land Seth Curry at 47 overall. Beyond those two teams, most first-round series are close enough matchups that I didn't really favor one team over another.

Alan: I scooped up all of the Suns starters and role players like Bridges, Crowder.  

Alex: I wanted Robert Covington and Brook Lopez but they got snatched up before I could get them.

Ken: Once I drafted Gobert early, I knew I was taking Utah's Bogdanovic late.  I wanted Joe Harris late, too, but he went in Round 5.

Tim: Blake Griffin to complete the Nets stack. Didn't get him. Russell Westbrook just because his stats would be so mountainous if the Wizards did have a good postseason.

Shannon: I landed Facundo Campazzo with my final pick, which could be a steal with Jamal Murray out. I was hoping to land Donte DiVincenzo with one of my last two picks, but he was sniped 3 picks prior to my selection in the 7th round.

Which picks were the biggest reaches of the draft?

DJ: Probably my own pick of Andre Drummond at No. 24 overall. I had blinders for the Lakers stack, but admittedly there are some potential matchups when the Lakers may be better off leaving him on the bench.

Nick: In the interest of full disclosure, I did not intend to take Jokic with the second overall pick, so that was probably the biggest reach by default. Beyond that, I thought Kawhi Leonard at 3 was a slight reach -- I would've gone with Kevin Durant, James Harden or Joel Embiid.

Alan: I think my pick of Leonard at 1.3 was a reach. 

Alex: It will end up being either Nikola Jokic or Damian Lillard in the first round since one of them is getting eliminated.

Ken: Jokic with the #2 overall pick seems crazy.  Sure, he was this year's fantasy MVP.  But without Murray, I'm not sure they get past the first round.  I'm also not a fan of grabbing Luka Doncic in Round 3.  How do the Mavs get past the Clippers? 

Tim: Every single one of Shannon's picks, in this draft or in any others he's done in the last decade. I actually would have been surprised more had the guy made a safe, logical pick than had he taken a Piston for his bench out of protest.

Shannon: Damian Lillard going at 1.8 was likely a mistake. I don't see Portland advancing past Denver. If Lillard pulls off the upset, Jokic at 1.2 becomes the biggest reach. I also dislike Gobert at pick 12, as Utah could end up facing the Lakers in Round 1 and Clippers in Round 2.

Which picks were the best values of the draft?

DJ: Kyrie Irving at No. 11 seems low to me since the Nets are the betting favorites to win it all. There's an argument to be made for their Big 3 to have all gone with the first three overall picks, at least at the time this draft was conducted.

Nick: Even with the Bucks likely looming in Round 2, landing Durant with the sixth overall pick was a great bargain for Shoe. Kyrie at 11, Tobias Harris at 16 and Anthony Davis at 9 were other strong values.

Alan: Tim building a mini-stack with Nets is probably the best value even though it costs a first and second-round pick  

Alex: Joe Harris in the fifth round sticks out given the Nets' upside.

Ken: I don't like saying this, but I'm impressed Shannon got Giannis-PG-Middleton with his first three picks.  But why no Bucks and no Clippers after that?

Tim: Giannis at 7 by Shannon, if only to offer him a hand after knocking the kid to the ground. That's major value at the end of the round. Also, Curry by Pete in the fourth round. What's to say the top scorer in the league -- one who's found his groove again on a dangerous team -- can't get 15 games in considering they won't draw the Lakers until long after the play-in round?

Shannon: The aforementioned Campazzo, and Jimmy Butler at pick 44 could be huge if they advance past the Bucks and push the Nets.